Does McMuffin realistically have a chance (>1%) of becoming president?

[dax00]

I personally put his odds at 60:1

[ProudModerate2]

Zero.

[Gustaf]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

And just getting to that scenario involves 2 events occurring:

a) McMullin winning Utah (which seems to be a roughly 50-50 shot, at best)
b) No one having an electoral majority (which is unlikely, especially in the event he wins Utah since I think that'd suggest Trump not doing well enough to break the freiwal).

Once you multiply these very low-probability events with each other you end up with basically nothing.

[Erc]

538 puts the chances of a scenario in which McMullin wins EVs and in which nobody else get to 270 at around 0.6% chance.  He'd then need to win in the House, which seems highly unlikely (1 in 10, at best?  Democrats would have to win the Senate and there'd need to be a significant anti-Trump revolt.)

This doesn't account for the possibility of faithless electors in the event of a 269-269 tie, but I don't think he's exactly credible if he doesn't win Utah.

Less than 0.1% chance, and I think that's even being optimistic; 0.02% (1 in 5000) sounds about right.  So, about Leicester City territory.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

The only possibility is Trump becoming just too toxic (some really major bombshell) between the election and congressional vote.

This is literally the only chance a dude who won one small state (and likely placed within single digit nationally) would have a shot.

We really seem to be overestimating third party candidates on this forum.

[Gustaf]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

The only possibility is Trump becoming just too toxic (some really major bombshell) between the election and congressional vote.

This is literally the only chance a dude who won one small state (and likely placed within single digit nationally) would have a shot.

We really seem to be overestimating third party candidates on this forum.

Right, and I struggle to see what sort of plausible thing could happen to make House Republicans abandon Trump by now.

Especially since the House is filled with reactionaries who like him more than statewide office holders.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

The only possibility is Trump becoming just too toxic (some really major bombshell) between the election and congressional vote.

This is literally the only chance a dude who won one small state (and likely placed within single digit nationally) would have a shot.

We really seem to be overestimating third party candidates on this forum.

Right, and I struggle to see what sort of plausible thing could happen to make House Republicans abandon Trump by now.

Especially since the House is filled with reactionaries who like him more than statewide office holders.

Not to mention that blantantly disregarding how millions of Republicans voted would be rather risky.

[7,052,770]

No. If nobody hits 270 on Election Night, a few electors will flip to Hillary and give it to her in December. It won't make it to the House.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No.  House Republicans aren't suicidal.

[Nym90]

Here's what it would take:

McMullin wins Utah, obviously.

No candidate gets to 270 Electoral votes, obviously.

Some major scandal comes out about Trump after the election but before the House convenes to vote. It would have to be extremely significant, enough so to make it seem likely that Trump would be impeached soon after taking office.

Even if all of that happened, the House GOP might vote Trump in and then immediately impeach him to make Pence President.

So this scenario probably requires the Democrats to have taken the Senate as well, thus they elect Kaine as Vice President, therefore the GOP has to elect McMullin President to avoid an impeached Trump being replaced by Kaine.

[7,052,770]

Here's what it would take:

McMullin wins Utah, obviously.

No candidate gets to 270 Electoral votes, obviously.

Some major scandal comes out about Trump after the election but before the House convenes to vote. It would have to be extremely significant, enough so to make it seem likely that Trump would be impeached soon after taking office.

Even if all of that happened, the House GOP might vote Trump in and then immediately impeach him to make Pence President.

So this scenario probably requires the Democrats to have taken the Senate as well, thus they elect Kaine as Vice President, therefore the GOP has to elect McMullin President to avoid an impeached Trump being replaced by Kaine.

I would think that if it's 266-266-6 or something like that, the Democrats will have 7 electors in California vote for Sanders or some other Democrat to get McMullin out of the House ballot and a second Democrat onto it.

I chose California, because it should be one of the last states to cast its electoral votes, so they could pull the plug on the plan if some Republican electors crossed over to vote Hillary. Also, it would avoid spilling the beans on the plan in case Republicans don't anticipate it.


ETA: Yes, this is contradictory to my post from earlier in the thread. This would just be a fallback if they can't flip electors.

[Lincoln Republican]

McMullin has 0 chance.

[Enduro]

McMullin has 0 chance.

[Nym90]

There is zero chance that electors from one party would back the other party's candidate. The electors themselves are the most partisan people in the country.

[King]

if you want the government to collapse, install a CIA agent who got less than 1% as leader.

people talk of Trump-Clinton unpopularity but 80% of voters have a favorable opinion of one of them. You'd anger almost everyone with anyone else.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

No. If nobody hits 270 on Election Night, a few electors will flip to Hillary and give it to her in December. It won't make it to the House.

Nope. Electors will not flip to Hillary. It will go to the house and McMullin has a shot.

[BaldEagle1991]

He has the same chance being elected President as anyone of us dating Kate Upton.

[Wisconsin+17]

No, but he does have a chance of playing spoiler. The map where Trump has everything break his way, minus Utah, would LMFAO.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if spoiler then alaska for hillary...even morr...hillaryious.

otherwise:

if the house decides....

75% trump wins

25% ryan wins

any questions?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

He has the same chance being elected President as anyone of us dating Kate Upton.

Political fun fact, her uncle, Fred Upton, is a Republican congressman from Michigan and is a #NeverTrump supporter.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

SC puts him over the top.