absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[QE]

(Apologies if this has already been posted)

Florida in-person EV stats by county:

http://brianamos.com/maps/flearlyvote.html

You can isolate individual dates or look at cumulative trends. 

[ApatheticAustrian]

dem crush it in clark by nearly 5k today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sorceror43/status/794039503916822529

[Minnesota Mike]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

[QE]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

[psychprofessor]

dem crush it in clark by nearly 5k today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sorceror43/status/794039503916822529

even ralston is impressed :-)

[Dr. Arch]

(Apologies if this has already been posted)

Florida in-person EV stats by county:

http://brianamos.com/maps/flearlyvote.html

You can isolate individual dates or look at cumulative trends. 

Very nice. You can see Ds picking up momentum in that last couple of days.

[Speed of Sound]

And we already knew this, but Nate Cohn is impressed with early indications in NC. In the immortal words of Ice Cube, today was a goooooood day.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794042342646943744

[dspNY]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

Nevada quickly moving out of play

[psychprofessor]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

Nevada quickly moving out of play

CNN said Clark goes to Trump, though. What to believe, real votes tallied or a CNN poll with N/A listed for Hispanics in the cross-tabs?

[Antonio the Sixth]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

[ApatheticAustrian]

@jante....this question becomes annoying annnd.....1000 more or so this time.

[Speed of Sound]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794041861258166272

[Ebsy]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

[Dr. Arch]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

[JimSharp]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?
[/quote]

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

[/quote]

Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:

Metro PDX----

Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County)  is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)



Mid-Valley---

Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only  +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.

Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).

Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.

Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.

Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.

Coastal Oregon:

Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....

Southern Oregon

Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.

Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.

Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....

Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.

Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D.  Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...

Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...

What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....

Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.

[BoAtlantis]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

[Speed of Sound]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

[/quote]

Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.
[/quote]

You're right to point that out. The fact that Trump's rally yielded basically no change at all, however, does give some sense of GOTV differences (differences which are likely to keep playing out this week).

[psychprofessor]

Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:

Metro PDX----

Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County)  is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)



Mid-Valley---

Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only  +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.

Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).

Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.

Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.

Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.

Coastal Oregon:

Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....

Southern Oregon

Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.

Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.

Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....

Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.

Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D.  Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...

Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...

What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....

Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.

I really like reading these...thanks for posting

[Antonio the Sixth]

@jante....this question becomes annoying annnd.....1000 more or so this time.

It's the only question that matters, though. Everything is relative.

And these figures are EXCELLENT. I'm starting to feel good about CCM (knocking on wood, though!).

[Dr. Arch]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

Looking good! The fact that there has been a huge spike of unaffiliateds, and they are majority women is a really good sign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

[ApatheticAustrian]

we come close to the last..hehe..trump card:

polls wrong/massive national trumpocrats

the fundamentals are leaning clinton.

[Speed of Sound]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

Oh, good to know. I'm holding out hope!