absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[GP270watch]

With Miami-Dade, Lake, Palm Beach and Sarasota Counties not publicly reporting, the Democrats lead in VBM ballots by 882 votes (I did the calculations myself). It's very likely the Dems will expand their early vote lead through mail right before the big day

+1

 I did the same maths, Democrats slightly added to the Party ID lead today and that's without the counties you mentioned.

 The combo of M-D and PBC should add to the lead. Only question is will the lead hit 100k.

[Crumpets]

Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even

[Ozymandias]

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even

Oh yeah, I should probably add a caveat: I used total 2012 votes (8.5M) to calculate the percentage that has already voted, but Michael McDonald tweeted  that he thinks turnout could be as high as 9.5M this year-- in which case only 68% of the electorate has already voted.

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

Also he fails to mention them as comparison to the state as a whole or using party registration returns. This guy is predicting a Clinton win in Iowa, a state they have already given up on

He didn't predict anything.  But thanks for trying to discredit someone who just posts numbers.  Sorry they aren't what you want.

[dspNY]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

This is excellent news, especially Franklin overperforming! Clinton still has a good shot to hold Ohio

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

More on this:

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  11m11 minutes ago
Unfortunately I do not have a 2012 comparison for the entire state. In the 47 other counties where I do #earlyvote is up 13.3%

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  8m8 minutes ago
We don't have party reg in Ohio the same way as we do in other states. So not a lot to go on about who these early voters are.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Earlier the Ohio #earlyvote looked dire for the Dems and I thought Trump favored, not sure now. Looks close. Maybe slight Trump lead at best

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even

Trump will need a 32% lead, if he really is losing by 10% right now. But turnout might be higher than this. Then he will need a smaller margin.

EDIT:
If EV is 68% of total as Ozymandias wrote, Trump will need a 21% points lead.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

BYE BYE CHEETO

[NOVA Green]

So, based on this it looks like ME-02 might still be on the table for Dems.

I still have it as a tossup (Trump) EV but now that Clinton's national poll numbers are improving slightly think it is more likely to be a tossup (Clinton) EV.

I still consider ME-02 to be like a mixture of parts of my home state of Oregon, with many jobs dependent upon timber, fishing, and tourism, albeit in a New England setting.

Thanks for the update btw.... ME-02 is trending in the correct direction.

[Xing]

Trump would have to win a pretty sizable % of Democrats in ME-02, or win NPAs decisively to win ME-02, if that's the case. It could happen, but I think Hillary narrowly takes it, at this point.

[win win]

Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even

Trump will need a 32% lead, if he really is losing by 10% right now. But turnout might be higher than this. Then he will need a smaller margin.

EDIT:
If EV is 68% of total as Ozymandias wrote, Trump will need a 21% points lead.

where did you get these numbers? link?

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

[win win]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

If you look closely, some of them are single-digit leads.

[Ozymandias]

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Note that the Upshot's early voting tracker model (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html) currently predicts a slightly lower Clinton EV edge of 6%, because they're basing their results off the +9 edge they found in their most recent poll, which is a little lower than the +12 edge Quinnipiac found in their larger sample.

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

If you look closely, some of them are single-digit leads.

Yes, the YouGov poll was only +6, but since it was sandwiched by 6 double-digit polls (five of which were 20+ leads), I considered it an outlier.

And the Siena/NYT polling of EVs dropping down to +9 is why I guessed that the current lead is high single digits.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Total #earlyvote tally of 46.27 Million exceeds total 2012 early vote of 46.22 Million & more yet to be counted

Woooooooooooo

[Ozymandias]

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

As I explained to you in the other thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.0

where did you get theses numbers? source?

I have separate posts with links for all of these polls earlier in this thread.

So if you don't believe me, by all means double check the numbers yourself.

[Ozymandias]

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

If you look closely, some of them are single-digit leads.

GeorgiaModerate, sorry if my earlier reply seemed a little brusque-- I thought you were replying to me, not RalstonSucks!

[Lief 🗽]

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http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/89ae8247abe8493fae24405546e9a1aa/Article_2016-11-07-US--Campaign%202016-The%20Latest/id-07e2ce33e85c47b1acafaed57f26b96c

[OneJ]

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http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/89ae8247abe8493fae24405546e9a1aa/Article_2016-11-07-US--Campaign%202016-The%20Latest/id-07e2ce33e85c47b1acafaed57f26b96c

Amazing!

[OneJ]

Jeff Gauvin on Twitter :
LATINO SURGE:

■FLORIDA: +103%
■N.CAROLINA: +85%
■GEORGIA: +147%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jeff Gauvin on Twitter :
LATINO SURGE:

■FLORIDA: +103%
■N.CAROLINA: +85%
■GEORGIA: +147%

[TarHeelDem]

Knowing the Arizona number would really help me finish my map right now.

[win win]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.