absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[The Other Castro]

AZ early voting age groups broken down by party:

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/2/1589828/-Colorado-Early-Vote-Numbers-by-Day-2-November-2

Colorado EV #'s in a graph

CO as of 11/3/16



Republicans narrowed the gap but the remaining unaffiliated voters probably skew Democrats.

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

[Speed of Sound]

That's very good news. It was a hunch for a lot of people, but it's great to see it in the numbers. That's not a small bit of movement in such a close state.

[dspNY]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

[ApatheticAustrian]

to tell the truth, i wouldn't be shocked, if republicans have lead EV the last 2 elections too.

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballots, 11/3

Ballot requests:

DEM: 263,559
GOP: 213,759
IND: 145,645
Other: 2,149

Ballots cast:

DEM: 227,684
GOP: 185,656
IND: 119,710
Other: 1,715

Dem ballot request lead at about 50K. Dem vote lead at 42K, down 500 from yesterday

[The Other Castro]

Ralston is doing a Facebook live on NV early voting in 10 minutes: https://www.facebook.com/KTNVLasVegas/

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

Doesn't it actually work out to 100k less?

Let's say in 2012 there were (totally making up these numbers) 2.0 million Dems and 1.9 million Reps voting early, or +100K Dems.

And if all of them also voted early in 2016, then the margin would now be tied at 1.95M Dems and Reps each.

So 2016 Dems would look like they were running 100K behind the 2012 margin when in fact they were even.

[fldemfunds]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

Doesn't it actually work out to 100k less?

Let's say in 2012 there were (totally making up these numbers) 2.0 million Dems and 1.9 million Reps voting early, or +100K Dems.

And if all of them also voted early in 2016, then the margin would now be tied at 1.95M Dems and Reps each.

So 2016 Dems would look like they were running 100K behind the 2012 margin when in fact they were even.

Yo seriously. Can you all just read my post history? This is literally what's happening. Estimates of the party switching are anywhere from 200k-400k (Schale indicated 400k via tweet the other day after FINALLY acknowledging the structural assumptions being made based on past elections).

[fldemfunds]

Florida - C+5 or more. It's going to be called early. Even if you assume both Trump and HRC are getting 90% of their respective votes each, NPAs break towards democratic candidates by 10-20% in FL. There are also significantly more NPAs this cycle.

If Democrats go into election day with a voter reg turnout advantage of 2-3 points, she may be approach 7-10 point territory depending on turnout on election day.

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  5m5 minutes ago
Exclusive: Who are the 412k Floridians who've already voted who registered after the 2012 presidential election?

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/03/of-the-more-than-1-1-million-floridians-who-have-cast-ballots-as-of-this-morning-412k/

[alomas]

Florida - C+5 or more. It's going to be called early.

Today is 3 Nov nor 20 Oct.

[The Other Castro]

Ralston answered my question! If you comment he'll answer it.

[dspNY]

Ralston thinks Cortez Masto is slightly ahead of Heck in the Senate race

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/2/1589828/-Colorado-Early-Vote-Numbers-by-Day-2-November-2

Colorado EV #'s in a graph

CO as of 11/3/16



Republicans narrowed the gap but the remaining unaffiliated voters probably skew Democrats.

Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 4 points in CO in 2012, while losing  by 5 points. Independents must skew heavily Democratic in CO.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Ralston answered my question! If you comment he'll answer it.

He "dissed" Nate's model a bit

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston answered my question! If you comment he'll answer it.

He "dissed" Nate's model a bit

Considering how obviously wrong it is about NV, I'm not surprised.

[The Other Castro]

He says he'll make a public prediction online on Sunday.

[fldemfunds]

Since everyone posts Schale's stuff. Here's an example of why his analysis is fundamentally incomplete:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[/quote]

So based strictly on this, he asserts Dems have a 29k voter advantage for the day. He literally disregards 23% of the electorate. If NPAs are going to Hillary 55-45, you add another 3-4k votes on the margin in just these three counties on just this day.

Across the state 5 million people have voted

You must be logged in to read this quote.

55-45 split of NPAs looks like this:

Dems: 2,359,322 (50.7%)
Reps: 2,294,284 (49.3%)
Total: 4,653,606

This is with 4 days left of early voting and assuming uniform ticket voting (ie both candidates get 100% of their own vote or swap the same percentage). I also think the NPA split will be closer to 60-40 to be honest. Democrats are likely going into election day with a 3-4 lead.

[dspNY]

Ralston says that Cresent Hardy (R in NV-4) and Danny Tarkanian (R in NV-3) are just about goners

[HillOfANight]

Florida - C+5 or more. It's going to be called early. Even if you assume both Trump and HRC are getting 90% of their respective votes each, NPAs break towards democratic candidates by 10-20% in FL. There are also significantly more NPAs this cycle.

If Democrats go into election day with a voter reg turnout advantage of 2-3 points, she may be approach 7-10 point territory depending on turnout on election day.

Well, the latest Upshot said they found lots of White Democrats disaffecting to Trump... So if that is true, it will be tight.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Early vote excels in Democratic counties
http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/early-vote-excels-democratic-counties/93140708/

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Early vote excels in Democratic counties
http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/early-vote-excels-democratic-counties/93140708/

Buhhhh I was told that WI would go for Trump because working white class whites!!!!

[ApatheticAustrian]

fun thing is that WI seems atm not only more secure but also more energized than MI/PA.....but i concede, that's not a fair comparison since WI has early voting.