absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

He thinks they are making +140k today?

[mark_twain]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

1) Hispanics have been underrepresented in the polls. As FL has a high Hispanic population (one of the highest in the country), this will give her an advantage not seen in the polls.

2) All other things being equal, Clinton was already ahead in FL polls.

3) Early voting in FL takes up a majority of the votes, leaving less votes on Election Day for Trump to make up for the deficit.

[OkThen]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't a piece of it that the unaffiliated voters were skewing more younger and latino?

[NOVA Green]

We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795411822769766406

That's expected. What's surprising is he's seeing 60/40 for Clinton/Trump among Cuban Republicans. That's scary. Southern Florida will be a bloodbath for Trump on Tuesday.

Trump isn't even going to win the Republican-friendly Cuban-American vote in Florida and yet the LA Times poll thinks he's at 42%% with Latinos nationally. Lol.

lots of Silencio Hispanic Tromploco votantes

That made me laugh so hard, I almost spit out my beer, although maybe a little more Spanglish lessons might be required.

Was travelling for most of the day and just logged in, and see some really interesting numbers coming in from Florida, and there is still another hour and thirty minutes in Miami-Dade.

Any of our residents know when we will see final official EV numbers from Florida for today, and cumulative numbers through EOD, or will we need to wait until tomorrow when the SoS compiles all of the county data? Assuming Steve will probably continue to post updates today since he's basically working 24 hours a day through the end-game.....

[Ozymandias]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

As for the numbers: if Schale's claim is correct and 50 K Rep EV this year were Dem EV in 2012, than the actual Dem advantage in 2012 was really just +70 K.

Add to that the increase in unaffiliated, Hispanic, and female voting-- which is reflected in the HUGE edge Clinton has consistently had in polls of early voters-- and you can very easily see how Clinton got up to a +170K lead... and I think he said that before yesterday's voting?

Lastly, as Schale has noted, the Dems still have a +70K edge in ballots not yet returned, and have turned out significantly more low propensity voters.

Putting it all together (numbers + campaign strategy), and my best guess is that Clinton will win Florida by at least 3 points.

[Speed of Sound]

Schale keeps trying to bite his tongue on outcome. Doesn't think Dems will take Duval.

@steveschale  2m2 minutes ago Florida, USA

My win models for HRC generally have Duval at Trump +10% as a baseline. I think she beats that based on EV.

@steveschale  5m5 minutes ago Florida, USA

Dems end up +4200 in Duval. No chance they win county, but also no chance Trump gets Bush04 margins he needs to balance Dade either

[Ozymandias]

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

He thinks they are making +140k today?

No, I think he was saying that their internal polling + modeling had Clinton up +170K actual votes going into Sat.

[BoAtlantis]

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat 
CO Returned ballot update
http://buff.ly/2etaROc 
GOP lead over Dems now 1,935
GOP 639,717
Dem 637,782
Unaf 517,645

[NOVA Green]

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

He thinks they are making +140k today?

I suspect the lion's share of that 170k is if you take 50k Dixiecrats off the Dem list and add the 50k to the Rep number, that is a net difference of EV numbers of 100k compared to 2012....

Obviously his numbers of Dixiecrats are much better based upon macro data level analysis of voter history, party registration, and turnout levels, etc....

[BoAtlantis]

Schale

In Hillsborough, 419k voted early. 531.5k votes in entire 2012 Presidential election. Dems end up +28k or 42D, 35.3R, 22.7 NPA.

[ApatheticAustrian]

However it appears CO Latinos are not surging so far

What I've heard from someone looking at the data on who's cast ballots, and Ds now slightly underperforming Rs (re: no CO Latino surge)
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/795415030120480769

[Ebsy]

Expect Colorado to shift majorly as we get closer and closer to the election. Everything I have seen so far indicates Clinton is far ahead in the early vote there.

[Desroko]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't a piece of it that the unaffiliated voters were skewing more younger and latino?

Yes, that's most of it. Fewer dixiecats mucking up the registered Dem sample is a smaller piece.  

[dspNY]

Orange County (FL) website

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

However it appears CO Latinos are not surging so far

What I've heard from someone looking at the data on who's cast ballots, and Ds now slightly underperforming Rs (re: no CO Latino surge)
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/795415030120480769

R votes do not necessarily equal Trump votes.  One of Clinton's strengths is among college-educated voters of all parties.  Colorado has one of the highest college-educated percentage of adults in the nation.

EDIT: And R votes may include a considerable number of Latino votes as well.

[fldemfunds]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

As for the numbers: if Schale's claim is correct and 50 K Rep EV this year were Dem EV in 2012, than the actual Dem advantage in 2012 was really just +70 K.

Add to that the increase in unaffiliated, Hispanic, and female voting-- which is reflected in the HUGE edge Clinton has consistently had in polls of early voters-- and you can very easily see how Clinton got up to a +170K lead... and I think he said that before yesterday's voting?

Lastly, as Schale has noted, the Dems still have a +70K edge in ballots not yet returned, and have turned out significantly more low propensity voters.

Putting it all together (numbers + campaign strategy), and my best guess is that Clinton will win Florida by at least 3 points.

It was 50k dems switching in just one or two North Florida counties I believe is what the Schale number specifically referenced..

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am not concerned about CO.

it's just true, that Dems SHOULD have a majority of their own since they are now the biggest registered bloc in CO.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK - this pure party breakdown assessment is a wild goose chase. Much like NC, the unaffiliateds will determine where the state is going. Considering what we broadly know about them, I'm feeling pretty good.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Obviously his numbers of Dixiecrats are much better based upon macro data level analysis of voter history, party registration, and turnout levels, etc....

Hm, okay. Though there is no way to tell, if those who switched party didn't vote Obama 08'/12'
According Nate Cohn analysis there is plenty among white non-college-educated that voted Obama, but know switched to Trump (some of those likely switched from Dem to Reps, but not all). Both in Florida and nationally.

[Ozymandias]

From Ralston's latest update: http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"Even though most observers, including myself, have used 18 percent of the electorate in 2012 being Hispanic because of exit polls, that is not as foolproof as an actual look at the voter file. The Democrats have always believed it was slightly lower -- 16 percent, perhaps.

Here's what the data shows on early/mail vote:

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

The more ominous news for Republicans is how the majority Hispanic precincts looked between the two cycles: Huge increases except for one. Here is the actual data:"



More examples in blog.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

Is it not a relatively good news for Reps?

Latino increase vs black/other decrease. Black vote more heavily for Dems than any other group?

[MasterJedi]

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

Is it not a relatively good news for Reps?

Latino increase vs black/other decrease. Black vote more heavily for Dems than any other group?

Not when Trump loses white women/educated whites.

[Person Man]

i am not concerned about CO.

it's just true, that Dems SHOULD have a majority of their own since they are now the biggest registered bloc in CO.

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

[ApatheticAustrian]

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

this site claims pubs have a lead of about 2k votes since this afternoon ...

http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-ballots-returned-reports/?utm_content=buffer26329&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

but i am not sure if this is reliable information.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

Is it not a relatively good news for Reps?

Latino increase vs black/other decrease. Black vote more heavily for Dems than any other group?

Not when Trump loses white women/educated whites.

Yes, but he is doing much better among non-col whites, and there is plenty of them. Look here on Nevada. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html
That's why Trump is doing 1-4% better in polls than Romney.