Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,123
Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
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« on: November 02, 2016, 09:16:28 AM » |
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Florida and Ohio are coin flips, and nothing between now and Election Day will change that. North Carolina leans to Clinton, Iowa and Arizona lean to Trump.
Unless we see a succession of polls with Trump leading a state in the firewall, this map is nearly impossible for Trump to overcome.
Best case for Trump:
Ohio: coin flip
Florida: coin flip
North Carolina: coin flip
Firewall breach: coin flip.
When the race is this close right before the election, these events are nearly independent. So in Trump's best case going in, he still only has a 1/16 shot. If we don't see a door open for him in the firewall, his chances are nearly zero.
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