absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Mr. Morden]

Sorry guys, was hoping I wouldn't have to break it up, but the other thread is growing so fast and we still have a week left, and Dave doesn't want threads to get too long.  This thread is a continuation of the old one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245323.0

[bilaps]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

[Classic Conservative]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

It's more like R+ 17,456

[bilaps]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

It's more like R+ 17,456

It's total advantage. I was talking about last update, last day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

any links?

[Classic Conservative]

any links?

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Early Vote in North Carolina Seems Consistent With a Clinton Lead, Nate Cohn - Upshot

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

Registration Shifts Drive Apparent Turnout Shifts

"The turnout among registered Democrats is down. The turnout among registered Republicans is up." Well, there’s a pretty straightforward reason for that: The number of registered Democrats in North Carolina has declined since 2012. The number of registered Republicans has ticked up.

Over all, the number of registered Democrats has declined by 5.1 percent. The number of early voters who were registered Democrats has dipped by 3.1 percent — so the Democratic turnout hasn’t dropped as much as the number of registered Democrats.

Republican turnout has increased by more than the increase in Republican registration, but mainly because reliable Republican voters are turning out in greater numbers. As a result, we expected the Democratic registration edge to decline from 11 to 8 percentage points heading into the early vote."

Unaffiliated

"The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state."

"In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters."

[The Other Castro]

At least 29,202,565 votes have been cast as of this morning. Over 63% of the total 2012 early vote.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

Registration Shifts Drive Apparent Turnout Shifts

"The turnout among registered Democrats is down. The turnout among registered Republicans is up." Well, there’s a pretty straightforward reason for that: The number of registered Democrats in North Carolina has declined since 2012. The number of registered Republicans has ticked up.

Over all, the number of registered Democrats has declined by 5.1 percent. The number of early voters who were registered Democrats has dipped by 3.1 percent — so the Democratic turnout hasn’t dropped as much as the number of registered Democrats.

Republican turnout has increased by more than the increase in Republican registration, but mainly because reliable Republican voters are turning out in greater numbers. As a result, we expected the Democratic registration edge to decline from 11 to 8 percentage points heading into the early vote."

Unaffiliated

"The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state."

"In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters."

Much more reassuring, compared to the numbers at face value. Still, election day is less than a week away

[Mehmentum]

My take away.  The drop in Democrats is due to dixiecrats finally changing their registration, it isn't actually bad new.  The unaffiliated demographics sound a lot like berniecrats.

[ApatheticAustrian]

white males are....even. white women are way up in NC...wonder why?

[fldemfunds]

From previous thread:

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THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS. I am glad Schale is finally catching on. This isn't 2012. Dems don't need to have a 6 point lead to win by 1 anymore. Turnout by voter registration is now a lot closer to the actual vote totals than previously because of the sorting effect. Including NPAs and HRC has a significant lead in actual votes cast.

[Phony Moderate]

At least 29,202,565 votes have been cast as of this morning. Over 63% of the total 2012 early vote.

Anyone know what percentage of the 2008 early vote had been cast at this point in 2012?

[Virginiá]

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This makes more sense to me. I always assumed that black turnout could drop 2%~ or so, but reverting to pre-Obama levels is, to me, absurd in just 1 election cycle. The only way that would seem plausible to me is if during early voting, most other demographics were showing large drops as well, which isn't the case so far.

But I guess such a huge drop could happen in such short order, in which case I'll happily eat my shoe.

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Wouldn't it, at least in part, have something to do with the lower Millennial turnout? It's been widely reported that Hispanic and African American Millennials are not at all enthused/happy with Clinton. As I recall, African American Millennial turnout was in the mid-50s range in 2008 and low-50s in 2012, tracking overall Millennial turnout. The only way to stabilize AA turnout this year with a drop in Millennials is for even more older AAs to come out in vote, which just isn't happening.

However, I don't think this is purely an Obama thing. I think if Democrats had chosen a candidate that Millennials loved (Bernie or Warren), their turnout could have stabilized and we probably would see a smaller, or even no drop in turnout among Millennials.

But, in the end, there is, unfortunately, precedent for both white and black youth turnout rates to plummet nearly 10% in just 4 years:



We'll just have to survey the damage once this is all over.


@NOVA Green: thanks for your take!

[ApatheticAustrian]

btw....AAs are voting at normal levels, not low ones.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

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https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793833846902894596

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.

[Speed of Sound]

I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.

btw....AAs are voting at normal levels, not low ones.

[Confused Democrat]

I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.

White women will be higher too no?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

IDK, probably they are, but it is certainly not what this picture tells us.

[Confused Democrat]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

IDK, probably they are, but it is certainly not what this picture tells us.

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

Lets turn it around. Whites is up by 5% points, while Others is down by the same amount.
Of course, it might be a realignment among Whites (more educated or more female etc), but generally the more Whites => the better Trump's doing.

[Confused Democrat]

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

Lets turn it around. Whites is up by 5% points, while Others is down by the same amount.
Of course, it might be a realignment among Whites (more educated or more female etc), but generally the more Whites => the better Trump's doing.

If we stick with this logic, 53% of voters in FL are still breaking heavily for Clinton. That's not including her share of the white vote.