FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8

[psychprofessor]

A lot of registered Republican Latino's are crossing over...thank you Cubans!

[psychprofessor]

I do think alot of pollsters are having trouble with likely voter screens this year, and many latinos in Florida who vote early are less likely to be included in said voter screens.

This also jives with Clinton's team driving more unlikely Latino's to the early vote and R's getting more reliable voters.

But this is one state where it makes sense that there would be a huge R cross-over, with Cubans in Miami-Dade.

[psychprofessor]

I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.

Latino Decisions had her above 70 with Hispanics in Florida...which was a huge increase over Obama.

[psychprofessor]

This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.

Eh, this poll has very sound methodology - they are able to go back to a voter registration list and call people. That gives you a really good sample and then you can model that sample to demographics, such as gender, race, partisan divide, etc...