absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 110423 times)
Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #525 on: November 04, 2016, 01:13:05 AM »

The states I am worried about are Pa and NH. I don't like the way the polls are looking...Is this justified?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #526 on: November 04, 2016, 01:14:37 AM »

The states I am worried about are Pa and NH. I don't like the way the polls are looking...Is this justified?

You shouldn't be worrying about PA. NH is more so-so, but I'm pretty confident HRC will carry it honestly.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #527 on: November 04, 2016, 01:15:17 AM »

Purple heart Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #528 on: November 04, 2016, 01:17:33 AM »

Purple heart Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.

The unaffiliated vote in NC is WAY up, which is heavy young, urban, and comprised of more women than men. That can only be a good sign.

As for the AA votes, they were posted on this thread earlier, I believe. They will be updated soon though.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #529 on: November 04, 2016, 01:27:06 AM »

Purple heart Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.

The unaffiliated vote in NC is WAY up, which is heavy young, urban, and comprised of more women than men. That can only be a good sign.

As for the AA votes, they were posted on this thread earlier, I believe. They will be updated soon though.

Unaffiliated is up more than D's and R's comparable to 2012 in NC, and this is what Nate Cohn is finding:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  7h7 hours ago Washington, DC
@tylermacro10 @BowTiePolitics  in our data, clinton has a meaningful chunk of unaffiliated republican primary voters who have voted early
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #530 on: November 04, 2016, 02:29:36 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 02:45:39 AM by Interlocutor »


About as bad for the GOP as the primary, but with more Latinos and a smaller share of the electorate

It might get ugly downballot
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #531 on: November 04, 2016, 06:43:57 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #532 on: November 04, 2016, 06:45:08 AM »

Is today the final day of early voting nationwide or does it keeps going in some places?
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #533 on: November 04, 2016, 06:46:33 AM »

Is today the final day of early voting nationwide or does it keeps going in some places?

Today is the last day for Nevada, if I am correct, tomorrow is the last day in NC en sunday the last day in Florida
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #534 on: November 04, 2016, 07:08:40 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 07:22:35 AM by Chaddyr23 »

Saturday is the last day in Florida. Republicans wanted to ensure no more souls to the polls the Sunday before election. Correction, some counties allow it on Sunday. I stand corrected
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alomas
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« Reply #535 on: November 04, 2016, 07:27:50 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #536 on: November 04, 2016, 07:28:47 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #537 on: November 04, 2016, 07:30:56 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

Assessments are suggesting that Clinton is significantly over-performing that breakdown thanks to unaligned voters breaking for HRC
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #538 on: November 04, 2016, 07:40:20 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

Assessments are suggesting that Clinton is significantly over-performing that breakdown thanks to unaligned voters breaking for HRC
And, since it apparently needs to be said again.  Many dixiecrats have finally switched parties in the past 4 years, making a direct comparison inaccurate.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #539 on: November 04, 2016, 07:52:40 AM »

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who directed Obama's first successful Florida campaign in 2008, said the intensity of early voting, diversity of Florida's electorate, the fact that women are outvoting men by 55 percent to 45 percent and the Hispanic turnout in the I-4 corridor are all markers that point to a Clinton victory in Florida. In Jacksonville on Thursday, Schale had a private meeting with the president and told him Clinton will carry Florida, just as he correctly predicted an Obama win eight years ago.
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bilaps
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« Reply #540 on: November 04, 2016, 07:57:06 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #541 on: November 04, 2016, 08:02:30 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #542 on: November 04, 2016, 08:14:11 AM »

Is today the final day of early voting nationwide or does it keeps going in some places?

Today's the last day for Georgia.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #543 on: November 04, 2016, 08:23:44 AM »

The new Freiwal.

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bilaps
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« Reply #544 on: November 04, 2016, 08:24:50 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #545 on: November 04, 2016, 08:28:55 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

Considering your scrambling, kinda seems like it's not his landing that will come hard.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #546 on: November 04, 2016, 08:30:07 AM »

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794292452475727873

Steve Schale has hard #s, and it only accounts for early votes so far.

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #547 on: November 04, 2016, 08:37:59 AM »


My favorite part about this freiwal? It's 293 EVs. She wouldn't need PA.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #548 on: November 04, 2016, 08:38:31 AM »

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #549 on: November 04, 2016, 08:39:52 AM »

Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday
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