absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Lief 🗽]

Uh, Ralston isn't a Democrat.  He pretty clearly does not like Hillary Clinton (even if he probably prefers her to Trump).  He's also been very negative about Harry Reid.  I think he just hates all politicians.  I don't get the impression that he cares very much about the fortunes of Heck versus Cortez Masto.

[Yank2133]

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But yeah.....he can still win NV.

[The Other Castro]

[Ebsy]

Uh, Ralston isn't a Democrat.  He pretty clearly does not like Hillary Clinton (even if he probably prefers her to Trump).  He's also been very negative about Harry Reid.  I think he just hates all politicians.  I don't get the impression that he cares very much about the fortunes of Heck versus Cortez Masto.

Ralston likes competitive races because it makes him more important.

[BoAtlantis]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

[Holmes]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

Uh, Clinton's D vote isn't gonna be less than Trump's R vote in Nevada. This isn't West Virginia, or Oklahoma, or Alabama.

[Ozymandias]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  2h2 hours ago
Our polling has basically found everyone voting for Hillary voting for Cortez Masto too- different dynamic from 2012 on ticket splitting

[Mallow]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

This narrative is based on your incorrect assumption that Romney won the Others' category by 7 in 2012, so a Trump +10 with Others wouldn't be surprising. That is simply not true. You're comparing apples to oranges. Independent self-identification is not equivalent to Other party registration in NV.

If we assume D's voted for Obama in 2012 at about an equal rate as R's voted for Romney, the Others category would actually have voted Obama in NV in 2012, not Romney by 7. Even with your extremely low Democratic Clinton support, Trump winning Others by 40/50 when Romney lost them would be an extreme swing.

For reference, the numbers in 2012 were as follows...
Total votes: 1,016,664
D: 430,186 (42.3%)
R: 370,265 (36.4%)
O: 216,213 (21.3%)

Obama got 531,373 votes, and Romney got 463,567 votes. If we assume something like 90/8/2 for crossover votes of each party (Romney/Obama/Other for R's or Obama/Romney/Other for D's), we get 416,789 votes for Obama from D's and R's, and 367,654 votes for Romney from D's and R's, leaving Others at 114,584 for Obama (53% of Others' votes), and 95,913 for Romney (44% of Others' votes). Are Others really going to swing from something like Obama+9 to Trump+10?


EDIT: If you change the math enough to make it to where Others DID vote for Romney in 2012 (i.e. significantly reduce either or both of the Republican or Democratic margins for Romney, say R 84/18/2) then all you're doing is changing which demographic has to swing hugely (now instead of Others having to swing 20 points towards Trump, they only have to swing 10 points, but Republicans have to swing almost 10 points towards Trump, too!).

[Ebsy]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

But I thought early voting turnout in Democratic counties in Ohio had collapsed?!?!?! Oh wait just the bed wetters again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the timetable has changed for sure.....dem have voted earlier last time.

the finish is stronger and some subgroups are down and Rs are up in some places.

will be a close win...no trump landslide, that is sure.

[BoAtlantis]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

But I thought early voting turnout in Democratic counties in Ohio had collapsed?!?!?! Oh wait just the bed wetters again.

Absentee ballots being down in those counties seems to be partially because Democrats have shifted more to in-person voting.

[Ebsy]

I very well could be wrong, but considering that the big Democratic counties in Ohio are making up a larger share of the early vote than they usually do, does this mean that republican early voting is low in their Ohio counties?

[BoAtlantis]

I very well could be wrong, but considering that the big Democratic counties in Ohio are making up a larger share of the early vote than they usually do, does this mean that republican early voting is low in their Ohio counties?

That's what some of us have theorized.

I think it was BuckeyeNut who mentioned that early voting numbers in big cities like Cleveland, Columbus are up from 2012 but the numbers in Cuyahoga, Franklin etc. are down.

Kasich Republicans in those counties may be rejecting Trump in higher numbers than we think.

[izixs]

So while looking for useful information from my home county here in Ohio like early voting turnout and the like, I ran across the voter walk lists. And to my surprise it had me down as a republican. Which is odd given that in any of the primaries I've participated in since moving here I've voted in the democratic primary.

This might explain why no one from the Clinton campaign has contacted me. But it does really make me wonder if there's been others 'flipped' on this listing besides me. Not saying its biased one way or another, but given that the county as a whole is almost entirely controlled by Republicans, if there is an intentional action on this, its pretty clear which way it would run.

So yeah, kind of weird.

[Xing]

There might be a chance, a Jim Carrey chance, that is, that Ralston is wrong. However, I don't think there's any better source on Nevada than him. Not surprised to see a whiny Trump supporter say that Ralston has to be wrong and sucks (because he doesn't like the conclusion Ralston reached while looking at DATA, REAL DATA.) Barring a massive surprise, Hillary will win Nevada easily, and I'll be accepting some accolades on November 9th.

Anyway, let's not let a salty Trumpster derail a thread with his #analysis. Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

[MT Treasurer]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

[Person Man]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

[Ozymandias]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

And FYI, the two latest Iowa polls, from Emerson and Loras, both show Clinton dominating the early vote:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

[Xing]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

Thanks.

Looks like the Democratic advantage is remaining steady at a bit over 40,000. That probably means Iowa is set to be very close.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact, if the electorate is like 2012, this would mean a democratic win.

[Speed of Sound]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

[Mehmentum]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Nevada: Clinton is more or less a lock.
Colorado: Not quite as certain as Nevada, but still looking very strong for Clinton.
North Carolina and Ohio: Mixed, looks very competitive.
Florida: Looks like Clinton has the edge here.
Arizona: Better than 2012, but probably not enough.
Iowa: Looks worse than 2012, I'm thinking that Trump wins here.

[izixs]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

And FYI, the two latest Iowa polls, from Emerson and Loras, both show Clinton dominating the early vote:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

Dang, if this is true and the numbers hold, it kind of looks like Trump either is getting nothing from indies (unlikely) or there's tons of republican cross over votes.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

What about Maine?

[alomas]

CD-02? Dead heat I'd say but CNN made it lean Trump for some reason.