absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BundouYMB]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

[Dr. Arch]

Do we have any demographic info from CO available?

[Speed of Sound]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

The people who "know" CO have guessed that Trump needs to hit R+7 to be competitive.

[Adam Griffin]

Michael McDonald has mentioned his voter file is stale, maybe as of September so that could contribute to it, and I think third party vendors have better data on the unknowns (based on modeling).

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/
CNN has the Black vote at 31% as of 10/31, I think about 3% higher than Michael's reporting, but that's still trailing previous years.

He had been reporting 28.x% Black, yet it dipped to 27.7% today.

At least in Florida and North Carolina, the Black % is creeping up, but no sign of that in Georgia.

CNN is using Catalist. That is literally the gold standard. They have so much information on every single voter in the country that it's crazy: from your vitals down to what links you click on social media. No offense to Michael, as he does a great job every cycle with collecting this, but if it's Catalist versus a "stale" voter file, then I'd definitely go with Catalist.

Another thing to consider (based on higher overall turnout) is that more white people are simply using early voting this year, which could have an impact on the percentages. That'll leave fewer whites to vote on Election Day, which could result in the racial gap between early vote and Election Day vote being a lot smaller than in previous cycles. If there is no gap, then the electorate would be blacker than it was four years ago (not saying that's going to happen).

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ I haven't looked at the precise numbers yet, but based off of CNN's percentages/early vote totals for GA in 2012/2016, you'd come away with these approximate numbers of black early voters in each election:

2012: 405,000
2016: 465,000

So even though it's a smaller percentage, it'd be an overall larger number of black voters using early voting. It seems that it is just that many (likely older) white people are now using early voting instead. Again, could be totally wrong about the broader implication, but we'll see.

[OneJ]

^^^ I haven't looked at the precise numbers yet, but based off of CNN's percentages/early vote totals for GA in 2012/2016, you'd come away with these approximate numbers of black early voters in each election:

2012: 405,000
2016: 465,000

So even though it's a smaller percentage, it'd be an overall larger number of black voters using early voting. It seems that it is just that many (likely older) white people are now using early voting instead. Again, could be totally wrong about the broader implication, but we'll see.

Great!

[bilaps]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

The people who "know" CO have guessed that Trump needs to hit R+7 to be competitive.

As I said it before I don't buy that. This election is like no other and people are wrong when thinking everything will be like before. What i'm trying to say is IF Trump wins CO and some other battlegrounds than he will have a big lead among U's, indies or whatever you call them and in midwest among democrats.

Having said that, NV looks safe D. What was 2012 D over R percentage in EV? I always forget that number. There was some tightening in week 2 in NV but after yesterday Dems are again plus 6,2% if i added correctly.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

Ohio

- Republicans think they're behind 70K behind in early voting, half the gap vs 2012
- Republicans claim they're getting more low propensity voters vs Democrats
- In Democratic Cuyahoga County, Democrats are down 25% vs 2012, and Republicans up 13%
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

[HillOfANight]

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/

GOP up in Arizona, but less than in 2012. More Hispanic voters. Slightly younger.

[Speed of Sound]

We've broken the 33 million EV mark.

[eric82oslo]

Young latino women are turning out in massive numbers in Arizona. It's really astonishing that the latino percentage among the early voters in Arizona has doubled from 6% to 12% in only 4 years! 12% is still a low number of course, so more work will have to be done in order to register, engage an organize the latino population there in the next 4-8 years. Battleground Arizona anyone?

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
NC #earlyvote gender comparision to 2012:
Woman 1,298,386 voted; +143,020 (+12.4%) vs. 2012
Men 995,645 voted; +96,499 (+10.7%)

[dspNY]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

Ohio

- Republicans think they're behind 70K behind in early voting, half the gap vs 2012
- Republicans claim they're getting more low propensity voters vs Democrats
- In Democratic Cuyahoga County, Democrats are down 25% vs 2012, and Republicans up 13%
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

[MasterJedi]

Young latino women are turning out in massive numbers in Arizona. It's really astonishing that the latino percentage among the early voters in Arizona has doubled from 6% to 12% in only 4 years! 12% is still a low number of course, so more work will have to be done in order to register, engage an organize the latino population there in the next 4-8 years. Battleground Arizona anyone?

If minorities were ever to vote in the same number as whites then Republicans would never be elected again until some type of policy shift/some other type of shift happens.

[The Other Castro]

In response to the CO GOP surge:

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  16m16 minutes ago
Colorado #earlyvote update. Reps finally make a move with 9,006 more returns y'day. Dem lead now +1.0, was +1.9 y'day

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  12m12 minutes ago
If 2014 is a guide (first election under new law)
- Reps need about +7 points to be competitive
- Dems going to pick up this weekend

[Brittain33]

- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

But there are how many Democrats in Butler County? 11?

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
Important for understanding voter reg trends: Clinton has a 42-21 lead among new unaffiliated voters in PA/FL/NC: https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
The number of young voters in NC early voting is surging (normal near end of early vote). Yesterday was youngest week-day yet: avg age of 50

[bilaps]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
Important for understanding voter reg trends: Clinton has a 42-21 lead among new unaffiliated voters in PA/FL/NC: https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL

That was according to his polls.

[Dr. Arch]

Great news from FL! Hundreds of historically black college or university (HBCU) students took to the polls in Durham and Daytona Beach on Wednesday to kick off early voting on their respective campus.

Link: https://hbcubuzz.com/2016/11/hundreds-hbcu-students-march-polls-early-voting/

[ApatheticAustrian]

bless john lewis' soul.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

Ohio

- Republicans think they're behind 70K behind in early voting, half the gap vs 2012
- Republicans claim they're getting more low propensity voters vs Democrats
- In Democratic Cuyahoga County, Democrats are down 25% vs 2012, and Republicans up 13%
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/792389294405087236

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

Not according to Tom Bonier, unless Republicans have taken the lead on low-propensity voters recently.

[Ozymandias]

Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  8m8 minutes ago Denver, CO
One thing I've been watching carefully in CO early vote: Age. Young CO voters cast ballots late. A lot still to come #copolitics



Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  9m9 minutes ago Denver, CO
This is from the invaluable @MagellanStrat breakdown of Colorado early votes

[OneJ]

Great news from FL! Hundreds of historically black college or university (HBCU) students took to the polls in Durham and Daytona Beach on Wednesday to kick off early voting on their respective campus.

Link: https://hbcubuzz.com/2016/11/hundreds-hbcu-students-march-polls-early-voting/

Big League turnout from my people! And with Murphy too!

[Speed of Sound]

Great news from FL! Hundreds of historically black college or university (HBCU) students took to the polls in Durham and Daytona Beach on Wednesday to kick off early voting on their respective campus.

Link: https://hbcubuzz.com/2016/11/hundreds-hbcu-students-march-polls-early-voting/

An inspiring image. Best of luck to all black organizations today and through the election!

[Classic Conservative]

Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  8m8 minutes ago Denver, CO
One thing I've been watching carefully in CO early vote: Age. Young CO voters cast ballots late. A lot still to come #copolitics



Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  9m9 minutes ago Denver, CO
This is from the invaluable @MagellanStrat breakdown of Colorado early votes

Who knows, if they will vote though. My cousin goes UC Boulder for graduate school and she was a Bernie fan but her and her boyfriend aren't voting this year, because Bernie isn't on the ballot.