absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

^^^^^

It is a lot of White Democrats (I thought Dems were more non-white), which is pretty good news for Trump, since his doing relatively good among White Democrats (or rather Clinton is doing terribly), if Upshot/Sienna poll is not wrong.

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[BoAtlantis]

Oh I see it's a typo-- he kept the Democratic numbers on the Republican graph.

Yea I think it's a typo.

[Holmes]

NPAs who voted in Florida being less white and more Hispanic than the state at large is pretty interesting. Less black was obvious.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

^^^^^

It is a lot of White Democrats (I thought Dems were more non-white), which is pretty good news for Trump, since his doing relatively good among White Democrats (or rather Clinton is doing terribly), if Upshot/Sienna poll is not wrong.

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What of Hispanic Republicans?

[RI]

Turnout as % of 2012 total vote in western states (conventional Atlas colors):

[Ozymandias]

Here's correct FL Republican racial/ethnic breakdown:

[BoAtlantis]

Here's correct FL Republican racial/ethnic breakdown:

Was just about to post that, thanks

[dspNY]

Hillsborough County:

DEM: 165,329
GOP: 140,599
NPA: 87,155

Dems have opened up close to a 25K vote lead there and added about 2600 to their margin. Hillsborough is at 72.3% of its 2012 turnout.

Pinellas County:

GOP: 116,087
DEM: 115,244
NPA: 67,992

Dems have narrowed the GOP advantage to about 850. Pinellas is at 65.2% of its 2012 turnout.

Broward County:

Almost 36K voted in Broward today. Dems added 14.6K to their margin. Broward has hit 74.3% of its overall 2012 turnout.

Lee County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1377

Collier County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1142

[Ozymandias]

Ralston's latest update:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

[The Other Castro]

Ralston trolls so hard:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  5m5 minutes ago
I'll be on MSNBC at 6 PM PT with @chrislhayes talking about how I made a mistake in my math and Trump has Nevada locked. Or not.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Hillsborough County:

DEM: 165,329
GOP: 140,599
NPA: 87,155

Dems have opened up close to a 25K vote lead there and added about 2600 to their margin. Hillsborough is at 72.3% of its 2012 turnout.

Pinellas County:

GOP: 116,087
DEM: 115,244
NPA: 67,992

Dems have narrowed the GOP advantage to about 850. Pinellas is at 65.2% of its 2012 turnout.

Broward County:

Almost 36K voted in Broward today. Dems added 14.6K to their margin. Broward has hit 74.3% of its overall 2012 turnout.

Lee County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1377

Collier County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1142

Hmmm... I always thought Pinellas was to the left of Hillsborough. Has this changed recently?

[BoAtlantis]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

[GeorgiaModerate]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

Or in percentage terms, the early vote is about 56.5% female (+/- 0.9%, since 1.3 could represent anything between 1.25 and 1.35).

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

If Trump is supposed to be turning out Trump Dems... he is failing miserably from the looks of it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

^^^^^

It is a lot of White Democrats (I thought Dems were more non-white), which is pretty good news for Trump, since his doing relatively good among White Democrats (or rather Clinton is doing terribly), if Upshot/Sienna poll is not wrong.

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What of Hispanic Republicans?

IDK, but whites are ~50% of Dems (according to early stats), so Trump at least take 8.5% of all registered Dems (if the demographic of all registered Dems is about the same as EV).

Hispanic Reps are ~10% of Reps (according to early stats).

[Xing]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

[dspNY]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

That's actually really unusual. Normally the GOP split is about 52/48 male/female and the Dem split is around 58/42 female/male. That's how you get a 52/48 or 53/47 female/male electorate

[Dr. Arch]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

That's actually really unusual. Normally the GOP split is about 52/48 male/female and the Dem split is around 58/42 female/male. That's how you get a 52/48 or 53/47 female/male electorate

Looks like this electorate might be posed to not only be more diverse (read, epic Latino turnout), but also with more women. All things that benefit HRC enormously.

[Classic Conservative]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

[Mehmentum]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

Yeah that only makes sense if a significant number of Republican women are voting for Clinton.  If they were reluctantly supporting Trump, you'd see a drop in turnout, if anything.

[dspNY]

Orange County (FL) just came in:

22,146 voters cast ballots early.

DEM: 10,003
GOP: 5,673
NPA: 5,983

That's a great result for us. Dem advantage expands by 4000 and NPA's outvoted the GOP.

Also, NV GOP chair claiming "voter fraud" because of big Dem turnout in Vegas Friday night is the clearest indicator they are in a terrible position in Nevada and they're going to lose the state, along with Heck, Hardy and Tarkanian

[dspNY]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

[BoAtlantis]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.