absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

Orange just came in:

20804 early votes, about 1200 more than yesterday

Dems add 3400 to their EV margin and 600 to their VBM margin so we are +4000 there today, not including NPAs. NPAs almost outvoted Republicans there today (fell short by 500)

[HillOfANight]

Colorado looks pretty solid D.

Florida is looking better.

North Carolina I think is still in the danger zone, depending on whether you believe many whites vote for Johnson, or they fall back to Trump.

[Panda Express]

How is California looking?

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/3
                       Clinton         Trump           Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,235,000   1,003,000   52.8%   42.9% (9.9% gap)
Yet to vote           995,000   952,000         45.4%   43.5%
Total estimates   2,229,000   1,955,000   49.2%   43.2%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Jon Ralston did a live chat today about NV early voting and what's wrong with NV polling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiKfDL_Mlho


Basically polling sucks because of underpolling young transient and Hispanic voters, early voting good for Clinton and Mastro

Is there EV data over age, gender etc?

[Yank2133]

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It is over in NV.

[ApatheticAustrian]

atm i am mostly anxious about NH(??)/PA(lack of good polls)/MI (problem with motivation and many AA) [NM didn't get polled but should be fine....johnson is a wild card]

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

[Crumpets]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here in Volusia county as of today:

145,440 people have voted compared to the 232,000 in total from 2012 so 63% of the county has voted compared to 2012 results:

Among mail-in ballots Republicans have 29,076 votes to the Democrats 24,121 and Other at 13,853

and among in person ballots, Democrats have a slight lead with 30,325 votes to the Republicans 29,617 and Other at 18,448

[Yank2133]

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[heatcharger]

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Thank goodness for that. If Florida gets called for Hillary between 8 and 9, I will go to sleep and never think about Donald Trump ever again.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

[Lief 🗽]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

He sounded very optimistic. He said that he was truthfully getting worried over the weekend, but since them minority turnout has surged.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

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Thank goodness for that. If Florida gets called for Hillary between 8 and 9, I will go to sleep and never think about Donald Trump ever again.

Here in volusia county, we're quite close to that 70%, give us another day or two and we'll be past that, we get at least 5-6,000 in person votes a day, not sure about mail-in's

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

Do you in USA count EV before the polls are closed?

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

Do you in USA count EV before the polls are closed?

They are released quickly when polls close.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

Do you in USA count EV before the polls are closed?

They are released quickly when polls close.

In Sweden they start to count EV after the polls close. But in Sweden you may change your mind. Your latest vote counts. Probably that's why. My bad.

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/794334686206169093

'splain

[Crumpets]

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/794334686206169093

'splain

Higher turnout in Democratic areas pretty much always leads to a greater Democratic advantage. Greater turnout in Republican areas could go either way. Not to mention the fact that Fairfax has many more voters than any other county and can outweigh any other changes.

[HillOfANight]

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Cool! I did some math, assuming no third parties, and that with that scenario, if Clinton is

up 5 (52-47), she can win with 45% of election day.
Up 10, win with 38%.
Up 15, win with 34%.

She's up 17 in early voting per TargetSmart, 9 per InsiderAdvantage, 6 per Quinnipiac. It seems the early vote keeps getting more diverse, so I assume the lead is growing.

[Crumpets]

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Cool! I did some math, assuming no third parties, and that with that scenario, if Clinton is

up 5 (52-47), she can win with 45% of election day.
Up 10, win with 38%.
Up 15, win with 34%.

She's up 17 in early voting per TargetSmart, 9 per InsiderAdvantage, 6 per Quinnipiac. It seems the early vote keeps getting more diverse, so I assume the lead is growing.

Do you know what the election day vote was in 2012?

[HillOfANight]

Not a Florida expert, but I recall vaguely Steve Schale said they had an 80K lead in early voting by party registration, and ended up winning 80K or something. (unaffiliateds balance the GOP winning election day).

[QE]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

[Lief 🗽]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.