absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Landslide Lyndon]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

I thought he was joking. 370 votes doesn't seem to me a meaningful decrease for such a populous county.

[BoAtlantis]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.

Yea he said most of them are D-favorable counties.

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.

Yea he said most of them are D-favorable counties.

Awesome. A bit more time to get out those unlikely voters.

[win win]

Ralston trolls so hard:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  5m5 minutes ago
I'll be on MSNBC at 6 PM PT with @chrislhayes talking about how I made a mistake in my math and Trump has Nevada locked. Or not.

Ironiclly, he did make a mistake in his math.

[dspNY]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

Most of the state finished today. These are the counties with EV tomorrow:

Bay (GOP)
Bradford (GOP)
Broward (Dem)
Charlotte (GOP)
Duval (lean GOP)
Hillsborough (swing, tilt Dem)
Leon (Dem)
Miami-Dade (Dem)
Orange (Dem)
Osceola (Dem)
Palm Beach (Dem)
Pinellas (swing, tilt Dem)
Polk (lean GOP)
Seminole (lean GOP)
Suwannee (GOP)

Based on the counties that are voting tomorrow, Dems will expand their slim lead substantially

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

Most of the state finished today. These are the counties with EV tomorrow:

Bay (GOP)
Bradford (GOP)
Broward (Dem)
Charlotte (GOP)
Duval (lean GOP)
Hillsborough (swing, tilt Dem)
Leon (Dem)
Miami-Dade (Dem)
Orange (Dem)
Osceola (Dem)
Palm Beach (Dem)
Pinellas (swing, tilt Dem)
Polk (lean GOP)
Seminole (lean GOP)
Suwannee (GOP)

Based on the counties that are voting tomorrow, Dems will expand their slim lead substantially

Great news.

[sobo]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

[Ronnie]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

Can we say that the fat lady is warming up?

[QE]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

That's outstanding - especially because I expect Hillary to get 63-65% of the vote there.

[dspNY]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

That's outstanding - especially because I expect Hillary to get 63-65% of the vote there.

Miami-Dade is going to swing hard against Trump so big voting out of there is good for us. 40,051 voted early and another 10,245 cast ballots by mail.

[QE]

Not entirely related to the presidential race, but it's early vote info nonetheless:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

Can we say that the fat lady is warming up?

Between being ahead of 2012s early vote by 286k and the reality that this county is mostly hispanic that hate Trump far more then they disliked Romney. you'd think.

[Holmes]

The only thing to be cautious about is that some SW GOP counties (Collier, Lee) have really high turnout so far (50-60%+), whereas Democratic counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange) are all in the 40-50% range. Could be that reliable Republican votes in those SW counties are taking full advantage of the new VBM system and are cannibalizing their election day vote, in which case Clinton has a lot more room to grow come election day. Or maybe they're not.

[Dr. Arch]

The only thing to be cautious about is that some SW GOP counties (Collier, Lee) have really high turnout so far (50-60%+), whereas Democratic counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange) are all in the 40-50% range. Could be that reliable Republican votes in those SW counties are taking full advantage of the new VBM system and are cannibalizing their election day vote, in which case Clinton has a lot more room to grow come election day. Or maybe they're not.

Note that polls have found that Ds have turned out a much higher number of unlikely voters.

[mark_twain]

By reading the posts in here for NV and FL early voting, we can expect tomorrow's early vote totals to seal the victory for Clinton before the weekend is over.

I'm not saying it will happen tonight, but probably tomorrow night.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By reading the posts in here for NV and FL early voting, we can expect tomorrow's early vote totals to seal the victory for Clinton before the weekend is over.

I'm not saying it will happen tonight, but probably tomorrow night.

NV is done voting until election day. But for FL, yeah, tomorrow should be a good day.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

[Yank2133]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

It does not look THAT bad for Trump. Or?

[mark_twain]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

Looks like those Hispanics, Asians, and Other/Multi-Race voters wanted to stand up to the orange bully, and rightly so!

[dspNY]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

It does not look THAT bad for Trump. Or?

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

[ApatheticAustrian]

could be really bad for trump as long as there aren't groundbreaking numbers of white trumpocrats who have...for some reason...voted for obama in 2012.

[mark_twain]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

It does not look THAT bad for Trump. Or?

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

He never learned the important lesson that America is not a nation of whites only.

After he loses, whites across the nation will say he is not a "true white" and will turn against him!

After all, he's orange-skinned, isn't he?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The end is near for Trump.

It does not look THAT bad for Trump. Or?

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

IDK, probably, but you can't tell it from this post.

From this post one can argue that Reps are cannibalizing their share. That's it. Or?

[Virginiá]

It is bad for him. The electorate is more diverse than 2012

I'd say bad news for Republicans in general. This kind of bad news is going to be a regular thing for them every 4 years, at least until they find a way to adapt to a diversifying electorate.

..and by 'adapt' I mean not doubling down on a shrinking slice of the electorate (WWC) while shedding every growing part they have influence with.