absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[rafta_rafta]

Trump can win independents by 20 and still lose with this margin. And there is no evidence that Trump is winning by 20

[Pandaguineapig]

It's important to realize that Ralston got half of the competitive elections in 2014 wrong before we start worshipping him

[Tender Branson]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

[heatcharger]

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Exactly. Stop taking this troll seriously.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

[Tender Branson]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

A raw vote total, yes.

But nobody knows how they voted ... so making any conclusions from them is pretty stupid.

Especially a call coming from a major political journalist like him.

[win win]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

[Ebsy]

This, is, um, terribly flawed analysis. Basically sets up a straw man of Ralston's argument, and proceeds to use terrible assumptions to defeat it.

[Devout Centrist]

CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.

CNN's "poll" also put Trump ahead in Clark County (!).

[Speed of Sound]

CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.

CNN's "poll" also put Trump ahead in Clark County (!).

And, once again, self-ID indies and registered UFAs are really really different polls of voters.

[Devout Centrist]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

That's an unrealistic swing from 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

he seems to be right for a loooong time and even EV-projection sceptics like sean trende give him the benefit of the doubt.

especially the urban clark democrats and the latinos....

does anyone think, trump will overperform mostly in latino states?

MI/OH/IA even PA, NH/maine seem much more likely.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Well, Ralston obviously wants to see Clinton, Masto and other Democrats win, but I don't know if he's wrong. Let's just wait and see.

I agree, I hate when people assume how people voted because of the letter by their name or on their voter cards...

[Ebsy]

Well, Ralston obviously wants to see Clinton, Masto and other Democrats win, but I don't know if he's wrong. Let's just wait and see.

I agree, I hate when people assume how people voted because of the letter by their name or on their voter cards...

That's a concern in some states, but not Nevada.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ralston also said that the UNAFF this year are less white than ever before.

do you really think, this massive latino surge yesterday come only from card-carrying democrats?

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"Example of down-ballot impact of what happened Fri in Vegas:
Dems added 4K voters to lead in #nv04. 4K! @RepHardy can't beat the math there."

[Yank2133]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

[ApatheticAustrian]

DT doesn't need NV but it kills his NH/ME-2 route.

he is now doomed to win OH/IA/FL/NC/AZ/UT/GA aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand MI/PA.

[alomas]

Now he needs Pennsylvania or Michigan. The good thing is if he wins PA he can afford to lose NC, win NH and ME-02, although that sounds difficult of course.

Not a lot of polls today

[HillOfANight]

CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.

CNN's "poll" also put Trump ahead in Clark County (!).

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/793853543065190400
CNN savaged its own polling division and doesn't believe those crosstabs.

[BoAtlantis]

I know it's a biased source but here is Robby Mook.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/campaign-trump-clinton.html?ref=politics

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there."

[Yank2133]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

A raw vote total, yes.

But nobody knows how they voted ... so making any conclusions from them is pretty stupid.

Especially a call coming from a major political journalist like him.

Give me a break, Tender.

It is ****ing Clark County!

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am pretty nervous and doubtful myself but if the urban centers aren't voting against trump no one is.

[The Other Castro]

Guyz here me out, MA is up 2000% voting this year and we dont know if these are Dems. Trump winning? maybeeeeee

[Devout Centrist]

Guyz here me out, MA is up 2000% voting this year and we dont know if these are Dems. Trump winning? maybeeeeee

#TRUMPSLIDE