absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[QE]

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Wonderful news! Trump is cooked in VA.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I am calling florida, Virginia, and Nevada as safe clinton....

Trump will need to take Michigan or Pa to stay in the game.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"NPA's in counties with large Hispanic populations really turned out today:
29% of vote in Orange
28% of vote in Hillsborough
28% in Broward"

[ApatheticAustrian]

if "we" get the ..."taco belt", trump can sweep the middle west and still lose.

[JimSharp]

Ralston trolls so hard:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  5m5 minutes ago
I'll be on MSNBC at 6 PM PT with @chrislhayes talking about how I made a mistake in my math and Trump has Nevada locked. Or not.

Ironiclly, he did make a mistake in his math.

That's funny - what did he do?

Meanwhile, I spent the day having "fun with math" with my D comparing the NV CNN/OCR poll that has Trump +6 with the actual To Date results of the NV EV as per the SOS site. It was a really great way to get her doing some % and fractions while working on something she was into: She wanted me to show her why Ralston said the CNN poll had to be wrong.

We were able to work out that the CNN/OCR poll has to be wrong some place:
Clark/Washoe county Rep/Dem split (47/46:47/45)
or the % of Dems voting Dem (93%)
or the % of Reps Xover (2%)
or the UNA split (56% for R/26% for D (as suspiciously even % breakout by the way...)
or some combo of all four.
But we could not find a way to get the CNN/OCR Poll % to mesh with real numbers unless the final day turnout is wildly out of whack with historical (and this election) voter turnout patterns in Clark+Washoe. We did not, I admit, calculate how far out of whack it would need to be, but it looks like it would involve the Dem GOTV going home on Monday and about 120k Dems staying home.

Seeing how difficult it is to make the CNN/OCR numbers square with "facts on the ground" I wonder if Ralston is not more right about what's happening than the poll aggregators.

[Speed of Sound]

Since we've had this talk a lot, here's Nate Cohn on the Upshot NC projection (I hate helping you, LBP. ):

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[heatcharger]

It honestly would not shock me if Prince William County voted to the left of Fairfax.

Anyways, good news for Dems in Florida: https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795106645558837248

23% of the White vote so far did not vote in 2012
20% of the Black vote so far did not vote in 2012
34% of the Hispanic vote so far did not vote in 2012
35% of the Asian vote so far did not vote in 2012

Translation: Non-whites are making up a larger portion of the low propensity voters than Whites.

[Miles]

@Taniel
Early voting in Durham, NC grew by 17% from 2012 to 2016. It had grown by 4% from '08/'12. County is 40% black; 76% Obama. h/t @LaurenHorsch

@Taniel
Same story in Wake Co (Raleigh, another part of NC's Triangle): early turnout grew 16% from 2012 to 2016. Had grown 4% from 2008 to 2012.

‏@Taniel
And finally: in Orange County (Chapel Hill, the 3rd part of NC's Triangle), early voting turnout grew by 19% from 2012 to 2016.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Since we've had this talk a lot, here's Nate Cohn on the Upshot NC projection (I hate helping you, LBP. ):

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Hehe! Thanks!

It honestly would not shock me if Prince William County voted to the left of Fairfax.

Anyways, good news for Dems in Florida: https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795106645558837248

23% of the White vote so far did not vote in 2012
20% of the Black vote so far did not vote in 2012
34% of the Hispanic vote so far did not vote in 2012
35% of the Asian vote so far did not vote in 2012

Translation: Non-whites are making up a larger portion of the low propensity voters than Whites.

Yeah, as I said, it might indicate that Reps cannibalize their ED voters/Dems having good GOTV.

But how did it look in 2012. Did ED has the same demographic pattern as EV?

@Taniel
Early voting in Durham, NC grew by 17% from 2012 to 2016. It had grown by 4% from '08/'12. County is 40% black; 76% Obama. h/t @LaurenHorsch

@Taniel
Same story in Wake Co (Raleigh, another part of NC's Triangle): early turnout grew 16% from 2012 to 2016. Had grown 4% from 2008 to 2012.

‏@Taniel
And finally: in Orange County (Chapel Hill, the 3rd part of NC's Triangle), early voting turnout grew by 19% from 2012 to 2016.

Yeah, but how did whites vs non-whites growth look in those counties?
If only Blacks was responsible for the growth, @Taniel would tell, wouldn't he?

[Crumpets]

@Taniel
Early voting in Durham, NC grew by 17% from 2012 to 2016. It had grown by 4% from '08/'12. County is 40% black; 76% Obama. h/t @LaurenHorsch

@Taniel
Same story in Wake Co (Raleigh, another part of NC's Triangle): early turnout grew 16% from 2012 to 2016. Had grown 4% from 2008 to 2012.

‏@Taniel
And finally: in Orange County (Chapel Hill, the 3rd part of NC's Triangle), early voting turnout grew by 19% from 2012 to 2016.

Makes sense after the NC State Government made it clear they had no interest whatsoever in students voting on election day.

[Ebsy]

Good news all around.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

[Hydera]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

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The end is near for Trump.

Looks like those Hispanics, Asians, and Other/Multi-Race voters wanted to stand up to the orange bully, and rightly so!

WRONG!!!! these are obviously hispanics VOTING for TRUMP!!!

1. Its funny whenever trump supporters think minorites are coming out to 'actually' vote for trump.


2. Oh gosh i should show you guys pointing out how trump supporters love capitalizing verbs in their sentences.


https://twitter.com/BAKKOOONN/status/795051911036616704

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

Maybe, but that certainly won't save us from Governor Bathroom and Senator Useless GOP Hack.

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

Maybe, but that certainly won't save us from Governor Bathroom and Senator Useless GOP Hack.

I admit, I really haven't watched Gov/Sen races this year like I used to. You may well be right on both counts there.

[Ebsy]

What exactly are the figures relating to the black vote in North Carolina that you are freaking out over?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What exactly are the figures relating to the black vote in North Carolina that you are freaking out over?

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

[ApatheticAustrian]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

-UnAff's that break Dem are up tremendously
-Clinton is doing better than Obama with Whites
-Latinos are soaring

[Antonio the Sixth]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

-UnAff's that break Dem are up tremendously
-Clinton is doing better than Obama with Whites
-Latinos are soaring

- Still not entirely clear. Youth turnout is down too.
- At the presidential level, maybe. Again, my concern is mainly Sen/Gov.
- All 5% of them?

[Ebsy]

According to the 2012 exit poll, the African American share of the vote was 23%. If African American turnout matches that number on election day, then there isn't much to be worried about, and the decrease in share of the early vote mostly comes from increased participation from white and other voters that would have voted in election day anyway, along with the noticeable surge in Latino turnout across the board. Nothing to freak out about at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the 2012 exit poll, the African American share of the vote was 23%. If African American turnout matches that number on election day, then there isn't much to be worried about, and the decrease in share of the early vote mostly comes from increased participation from white and other voters that would have voted in election day anyway, along with the noticeable surge in Latino turnout across the board. Nothing to freak out about at this point.

I certainly hope you're right. If you are, it's going to be a great night for Hillary and I'll have my hopes up for Ross and Cooper. Still far from a sure thing.

[BoAtlantis]

I'm still hopeful about NC.

Most polls consistently show her the slight favorite to win NC.
Mook is going after low propensity voters.
Black voters are down but unaffiliated, educated whites will break for her.