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Author Topic: SurveyMonkey polls - Daily tracker!  (Read 1368 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 01, 2016, 06:34:26 pm »
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West Virginia
43% Bill Cole (R)
42% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont
52% Phil Scott (R)
45% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana
48% John Gregg (D)
47% Eric Holcomb (R)

North Carolina
52% Roy Cooper (D)
46% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri
54% Chris Koster (D)
44% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana
53% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
39% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota
68% Doug Burgum (R)
29% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon
54% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
42% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
42% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire
53% Colin Van Ostern (D)
43% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware
60% John Carney (D, inc.)
36% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah
61% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
35% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArckM2TXYweURSNFU/view
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 03:18:08 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged




WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?


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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 06:44:37 pm »
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Those Missouri and Vermont numbers are very comforting. Indiana is a little worrying, but ultimately I don't think Young is going to win by more than the 4 point margin this poll has him winning by, so Gregg should be okay considering he still leads even in this sample.

But WV.................

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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 06:50:24 pm »
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B-B-B-B-BUT ATLAS TOLD ME THAT JUSTICE WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE! MUH ANCESTRAL DEMOCRATS. MUH TICKET SPLITTERS. MUH PERSONAL POPULARITY. MUH GOOD FIT. MUH RIGHT KIND OF DEMOCRAT. MUH STRONG CANDIDATE. MUH COAL MINERS. MUH JUNK POLLS. MUH DEM INTERNALS. MUH POPULISTS!!!!!

Called it. Justice will lose because he is a member of the anti-white hate group, meaning he has a (D) after his name. Hopefully you all acknowledge that the Senate race in 2018 is safe R after Justice loses, so we don't need to go through this same song and dance for another 2 years...
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 06:53:01 pm »
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I'm not as cocky as IceSpear on this topic, but Cole leading in WV is not a shocking data point - West Virignia polls tend to over-estimate Democrat support, sometimes significantly.
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 06:54:07 pm »
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B-B-B-B-BUT ATLAS TOLD ME THAT JUSTICE WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE! MUH ANCESTRAL DEMOCRATS. MUH TICKET SPLITTERS. MUH PERSONAL POPULARITY. MUH GOOD FIT. MUH RIGHT KIND OF DEMOCRAT. MUH STRONG CANDIDATE. MUH COAL MINERS. MUH JUNK POLLS. MUH DEM INTERNALS. MUH POPULISTS!!!!!

Called it. Justice will lose because he is a member of the anti-white hate group, meaning he has a (D) after his name. Hopefully you all acknowledge that the Senate race in 2018 is safe R after Justice loses, so we don't need to go through this same song and dance for another 2 years...

I'll be watching not only this race, but the row offices + WV-2 as well, in determining where to start Manchin's race. Under no circumstances would I count him out on day one though, he's an extremely skilled politician.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 07:00:29 pm »
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I'm not as cocky as IceSpear on this topic, but Cole leading in WV is not a shocking data point - West Virignia polls tend to over-estimate Democrat support, sometimes significantly.

And Justice is at a measly 42%. Hmm, I wonder who those undecideds will break for...

Nah, can't be...Atlas told me this will be a Justice landslide. He's such a populist good fit!!!! <33333
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 07:07:06 pm »
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B-B-B-B-BUT ATLAS TOLD ME THAT JUSTICE WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE! MUH ANCESTRAL DEMOCRATS. MUH TICKET SPLITTERS. MUH PERSONAL POPULARITY. MUH GOOD FIT. MUH RIGHT KIND OF DEMOCRAT. MUH STRONG CANDIDATE. MUH COAL MINERS. MUH JUNK POLLS. MUH DEM INTERNALS. MUH POPULISTS!!!!!

Called it. Justice will lose because he is a member of the anti-white hate group, meaning he has a (D) after his name. Hopefully you all acknowledge that the Senate race in 2018 is safe R after Justice loses, so we don't need to go through this same song and dance for another 2 years...

I'll be watching not only this race, but the row offices + WV-2 as well, in determining where to start Manchin's race. Under no circumstances would I count him out on day one though, he's an extremely skilled politician.

So you won't learn your lesson? I look forward to the "could Nick Rahall make it a race against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020? WV still likes the "right type of Democrat!!!11!!" threads. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

LOL, Manchin will be in WAY worse shape than Justice. For one thing, governor's races are inherently less partisan. Second, Justice is far more popular, Manchin's approval is mediocre. Third, Justice has self funded, Manchin will not be able to. Fourth, Justice is not weighed down with Manchin's voting record where he "sided with Obama ___%" of the time. Fifth, Justice has disowned Hillary, Manchin has endorsed her. Sixth, Dem turnout will be lower in a midterm, even in a state like WV. Seventh, Manchin will either have to deal with a toxic Hillary administration or a popular Trump administration campaigning against him. Eighth, Manchin will probably get a stronger opponent than the hapless Cole. These are big reasons why Justice could keep it within single digits, yet Manchin's Blanching (or retirement) is inevitable.

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 07:09:06 pm by IceSpear »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 07:09:16 pm »
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Now you finally know how I feel about NH, IceSpear. lol

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.

Wait, who exactly do you mean here?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 07:13:25 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged




WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?


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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 07:15:34 pm »
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Now you finally know how I feel about NH, IceSpear. lol

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.

Wait, who exactly do you mean here?

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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 07:23:42 pm »
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Why are people even paying attention to these polls? They're clearly junk.
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 07:25:43 pm »
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Why are people even paying attention to these polls? They're clearly junk.

Tbh, these are much more believable than their Senate numbers.

@IceSpear: Ah, I see. lol
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WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?


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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 07:31:21 pm »
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Why are people even paying attention to these polls? They're clearly junk.

Tbh, these are much more believable than their Senate numbers.

@IceSpear: Ah, I see. lol

True, but the fact that the Senate polls exist tells me that these are probably bad too.
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2016, 07:38:59 pm »
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Now you finally know how I feel about NH, IceSpear. lol

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.

Wait, who exactly do you mean here?

And you both sound like fvcking losers.
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 07:44:21 pm »
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Now you finally know how I feel about NH, IceSpear. lol

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.

Wait, who exactly do you mean here?

And you both sound like fvcking losers.

Jeez, someone's cranky. Well, I can see why after you made these posts...

I'm beyond excited to hear your pivoting and how you'll somehow find a way to trash WV when they elect Justice or at the very worst BARELY elect Cole.

There will be no pivot since Cole is inevitable. And I was still right even if Cole wins by a single vote. I made no guarantee on the margin. Wink

If hell freezes over and Justice wins, then I will admit I was wrong. And maybe upgrade Manchin's chances of winning re-election from 0% to 5% or so.

If the party that currently holds the governor's mansion, is leading in the polls and has a huge registration advantage wins a non-federal election, it'll be "hell freezing over," huh?

Get a grip, this is lamer than TN Vol, who at least takes real numbers and results and exaggerates them.
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 07:46:02 pm »
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And you both sound like fvcking losers.

Nah, come on. You should be happy to see the GOP picking up the governorship in Vermont (I think they have a really good chance of winning there), even if Republicans are about to get crushed across the board in NH. Smiley Remember when Sununu was inevitable or going to make this a Tossup because MUH ELASTICITY, MUH SUNUNU NAME and MUH SWING STATE. I look forward to all the "Can Kelly Ayotte beat Jeanne Shaheen in 2020?" and "Can Kasich/Rubio/LePage/Trump/etc. beat President Clinton in NH?" threads in 2019 and 2020. Smiley
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WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?


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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2016, 08:50:57 pm »
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It has nothing to do with your respective points, and you know that.  It's that you're both blindly hateful jerks, incapable of any discourse that isn't actively promoting your theories, when these states are brought up.  You couldn't possibly discuss the cute small towns that dot NH without insufferably bringing up how it's a sexist feminazi state, and IceSpear could never discuss the beautiful rolling hills of WV without talking about how the state's people are stupid hicks.

It's unhealthy, but what bothers me is simply that it's annoying as shlt.
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2016, 09:45:02 pm »
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It has nothing to do with your respective points, and you know that.  It's that you're both blindly hateful jerks, incapable of any discourse that isn't actively promoting your theories, when these states are brought up.  You couldn't possibly discuss the cute small towns that dot NH without insufferably bringing up how it's a sexist feminazi state, and IceSpear could never discuss the beautiful rolling hills of WV without talking about how the state's people are stupid hicks.

It's unhealthy, but what bothers me is simply that it's annoying as shlt.

Well, if Atlas would just accept WV is now solid R at all levels and will not be electing Democrats any time soon outside of freak circumstances because they see them as an anti-white hate group, I wouldn't talk about it as much. Wink You don't see me constantly insisting Oklahoma or Alabama are solid R because everyone already accepts it...
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2016, 10:10:17 pm »
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Many of these numbers are quite plausible, though I think if you switch ND and UT, it'd be more believable.
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 08:33:39 am »
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This election is going to be much better for Cole than you all expect.

Please don't try to tell me that WV-2 is competitive. It's not. Mark Hunt is a dreadful candidate.
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 08:41:10 am »
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Oh, everyone clinging to the West Virginia poll as proof that Justice is a natural leader in this race, Shelley Capito beat Natalie Tennant by 17 in the September WV Poll. In May, that number was 11. On election day, ballots added up to a 62-34 lead for Shelley.

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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 08:43:42 am »
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It has nothing to do with your respective points, and you know that.  It's that you're both blindly hateful jerks, incapable of any discourse that isn't actively promoting your theories, when these states are brought up.  You couldn't possibly discuss the cute small towns that dot NH without insufferably bringing up how it's a sexist feminazi state, and IceSpear could never discuss the beautiful rolling hills of WV without talking about how the state's people are stupid hicks.

It's unhealthy, but what bothers me is simply that it's annoying as shlt.
*mic drop*
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2016, 09:24:40 am »
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Does it surprise anyone that a candidate who spells his last name the same way most West Virginians spell their pet industry is leading there?

Stop me if that joke has already been made.
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2016, 12:13:20 pm »
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Overall this isn't an actual wash for the Democrats.

I think Democrats in the end would happy with this exchange, they would gain Indiana and North Carolina (2 very sizable states w/industries and populations that are thriving) while Republicans would take Vermont and West Virginia (two states with either economic woes, stagnant growth in population, and/or are hostile environment's for the incumbent).


Of course the Democrats would probably be even happier to keep all their mansions they have, but if they had to lose two these two would probably be acceptable losses.
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2016, 12:55:50 pm »
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As long as Phil Scott wins next Tuesday, I will be a happy man.
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2016, 03:22:13 pm »
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Today's numbers (Oct 26 - Nov 1)

West Virginia - D+2
43% Jim Justice (D)
42% Bill Cole (R)

Vermont - R+4
54% Phil Scott (R)
43% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana - R+3
49% Eric Holcomb (R)
47% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - D+1
52% Roy Cooper (D)
45% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - R+4
52% Chris Koster (D)
46% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - R+4
51% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
41% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota - D+2
67% Doug Burgum (R)
30% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - D+1
54% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
41% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - D+1
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
41% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - No change
53% Colin Van Ostern (D)
43% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - R+3
58% John Carney (D, inc.)
37% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - R+1
61% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
34% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreDluOWJFc0xsSzA/view
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WI is definitely more winnable than NH. Why are they going to waste money in NH when Climbing Maggie is ridiculously safe?


STEFANY SHAHEEN FOR GOVERNOR IN 2018!

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