absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

R+7 got the Repubs Cory Gardner by a narrow margin and a gov race loss. Even party ID is a comfortable Clinton win there

[Speed of Sound]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

[Devout Centrist]

Dr. Michael Bitzer ‏@BowTiePolitics  5h5 hours ago
NC absentee voters by party & generation: definitely see unaffiliated voters more Millennial & GenX than partisans



Taniel ‏@Taniel  3m3 minutes ago
Few states provide demographic information like NC's; but this suggests analyses of gap between registered partisans could miss some shifts.

And Unaff's have soared in NC, even more so than Republicans.

[win win]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

[Ozymandias]

Anyone know how these numbers compare to 2012 AZ early voting?

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  3m3 minutes ago
Ryan Struyk Retweeted The AZ Data Guru
GOP outnumbers Dems by more than 100,000 early votes now in Arizona...

The AZ Data Guru ‏@Garrett_Archer  6m6 minutes ago
11/5 unofficial #earlyvoting totals for #AZ: 1,590,374 ballots received. 40.1% GOP, 33.7% Democrat, 26.2% Other. (#Marico not included)

[Speed of Sound]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

[win win]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

]

Say waht you will, Trump wins in CO if independents break for him by more than 10. You are telling me you know who the indys voted for this year?

[Speed of Sound]

Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

There is no point in arguing with dxu

He thinks Trump is favored to win any number of states. It doesn't matter what you say to him. He is locked into his own interpretation. Just give it up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

]

Say waht you will, Trump wins in CO if independents break for him by more than 10. You are telling me you know who the indys voted for this year?

Of course he doesn't, but neither do you, I, or anyone else.  So all we can do is draw conclusions based on past behavior and demographics -- which indicate that if anything, Colorado independents are more  likely to break toward the Democratic candidate.  It's entirely possible that this will shift somewhat Republican this year (personally I doubt it, but as we're discussing it's uncertain), but it's unlikely that it will shift so much that the R candidate will win them by 10.  Not in Colorado.  Expecting otherwise is wishful thinking.  There's nothing wrong with wishful thinking and optimism, but it should be distinguished from objective assessment.

[win win]

Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The low black turnout is going to make things easy for Trump in FL.

[Ebsy]

Black turnout isn't low though, so I have a hard time taking your conclusions seriously when you have built them from patently false assumptions.

[win win]

Terrific news for the Trump!!!! A 33% decrease in absentee ballots in the city of Detroit!

"More than 1,247,000 Michigan voters have requested absentee ballots, an increase of more than 265,000 from four years ago; and 918,992 of those ballots have been returned, which is up more than 245,000 from this point in the 2012 election."

However for the city of Detroit, that is not the case.

“Absentee ballots are a little modest this year,” said Daniel Baxter, director of elections for the city of Detroit, noting  that 54,460 have been issued and  38,796 have been returned. That compares with 81,000 voters casting absentee ballots in 2012. This is a decrease of 33% from the 2012 total.

“The city of Detroit is predominantly African-American, and when President Obama ran in 2008 every person, every Detroiter, felt a need to go to the polls on Election Day,” Baxter said. “Then in 2012, we saw the same phenomenon. This election, I think that what we're seeing right now is a lack of enthusiasm as a result of President Obama not being on the ballot."

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/03/absentee-voting-michigan-detroit/93187540/

[publicunofficial]

Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The low black turnout is going to make things easy for Trump in FL.

Did you even read that post?

[Yank2133]

Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The low black turnout is going to make things easy for Trump in FL.

Did you even read that post?

Let him be. It will just make his meltdown even more hilarious on Tuesday.

[Ebsy]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

[win win]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

[JerryArkansas]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

Population loss Detroit, NC voter suppression.  Florida Blacks are turning out at higher rates than 2012, however they are obscured by the rise in other groups.

[Ebsy]

You keep referencing that black turnout is substantially down in Florida and North Carolina but the data doesn't really support that. I will grant that there have been some instances of absentee balloting being weak in African American communities, but these trends have been reversed once early voting started (in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida), and though Michigan doesn't have early voting, the vast majority of the vote there is cast on election day and that vote is always heavily Democratic.

[Devout Centrist]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

You're the one banking on Trump overperforming Romney with Independents and somehow Clinton doing substantially worse than Trump with her base.

[Maxwell]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

yeah but TRUMPDEMS

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no point in arguing with dxu

He thinks Trump is favored to win any number of states. It doesn't matter what you say to him. He is locked into his own interpretation. Just give it up.

Yeah people, let's not feed the troll please.

This is the best thread on the 2016 board and possibly on the entire forum right now. Let's keep it this way.

[JA]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

As previously noted, this could be attributable to the hemorrhaging of population within the city of Detroit. However, those numbers could be offset by likely high turnout among the Detroit Metro's large Arab population.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

As previously noted, this could be attributable to the hemorrhaging of population within the city of Detroit. However, those numbers could be offset by likely high turnout among the Detroit Metro's large Arab population.

Plus keep in mind that Arabs are historically a swing demographic. I have a hard time seeing many Arabs, particularly Muslim Arabs, voting for Trump.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795001664340107264

More early votes so far in Florida than total votes in Pennsylvania in 2012.

So much of the damage to Trump is already done in Florida. Nighty night, Donny.