absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

you could also vote sunday like everyone else?

really? no one?

okay

I would be fine with this.

[QE]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.

Yeah, that will lead to a strong election day performance by Trump alright.

[Ebsy]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.

Yeah, that will lead to a strong election day performance by Trump alright.

There is little reason to believe that these numbers will be replicated on election day. I don't think there are enough white voters in the state for that to occur.

[dspNY]

Broward County has now hit 81.24% of its total vote from 2012

[Vern]

I haven't check or anything so I could be wrong, but a lot of areas that got hit hard by Matthew were eastern black areas in NC. Could that have cause polling places to be reduce in them areas for EV? And if so on election day could we see a them just vote on that day?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I haven't check or anything so I could be wrong, but a lot of areas that got hit hard by Matthew were eastern black areas in NC. Could that have cause polling places to be reduce in them areas for EV? And if so on election day could we see a them just vote on that day?

I think that's the issue.

[Ozymandias]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  5m5 minutes ago
On Florida early voting: "911,000 Hispanics have voted—more than a third of whom did not vote in 2012" http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html …

[Confused Democrat]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  5m5 minutes ago
On Florida early voting: "911,000 Hispanics have voted—more than a third of whom did not vote in 2012" http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html …

I wonder who they're turning out for?

/s

[john cage bubblegum]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

Brilliant.  Dems could very well have a 100k+ overall EV advantage once those three counties are added.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I haven't check or anything so I could be wrong, but a lot of areas that got hit hard by Matthew were eastern black areas in NC. Could that have cause polling places to be reduce in them areas for EV? And if so on election day could we see a them just vote on that day?

I think that's the issue.

All our hopes are resting on that. I'm crossing fingers.

[Speed of Sound]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

[Ebsy]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

[Vern]

I haven't check or anything so I could be wrong, but a lot of areas that got hit hard by Matthew were eastern black areas in NC. Could that have cause polling places to be reduce in them areas for EV? And if so on election day could we see a them just vote on that day?

I think that's the issue.

All our hopes are resting on that. I'm crossing fingers.

I believe that to be the case because when I went to vote I was one of the few white folks to vote the whole time I was there. And the early voting site was in the middle of a white area.

[hopper]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/795348672460505088

The GOP belief in democracy in a nut shell. They despise the voting process.

How disgusting. Voter suppression is real folks and look at who's doing it.

Well If you lived instate and moved to Lewiston you would have to jump through hoops just to register to vote and get your  car inspected even if it wasn't due for an inspection. If you are from out of state and moved there from out of state you would have to do all the things that the orange paper says anyway.

[OneJ]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  38m38 minutes ago
Total black turnout in Florida in 2016 will be higher than 2012.  Mark it.
At 777k as of yesterday. Souls to polls today. VBM & ED to come

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  35m35 minutes ago
As a point of reference, in 2012 in Florida, the share of turnout was:
B14%/H12.5%/W68.4%/A1.5%

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.

One of the many reasons why I'm proud of my race!

[Person Man]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

Looks like the bad hombres have more ammunition than Bubba and his tailgate does.

[MasterJedi]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

I think turnout will be huge this year so I think it's just a lot more people coming out in general, not so much cannibalizing.

[Lief 🗽]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

Smith sounds pretty confident that Clinton is winning Florida at the moment.

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  9m9 minutes ago
In FL, 36% of 907k Hispanics who have voted didn't vote by any method in 2012. That's 12 points higher than whites

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  6m6 minutes ago
I don't draw on exit polls except when I'm criticizing them.
My numbers are all from the DSDE's and 67 county SOE's official voter files

[Speed of Sound]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

Smith sounds pretty confident that Clinton is winning Florida at the moment.

The more you listen, it's hard to find people not seeing that, really.

[Holmes]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

I think turnout will be huge this year so I think it's just a lot more people coming out in general, not so much cannibalizing.

I think there is cannibalizing going on thanks to (and I hate to beat a dead horse here) Florida's new VBM rules. Reliable voters were automatically sent ballots, and those are mostly white, Republican voters, but Democrats took advantage of it too (which is why vote by mail turnout was so much higher this year). In this case, it's best to look at low-propensity voters - who they are, where they are, and how much they're turning out. And those numbers favor one candidate in Florida.

[ApatheticAustrian]

next absurd social media social media trick...


Trump Trolls Find New Tactics To Spread False Voting Information On Twitter
https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/trump-trolls-find-new-tactics-to-spread-false-voting-informa?utm_term=.jmrMdllE#.bu6rKAAR







now 42 million early voters....seems YUGE

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112943618.html

[Holmes]

Restrictions in early vote may account for lower African-American turnout in North Carolina, but I think Matthew also played a role as well. I think most of the missing African-American vote will turn out on election day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

AA turnout was important in 2012....absolutely saved Obama.

but this year, EVERYONE wants to turn out even more and there is kind of an endless pool of potential white voters.

some states can be won without them....more difficult in others.

the higher the general turnout, the more important the white vote becomes, even if minorities vote like never before.....

either most white democrats (who voted for O) vote for HRC...or she loses in a few important states and also the election, even if she wins the PV.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Restrictions in early vote may account for lower African-American turnout in North Carolina, but I think Matthew also played a role as well. I think most of the missing African-American vote will turn out on election day.

Even if that happens, isn't there a risk of polling places being overwhelmed? There is a lot to catch up, so even if Black voters try to vote they might be discouraged by long lines.