absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[alomas]

Wisconsin has only 7% African-Americans, I consider it leaning-Clinton and she should carry it.

Detroit has issued 20% (and maybe more) absentee ballots less. It can be put down to the drop in the city population.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Buhhhh I was told that WI would go for Trump because working white class whites!!!!

Yeah. Working white class whites that are registred Democrates

This article has nothing to do with Shy Theory. Like not at all.

Uhm? I read his link before posting and I'm well aware of what it was about. Did you not consider why I responded to his post while using two different terms? If I was solely referring to the shy voter theory I'd have responded to Ebsy's post.

Sheesh LittleBig, maybe next time be a little slower to pounce would ya?

I like you and you are so mean

[Dr. Arch]

Buhhhh I was told that WI would go for Trump because working white class whites!!!!

Yeah. Working white class whites that are registred Democrates

This article has nothing to do with Shy Theory. Like not at all.

Uhm? I read his link before posting and I'm well aware of what it was about. Did you not consider why I responded to his post while using two different terms? If I was solely referring to the shy voter theory I'd have responded to Ebsy's post.

Sheesh LittleBig, maybe next time be a little slower to pounce would ya?

I like you and you are so mean

There is no party registration in Wisconsin, just so you know. Trump always has been a horrible fit for the state, and he's going nowhere here, period.

[BoAtlantis]

"FL: 21.1% of AV/EV Dems didn't vote in '12, compared to 19.1% of AV/EV GOPs. As '12 represents a strong base, that's significant for Dems."

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:
"Well the ex-boss comes to #DUUUVAL today & what happens???
Biggest single day of in-person early voting."


I hope to see some good news tomorrow.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Democrats have banked a quarter million ballot lead on Republicans in North Carolina. That’s not nearly as impressive as it might sound though. At this same point in 2012, Dems’ lead was nearly 350,000 ballots.



More than half of the unaffiliateds that have voted, voted in the March primary, and 55% voted in the GOP primary, 45% voted in the Democratic primary.

Black voters are picking up the pace, but the gap is likely too much to match their 2012 performance.



Overall, aftering being very bullish on Democrats based on Republican underperformance with mail ballots, they're now very bearish on Democrats, expecting a very tight race.

[dspNY]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

[BoAtlantis]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

I'll be super surprised if Hillary loses Florida. Democrats are doing very well.

[BoAtlantis]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

I'll be super surprised if Hillary loses Florida. Democrats are doing very well.

Me too. I hope Democrats keep returning those mail ballots. They have tons of outstanding ones.

[QE]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 18m18 minutes ago

22,000 had voted in Clark by 3 PM. That's 1,500 more than had voted by the same time on Wednesday. Could be another big Clark turnout day.

[Ozymandias]

I saw this-- it was pretty good. Ralston's a fast talker...

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
I answered 20 minutes of questions today on Facebook about those NV early voting numbers. Some great questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiKfDL_Mlho

[Speed of Sound]

I was really becoming cynical about the situation in FL, but this is fantastic news from all across the state, and not just Duuuuuuuuval. Quite comforting.

[dspNY]

Alachua (Florida Gators/Gainesville): Dems add +1200 to their margin, it's almost 2:1 now. That means the Gators on campus are voting

Leon (Florida State/Tallahassee): Dems add 1661 to their margin, approaching a 2:1 lead in party ID there as well

[Panda Express]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Obama the best

[Ozymandias]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  4m4 minutes ago
Early vote has broken the 30 million number mark nationally. Take a dive into the numbers in this week's Smartshot →

http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-30-million-americans-have-early-voted/

"But the biggest surprise to us is how many Newly Registered (registered since November 4th, 2014) have used early voting as the means to cast their first votes: a substantial 14%."

[dspNY]

A couple of big Republican counties now:

Lee County: Republicans add about +2100 to their margin
Collier County: Republicans add about +1800 to their margin

[ApatheticAustrian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/794334686206169093

[SunSt0rm]

A couple of big Republican counties now:

Lee County: Republicans add about +2100 to their margin
Collier County: Republicans add about +1800 to their margin

Where can you find these info?

[dspNY]

A couple of big Republican counties now:

Lee County: Republicans add about +2100 to their margin
Collier County: Republicans add about +1800 to their margin

Where can you find these info?

On their county elections websites. You just have to do the math and cross reference with the state elections website here

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Likely Voter]

Jon Ralston did a live chat today about NV early voting and what's wrong with NV polling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiKfDL_Mlho


Basically polling sucks because of underpolling young transient and Hispanic voters, early voting good for Clinton and Mastro

[Dr. Arch]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

[alomas]

Florida, North Carolina - dead heats, Colorado - advantage Clinton

[ApatheticAustrian]

clark kount(y) becomes superman again

Nearly 34,000 people had voted in Clark County by 6 PM. Going to be one of highest turnout days yet.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794347762418614272?lang=de

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

Florida = leaning Clinton
NC = toss up
Co = Leaning Clinton


Hopefully, Washoe county Nv has a democrat win tonight. fingers crossed!