absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

This is a great map! Very similar to my current thoughts.

Only major change I would make is I would swap Iowa (to lean Rep) and Ohio (to tossup)-- after all, as Ronald Brownstein pointed out on twitter, there's a reason the Clinton campaign held the Jay-Z & Beyonce concert in Ohio, as opposed to a state they really need.

Oh, and one more minor change: Trump cancelling his WI trip tomorrow-- combined w/ Hillary not going there for months-- is I think enough reason to move WI back to solid Dem (though note that Trump's desperate visit to MN instead is NOT reason to move MN away from solid Dem). 

[BoAtlantis]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

This is a great map! Very similar to my current thoughts.

Only major change I would make is I would swap Iowa (to lean Rep) and Ohio (to tossup)-- after all, as Ronald Brownstein pointed out on twitter, there's a reason the Clinton campaign held the Jay-Z & Beyonce concert in Ohio, as opposed to a state they really need.

Oh, and one more minor change: Trump cancelling his WI trip tomorrow-- combined w/ Hillary not going there for months-- is I think enough reason to move WI back to solid Dem (though note that Trump's desperate visit to MN instead is NOT reason to move MN away from solid Dem). 

I think he's just throwing a Hail Mary at this point.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/794912235399344128

States Trump is set to hit in the final 3 days (so far): FL NC NV CO IA WI MI PA NC NH MN
Clinton: PA FL OH NH

[Ozymandias]

Here's some modeling of the national EV electorate by a Democratic firm:

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  24m24 minutes ago
Noteworthy Early Vote trends among Likely Clinton voters, women and low-propensity voters in our latest SmartShot → http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-30-million-americans-have-early-voted/

[Mehmentum]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

[tinman64]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

270 To Win has great shading. For what it's worth, here's mine...

[Speed of Sound]

Since our Trumpers hate Ralston now, here's McDonald's view on NV this morning:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Ljube]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

[Mallow]

270 To Win has great shading. For what it's worth, here's mine...

Mine is pretty damn close to yours:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Le16A

[Ljube]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

No such thing as shy Clinton.

Wait 3 days and see for yourself.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

No such thing as shy Clinton.

Wait 3 days and see for yourself.

"Hmm, I hate Trump and I've gotta vote against him, but I can hardly admit I'm voting for that shill... hmm... Undecided."

[Antonio the Sixth]

From Ralston's blog post earlier, it sounds like, if he'd have to give odds for NV races, it would be something like 99% Hillary, 80% CCM. Even allowing for more uncertainty (people tend to underestimate the likelihood of unlikely outcomes) and putting their odds at 90% and 67% respectively, I wonder how 538's aggregate odds for President and Senate control would change if we plugged in those numbers.

NC, on the other hand, is not looking good. I trust Black voters a million times more than I trust muh oh-so-smart educated whites. If Blacks are not showing up, Hillary might eke out a win, but Ross is toast.

[The Other Castro]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

[Ozymandias]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

[Yank2133]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

No such thing as shy Clinton.

Wait 3 days and see for yourself.

Nate Cohn would say otherwise.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html

[Speed of Sound]

Going out with a bang in NC!

@seangallitz

People at the front of the early voting line @NCState told me they have been here for 3.5 hours. Easily a thousand people behind them still

[Ozymandias]

This is a really fascinating Politico piece about how much of the real benefit of concerts to the Clinton campaign involves ticket distribution:

"Ahead of President Barack Obama's appearance with James Taylor, for example, the local operatives handed out tickets across the street from an early voting site in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Voting turnout there jumped 80 percent compared to the previous day, making it the single largest voting day there so far — and bumping up county-wide turnout 16 percent by itself."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-concerts-strategy-230784

[Tender Branson]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Funny how some states are ahead of the so-called "all-mail states" (CO, WA, OR) ...

[JerryArkansas]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Funny how some states are ahead of the so-called "all-mail states" (CO, WA, OR) ...

Most of these don't force you to mail a ballot in until election day. 

[Ozymandias]

Check out this video:

https://twitter.com/seangallitz/status/794944547830853632

Sean Gallitz ‏@seangallitz  1h1 hour ago
*ALMOST* this entire line outside @NCState to vote early just before the 1pm cut off. Everyone in a good mood - pizza is coming.

[Speed of Sound]

This is a really fascinating Politico piece about how much of the real benefit of concerts to the Clinton campaign involves ticket distribution:

"Ahead of President Barack Obama's appearance with James Taylor, for example, the local operatives handed out tickets across the street from an early voting site in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Voting turnout there jumped 80 percent compared to the previous day, making it the single largest voting day there so far — and bumping up county-wide turnout 16 percent by itself."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-concerts-strategy-230784

That's what a "GOTV machine" looks like.

[Tender Branson]

Based on these numbers from all states, it looks like overall turnout will likely be the same as 2012 (+/- 3%).

[Mallow]

Based on these numbers from all states, it looks like overall turnout will likely be the same as 2012 (+/- 3%).

But Ljube told me it's a "low turnout election," so Trump should win easily.

[Speed of Sound]

Politico on FL early voting: Lean Clinton

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

[riceowl]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?