absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Yank2133]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

It is not good.

He has to outperform Mitt when it comes to white voters, if he doesn't he is toast.

[Classic Conservative]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

No, he has always been consistent.

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Poll? Or early voting so far?

Early voting

[psychprofessor]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

No, he has always been consistent.

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Poll? Or early voting so far?

Early voting

That would make the target smart +8 seem reasonable...if Trump is underperforming to that extent with early voting whites, who will make up 70% of the electorate by election day (early voters), it won't even be close at poll closing time.

[Lief 🗽]

Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

omfg Ralston is so schizophrenic. I need to just start paying attention to his final update of the day. Everything else just swings wildly back and forth by the hour!

[dspNY]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

[Speed of Sound]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

[Speed of Sound]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

It is not good.

He has to outperform Mitt when it comes to white voters, if he doesn't he is toast.

That just can't be right.....it would be a complete blood bath in FL if those numbers hold. No way.....right?

[BoAtlantis]

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

Lol, Trumpkins still think he has a chance in NV based on a crappy CNN poll?

Dog sweat.....can smell all the way from VA.

To be fair, he is partially correct.

HuffPo NV average shows it's 43.9 to 42.4 right now.
In 2012, it was 50.1 to 46.5 and O carried it by 6-7% IIRC.

Higher % of Indy breaking for Trump will make it closer this year but I think she has built up too big of a lead. She'll carry it by 2-3% at least.

[mark_twain]

The early vote totals seem to suggest that Clinton will win NV, FL, and NC rather easily, looking at the current situation.

Am I missing something?

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, there is a huge difference between people who REGISTER as independents and people who IDENTIFY to pollsters as independents.  In most of these states, Democrats win the former, but Republicans win the latter. Nate Cohn has tweeted about this quite a bit.

[swf541]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

[ApatheticAustrian]

if FL is locked..... we can "survive" NC/MI defections and maybe even PA.

would laugh endless, if trump sweeps the midwest and loses all in the sunbelt.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

if FL is locked..... we can "survive" NC/MI defections and maybe even PA.

would laugh endless, if trump sweeps the midwest and loses all in the sunbelt.

MI isn't happening and PA isn't either.

[Speed of Sound]

Guys, there is a huge difference between people who REGISTER as independents and people who IDENTIFY to pollsters as independents.  In most of these states, Democrats win the former, but Republicans win the latter. Nate Cohn has tweeted about this quite a bit.

Yeah, I'm kind of surprised it took this long for someone to mention this. Frankly, right now the overlap between ID independents and actual UFAs may be like 30% or less.

[Speed of Sound]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

If (Iiiffffff) UFAs are doing what we think they are, Orange could be a real killing with those numbers.

[swf541]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

If (Iiiffffff) UFAs are doing what we think they are, Orange could be a real killing with those numbers.

Had similar thoughts, tuesday is going to be really interesting in the county maps.

[Classic Conservative]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

[Dr. Arch]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Huh, so he needs to outperform Romney then not just match his performance....

[Lief 🗽]

Wouldn't the white vote be more Republican in early voting than day of voting? Since older people are more likely to vote before election day than younger people?

[Speed of Sound]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

[dspNY]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

With 5.25 million votes cast out of approximately 9 million (or 58.3% of the total vote) already in the can, Trump leads by 17 among 68% of that. Assuming 3% go to third parties, Trump leads Clinton 57-40-3 among this group. That means his lead in raw votes among white voters is about 607K. There are approximately 3.75 million Floridians left to vote. We'll be charitable and keep the percentage of white voters left in the pool at 68%. For Trump to hit Romney's 61% with white voters, he has to win about 2/3 of the remaining white vote. And this projection also assumes that Latino and African-American percentages do not rise or trend toward Clinton. If they do, Trump needs even more. The white vote on E-Day would have to be something like 65-32-3 for him

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Yes, that was my initial point