absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Holmes]

No way in hell that Clinton wins college educated whites by a larger margin than the national vote. No way. Either her national vote margin will be higher, or she won't win college educated whites by that large a margin.

[Ebsy]

Not really sure what to make of that graph other than Clinton seems to be gaining more college educated whites than she lost with noncollege whites.

[Sigh144]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

Uuh, no. He's winning them by about 15 from how it looks

Thats what I figured by this graph shows Whites overall around 5 points (unless im misreading it), regardless I expect Trump to win whites by at least around Romney margin.....

[RI]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

[Holmes]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

Along with Hispanics, American-Indians and suburban women, yes.

[Ozymandias]

I found a handy summary site for several states at Project Newamerica:  "Battleground States of Play"

Here are some interesting plots for Arizona (https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/arizona-state-play)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What looks like a 7 point drop for Clinton amongst those without a degree is amongst a group with a 55% turnout in 2012.

What looks like a 12 point jump in support for Clinton amongst those with a degree is amongst a group with a 78% turnout rate in 2012.

So for every vote lost (assuming no change in turnout correlation, even if white voters as a whole go up) through non college educated voters, she's picking up 2.4 amongst those who are college educated.

Have you even read the article?
Hint:

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And the non-col:col-edu ~ 1.47:1

But of course, it assumes that turnout among them will be higher than in 2012 with 47% Mitt Romney. If polls are 100% right about turnout, then Trump has 0% to win.

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

If there are Shy Trumpistas, they likely will be among those groups that "should not" vote for him/"should" be ashamed to vote for him. Not among groups that "love" him

The same applies to Shy Clintons.

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/colorado-state-play

[dspNY]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/florida-state-play

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/nevada-state-of-play

[Dr. Arch]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

Amazing news!

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/north-carolina-state-play

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/ohio-state-play

[Ozymandias]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/pennsylvania-state-play

[john cage bubblegum]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

I'm really excited to see how much Sunday adds to the Dem EV advantage.  It's mostly the high population Dem stronghold counties that have the polls open today.  The smaller Republican counties mostly ended early voting yesterday.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/colorado-state-play

Blacks > Hispanics in CO? That can't be right...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

Not a lot of Latino's in Iowa

There are more than you might think but probably not enough turnout to actually impact a statewide race.

Enough to piss off Steve King.

[Speed of Sound]

Schale crunches the numbers on Saturday's FL voters:

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[dspNY]

Schale crunches the numbers on ethnicity in Saturday's FL voters:

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And with Souls to the Polls, the FL electorate should cross 13% African-American, which is what it was in 2012

[Dr. Arch]

Schale crunches the numbers on ethnicity in Saturday's FL voters:

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Looks like Whites will be pushed below 65%. Today should reach 13% in the AA share and over 15% in the Hispanic share.

[Holmes]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

I'm really excited to see how much Sunday adds to the Dem EV advantage.  It's mostly the high population Dem stronghold counties that have the polls open today.  The smaller Republican counties mostly ended early voting yesterday.

I can't believe Rick Scott allowed this to even happen. If African-Americans can reach 13% of the total electorate by the end of the day, that'd be great.

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Low propensity EV voters:
36.8% of all Dems
29.5% of GOP
54.0% of NPA

Dems have roughly 187k advantage with low propensity

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  2m2 minutes ago Florida, USA
Percentage of FL Hispanic EV that is low propensity:

All: 55%
GOP: 37.4%
DEM: 59.2%
NPA: 66.4%

[Speed of Sound]

Steve trying to resist making a call...

@steveschale  31s32 seconds ago Florida, USA

Been wrong before, but it's hard to see a path for Trump if it's more diverse than 12 with t/o levels near 08.  But that's where we're going

[Ronnie]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV?