FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8

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I know that they use a "secret sauce", but this is well removed from what we've seen recently and that R cross over can't be right. I do think she's leading FL slightly, but until I see more, I'm reluctant to get too hyped up on this "demos show FL's running well ahead" thing. Put it in the mix, it's something in a time of crap and nothing, polling wise.

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How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump




This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

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Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

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If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.

This is a good and important point that allloootttt of people don't seem to be taking into account.

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538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.

His model has gotten odd in the last month or so. Every poll seems to do something other than you expect it to in the model. Not sure the reason. His topline is still reasonable enough, but the day to day is usually

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How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

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Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.

LBP is young, immature, and thinks he's clever. The quicker you learn to just siphon the occasional good out of his posts and just move on from him, the better for your health.