absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Speed of Sound]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

Oh, good to know. I'm holding out hope!

Given the Guilford #s and Nate Cohn's hint that the early #s he saw from today were very good, we should definitely see something noticeable. But, of course, good to wait for the charts.

[BoAtlantis]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

Looking good! The fact that there has been a huge spike of unaffiliateds, and they are majority women is a really good sign.

Yup, Per Nate Cohn

"The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state."

[NOVA Green]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

Is Mook gay?

First openly gay major campaign manager

Awesome!!!

Didn't know that, and his private life is his own business, but always happy to see people come out, without fear of retribution in their professional careers as well.

[JimSharp]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.
[/quote]

You're right to point that out. The fact that Trump's rally yielded basically no change at all, however, does give some sense of GOTV differences (differences which are likely to keep playing out this week).
[/quote]

Well, one of the storylines has been that he has no ground game and she has BHO's + money. Maybe sometimes things just are what they actually are?

It is kind of interesting how the polls are nudging strongly in a DJT direction, but the "facts on the ground" seem to be suggesting at least a "normal/slight" HRC/Dem win.

Even at Silver's site, the chances of a Dem congress has inverted with the chances of an HRC win, for the first time I remember all campaign. Is it really possible/plausible that suddenly HRC is less popular/likely to win than swing state/tight race senate candidates? AND that Nevada plays out like 2012, (and perhaps NC - and certainly FLA is looks at tight as ever?) but the rest of the country is way off?

That kid of analysis is beyond my pay grade, but it will be interesting to see.

[ApatheticAustrian]

is there someone to follow for CO EV or is the ballot-only thingie so centralized that we only get 1 number each day?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

[Speed of Sound]

is there someone to follow for CO EV or is the ballot-only thingie so centralized that we only get 1 number each day?

Michael McDonald and Nick Riccardi seem to each talk a good bit about CO. I know very little about when/how often during the day they have access to new numbers, though.

[Confused Democrat]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

[Speed of Sound]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

By 2%, in fact.

[Dr. Arch]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

By 2%, in fact.

Yep. She's over-performing in CO.

[ApatheticAustrian]

colorado unaff are dem-leaning.

high education-state.

[Tender Branson]

NV is now D+5 (was D+7 in 2012).

More than 620.000 early votes so far and still 2 more days left with about 50K votes each.

[NOVA Green]

colorado unaff are dem-leaning.

high education-state.

Pretty much this.... more like Indies in the Portland Oregon Metro area, and parts of the Mid-Valley.

Colorado, is rapidly becoming more like many other Western states, where Moderate Republicans>Indies>Vote Dem for many GE candidates....

We saw this train back in the late '80s/'90s in the Pacific Northwest, as well as New Mexico and California for different reasons....

[QE]

There is some cause for concern in Michigan:

There has been a drop-off in AV's versus 2012 according to the Detroit City Clerk's office. They are estimating approx. 70K AV's returned by election day for 2016. For reference, about 80K were returned in 2012. Now, granted, some of that may be population loss, but this may be part of the reason for Bill Clinton's impromptu stop in Detroit today (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/02/sources-bill-clinton-makes-surprise-detroit-visit/93204146/).

So far, about 53K absentee ballots have been issued with almost 37K returned as of November 1st.

Zach Gorchow ‏@ZachGorchow 3h3 hours ago
Will blog on this tomorrow, but Michigan Dems have reasons for serious concern with falloff in absentee ballots returned in Detroit. #2016

I would be interested to see if there has been corresponding drop offs in Flint, Lansing and other population centers.

https://twitter.com/ZachGorchow?lang=en

[IceSpear]

Let's agree to never take Nevada polls seriously again.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

NV now already has more early votes than total votes cast in the 2000 election.

[Badger]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

We've discussed this before you cowardly poltrron.

$500 here and now Trump loses at 2-1 odds for you. Money up or shut up.

You have repeatedly slunk away from my challenge, now I demand satisfaction.

I'm serious as a stroke here. Let's arrange an on-line transaction and put your daddy's money on the line if you're so confident.

Either that, or tuck tail and crawl away.

Your move, Brittney.

[Badger]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

The media has categorized Trump supporters as racists, bigots, hate woman ect. college educated white voters know this, we read and watch the news and that's why that particular group will never admit to anyone they are backing Trump because they want change because they know the media has said you are a racist if you support him.

OK, enough from you. On the ignore list you go. I read your daily dose of "polls are closing!!polls can't be trusted!!" from quoted lines.

The silver lining here is your name indicates you'll be gone by mid-November.

[Badger]

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

$500 bucks, 3-1 odds for you, Trump loses VA. Here and now.

Put up or shut up.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we're on track for a 59% white electorate in GA this year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2016 (2012)

White: 56.7 (59.1)
Black: 30.1 (30.0)
Other: 10.1 (7.7)
Latino: 2.7 (1.7)
Asian: 1.8 (1.4)
Native American: 0.1 (0.1)

Related: Minority voter registration surges in Georgia

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who are the others?

[SunSt0rm]

democrats have closed the gap a bit in Florida, from 17k yesterday to 12k today

[Adam Griffin]

Who are the others?

As I understand it, SoS no longer requires that one specify race on the registration form. However, the form itself has not changed, meaning those options are still on there. I've never been able to find a clear answer as to why, but over the past decade, the number of "Others" has increased substantially, fueled by new registrations. It's not as if the average person registering to vote for the first time knows this nerdy stuff and decides not to specify their race.

There is a tendency in counties with larger Latino populations to have a higher than average share of "Others", but it's not a perfect correlation. It's very difficult for me to believe that a mere 2% of all registrations are Latino in a state where they are 10% of the population. Since Latinos are disproportionately likely to have just registered to vote within the past decade, they're very likely to be under-represented in the formal number due to this phenomenon. I live in the most Latino county in the state, where the Latino population is quite disengaged politically, lower-income, uneducated, heavily undocumented, etc, and the share of registrants who are Latino is around one-third their share of the population (10% of RVs versus 32% of pop); according to this, that same measurement would be one-fifth statewide. Doesn't add up to me. Especially since a large share of Latinos in GA live in counties where they are more likely to be picked up by registration efforts.

Certainly, a good chunk of those people are in reality white, but I'd be willing to say that overall, the "Others" are racially comparable to the makeup of recently registered voters. If that's the case, then I'd say it's probably something like 45% White, 35% Black, 15% Latino and 5% Asian/Other. That'd make the actual electorate 61% White, 34% Black, 5% Latino/Other. It could be less white than that, though: I've seen conflicting data as to the makeup of the Others, so I can't really say for sure. At any rate, tracking with 2012, 2008 and so forth, the white share of the electorate is still dropping at a predictable rate.

[alomas]

Florida has updated his totals. Nearly 5 million people have cast their votes are R are still ahead

[HillOfANight]

Looks like we're on track for a 59% white electorate in GA this year.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2016 (2012)

White: 56.7 (59.1)
Black: 30.1 (30.0)
Other: 10.1 (7.7)
Latino: 2.7 (1.7)
Asian: 1.8 (1.4)
Native American: 0.1 (0.1)

Related: Minority voter registration surges in Georgia

Great registration numbers, but the early voting is almost over and it doesn't look great.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
2016 early vote (2014 early vote since I couldn't find 2012)

White 60.8% (58.1%)
Black 27.7% (30.8%)
Hispanic 1.3% (0.5%)
Other 2% (1%)
Unknown 8.1% (9.6%)