absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[QE]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  10s10 seconds ago
I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

Wow. That's quite impressive.

[Antonio the Sixth]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

[Speed of Sound]

@steveschale  57s58 seconds ago

Let's look at the Orange numbers another way.

Dem + NPA = 72% of today's votes.

And among NPA reg voters in Orange, 58% are non-white.

[ApatheticAustrian]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

[Dr. Arch]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

Again, we're doing over 3 points better than Obama did.

[Horus]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

[Speed of Sound]

Not sure how one comes to be worried about CO. EVs (which are....real votes) look absolutely fantastic and make up almost all votes in CO and no poll has shown a number like that ever in CO, either. How does one argue for worry?

[swf541]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

[Antonio the Sixth]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

It's a uni poll with no track record and ridiculous crosstabs. If you want to panic about something, there are many other polls to focus on.

[psychprofessor]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

[Dr. Arch]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

Why would they purposefully do that?

[swf541]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

Yea, do we have any new early voter data on Arizona?  I havent seen much discussion on it lately

[ApatheticAustrian]

didn't want to debate that at length...but the pollster has been ciruli associates ...afaik an A pollster on 538.

[Xing]

Unless the early voting numbers are missing some kind of huge Trump surge (or he's taking a large number of Democratic voters or winning NPAs by a wide margin), it looks like Hillary's in very good shape in NV, CO, and WI, meaning that unless Trump can pull a Hail Mary in PA on election day, he's cooked.

[Speed of Sound]

didn't want to debate that at length...but the pollster has been ciruli associates ...afaik an A pollster on 538.

When the internal numbers have obvious problems AND you're an outlier, Nate giving you an A doesn't mean everything you publish must be right.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

didn't want to debate that at length...but the pollster has been ciruli associates ...afaik an A pollster on 538.

A posters can produce clunkers from time to time.

[psychprofessor]

gosh from steve schale's twitter feed it looks like a HUGE florida dem day

Palm Beach County, FL today -- almost 1500 more in-person votes than any other day this cycle.

I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

So they said the kids don't vote. Guess what just had its biggest EV day?  

Alachua County, home of East Florida Seminary! cc: @guycecil

Dems pushing 150k margin in Broward after 2nd biggest in-person EV day where they were ~ +14k voters & almost 11k NPA voted

[dspNY]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

[Speed of Sound]

Schale thought this day was likely....but you could tell he was getting nervous. He will (and should) stay nervous to see it keep happening, but you can tell he's a happy man tonight.

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

This may be the last day Rs lead in the early vote despite so many Dixiecrat switchers this year.

[QE]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

^^^
*4K more than yesterday
*7k more than Sun
*9k more than Sat.
*10k more than Fri.

[psychprofessor]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

[Xing]

Florida has to be getting close to exceeding its 2012 numbers, by this point.

[Holmes]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democrat. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant in the early vote. Rs won the early vote by 500 votes in 2012. If Dems even break even in Washoe EV, Nevada's way over (which we already know from Clark).

Oh yeah, for sure. I feel like a lot of the registered indies in Washoe are younger and latino that vote Democratic (when they turn out), so Republicans would need a big early vote advantage to carry the county. There's only two more days of early voting left in the state and I feel like tomorrow will be another Republican victory but Friday will be a big push for Democrats in Washoe.