absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

You're in for a rough Tuesday. You completely ignore the data of votes we have and reference NV polls (which are never accurate). Give it up. NV and CO are gone.

WI won't ever be a viable state for him. At the height of everything, he's never even come close to leading in the polls, and he's WAY down in the EV, both in registration and in the polls of it.

MI is another faulty poll state. With WI being where it is, MI is going nowhere.

VA is not going for Trump, period. NoVA is now a larger share of the vote than before, and he's a horrible fit even for there.

PA is his best bet. Good luck though.

[swf541]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

I dont see PA, MI seems likelier than PA imo.

On a similar note, anyone think that in PA-09 Halvorson may unseat Shuster its getting extremely nasty on the ground?

[StatesPoll]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.

what about YouGov Elecion Model?
11/3/2016
Wisconsin: Hillary 46.9% | TRUMP 45.0% | Johnson 3.3% | Stein 2.6%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Wisconsin

[Dr. Arch]

I will add that my post above is assuming FL and NC are going to Trump by default. The trends show the opposite, especially for FL, so yeah. With no ground game, he's almost kinda done. We'll know almost for certain by Monday.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

You're in for a rough Tuesday. You completely ignore the data of votes we have and reference NV polls (which are never accurate). Give it up. NV and CO are gone.

WI won't ever be a viable state for him. At the height of everything, he's never even come close to leading in the polls, and he's WAY down in the EV, both in registration and in the polls of it.

MI is another faulty poll state. With WI being where it is, MI is going nowhere.

VA is not going for Trump, period. NoVA is now a larger share of the vote than before, and he's a horrible fit even for there.

PA is his best bet. Good luck though.

I respectively disagree fully with NV and CO being over already. NV Trump could still take IMO for sure CO will be much tougher.

[BoAtlantis]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
We gave our September poll of Florida to four pollsters, and got four different results. Here's how the early vote stacks up so far



Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  19m19 minutes ago Washington, DC
The Florida early vote has steadily been getting more diverse, too. I expect that will continue

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  18m18 minutes ago Washington, DC
My guess is that @PatrickRuffini will have the most 'accurate' electorate of the 4 pollsters that used our sample. We'll see

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  18m18 minutes ago Washington, DC
As is the case with our NC estimates, the main takeaway is that the turnout is largely going as expected

[Speed of Sound]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

[PresidentTRUMP]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.

what about YouGov Elecion Model?
11/3/2016
Wisconsin: Hillary 46.9% | TRUMP 45.0% | Johnson 3.3% | Stein 2.6%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Wisconsin

I think Michigan is the state Trump has the best chance of stealing from the D's over WI, Minn and PA.

Let's not forget the "polls" all had clinton beating sanders in the primary by 20+ points some even had 30+....she lost by a point. Michigan is def in play.

[swf541]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.

what about YouGov Elecion Model?
11/3/2016
Wisconsin: Hillary 46.9% | TRUMP 45.0% | Johnson 3.3% | Stein 2.6%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Wisconsin

I think Michigan is the state Trump has the best chance of stealing from the D's over WI, Minn and PA.

Let's not forget the "polls" all had clinton beating sanders in the primary by 20+ points some even had 30+....she lost by a point. Michigan is def in play.

Wouldnt call it in play, but can see it being a completely random or bizarre result

[Dr. Arch]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

Awesome! Even before the day began there was a 4,000 vote swing. That already puts Ds leading before today's wave.

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems are going to lead....maybe...by 40-50k votes before the election....

any news if those lazy requesters have finally sent in their ballots?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Nia-Malika Henderson is reporting that NC Democrats are very concerned by the drop in African-America turnout

[PresidentTRUMP]

I actually take back what i said about Michigan being more attainable for Trump than PA. I think he has about even odds at both, whatever those odds may be.

The latest poll taken with the LARGEST sample size by far of 2,606 people had Clinton +1 and this is a state WITHOUT early voting.

Gravis   10/31 - 10/31   2606 RV   1.9   47   46   3   Clinton +1

FL, OH, NC & PA are all winnable for Trump and if he does he gets to 273 and wins.

[Speed of Sound]

'Ere comes Clark!

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[Yank2133]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

You're in for a rough Tuesday. You completely ignore the data of votes we have and reference NV polls (which are never accurate). Give it up. NV and CO are gone.

WI won't ever be a viable state for him. At the height of everything, he's never even come close to leading in the polls, and he's WAY down in the EV, both in registration and in the polls of it.

MI is another faulty poll state. With WI being where it is, MI is going nowhere.

VA is not going for Trump, period. NoVA is now a larger share of the vote than before, and he's a horrible fit even for there.

PA is his best bet. Good luck though.

I respectively disagree fully with NV and CO being over already. NV Trump could still take IMO for sure CO will be much tougher.

NV is gone.

Dems lead in Clark County is just going to be too much for him to overcome.

[ApatheticAustrian]

YOUNG HISPANICS VOTING DAY!

[ApatheticAustrian]

ofc there could be a some reg break in NV but....

there is nearly not trump GOTV and a super-effort of LATINO unions....any questions?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Is there any recent polling data or EV data out of New Mexico? I haven't seen a poll from there for 3 weeks atleast.

[Xing]

If people think that NV isn't gone for Trump, but that IA is gone for Hillary, they're clearly choosing to ignore what the EV so far is implying.

[Speed of Sound]

Is there any recent polling data or EV data out of New Mexico? I haven't seen a poll from there for 3 weeks atleast.

Keep an eye out in the Atlas Google Consumer Surveys thread. Cinyc is running an NM poll as we speak!

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is there any recent polling data or EV data out of New Mexico? I haven't seen a poll from there for 3 weeks atleast.

no there are not, any the last polls have been confused by johnson-mentum.

[BoAtlantis]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

[PresidentTRUMP]

Is there any recent polling data or EV data out of New Mexico? I haven't seen a poll from there for 3 weeks atleast.

no there are not, any the last polls have been confused by johnson-mentum.

I would love to see a poll out from the state before election day to see where it stands. Do you know if any of the polling companies plan to do a poll there before Tuesday?

[ApatheticAustrian]

@2016...sorry, don't know, asked the same for days.


Hispanic EIP voting in Florida is off the charts...429k have voted in person, up 152% at this time in 2012
https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/794560117391753216