absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[psychprofessor]

https://twitter.com/adamsmithtimes/status/794599190009614340
Clinton's campaign manager think they're ahead by 170K in Florida. Obama's team thought they were behind in 2012.

I did the math, with 5.3M votes in, give 2% to third parties, leaves 5.194M for Trump/Clinton. On Mook's math, they're up 4% in early voting, 2.7M/52% to 2.5M/48%. THe lead should grow with voting in the weekend.

These Broward numbers are gonna be off the charts today...wowzers

[alomas]

Don't forget that Republican counties are also experiencing big gains. Not only Miami-Dade, Volusia, Broward and Palm Beach.

[Speed of Sound]

[Wiz in Wis]

WOW...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't forget that Republican counties are also experiencing big gains. Not only Miami-Dade, Volusia, Broward and Palm Beach.

Yes, but the big D counties in Florida have more people than the big R counties.  So if they all have large gains, it favors the Democats.  Top 10 counties by population:

1   Miami-Dade County   2,617,176
2   Broward County   1,838,844
3   Palm Beach County   1,372,171
4   Hillsborough County   1,291,578
5   Orange County   1,225,267
6   Pinellas County   929,048
7   Duval County   885,855
8   Lee County   661,115
9   Polk County   623,009
10   Brevard County   550,823

Source: http://countrydigest.org/florida-counties-by-population/

[ApatheticAustrian]

SUPER NOVA!

[alomas]

Yes, but the big D counties in Florida have more people than the big R counties.  So if they all have large gains, it favors the Democats.

I agree but if Republicans are running better in early voting than in 2012 and the total number of cast ballots is better then they must do better job in their counties as well. They may be smaller but there are more such counties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia breaks early voting record.  Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/GACFC/698b993e6d834f96a07f707c693a7e73/Article_2016-11-04-GA--Early%20Voting%20Record/id-0ac1a76cc1a14cb4811bbd4ca6524131

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

Eh... It does not sound plausible at all. Or? I though that she was underperforming among them nationally. If so (not 100% sure), I doubt she'll do better in NV.

White male millennials were 54-41 Romney and females 49-48 according to exit polls, but millennials are only 55% white and will I think drop below 50% by 2020.

Wow, thanks!

And didn't know that just 55% millennials are white

[dspNY]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

Woohoo!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

WOW...

Is it a good news for Hillary? Explain for us who don't know much about VA 

Steve Schale

Keep getting asked about NPA versus FL electorate as a whole.
Its more diverse:
All voters:  68w - 12.2b - 14.4h
NPA: 64.2w - 6.3b - 19.9h

How does it compared to 2012?

[Speed of Sound]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

Woohoo!

Oh wow! I missed that the Dems had taken the lead before Friday even began. Can't wait to see what the next two days produce there.

[ApatheticAustrian]

northern virginia = DC-subs and well-paid educated voters.....becoming more and more each year...

if NOVA turnout is high = game over in VA.

[Ebsy]

Keating has Clinton +4 among EV in Colorado with an even party registration in their poll.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

[BoAtlantis]

Keating has Clinton +4 among EV in Colorado with an even party registration in their poll.

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

[ApatheticAustrian]

we don't know shoot about NC/FL cause both states are in a "change" periods with dixiecrats changing parties....

maybe REPS are doing great...maybe they are cannibalizing themselves to death.

[Ozymandias]

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

18-24: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (18%), NOT YET VOTED (34%)
35-49: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (20%), NOT YET VOTED (29%)
50-64: ALL (29%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (27%)
65+: ALL (25%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (11%)

https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf

[BoAtlantis]

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

18-24: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (18%), NOT YET VOTED (34%)
35-49: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (20%), NOT YET VOTED (29%)
50-64: ALL (29%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (27%)
65+: ALL (25%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (11%)

https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf

Game over

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes the young guns you can def. count on showing up on election day in CO to vote for Hillary lol.

[The Other Castro]

The younglings come in later.

[ApatheticAustrian]

colorado's liberal marijuana policies were a mistake.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

colorado's liberal marijuana policies were a mistake.

I don't think so..Better then throwing millions of people in prison like we currently are....

It is called freedom.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I don't think so..Better then throwing millions of people in prison like we currently are....

It is called freedom.

it's a "too stoned to vote early" joke.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  39s39 seconds ago
23,500 had voted by 2 PM in Clark. Record turnout possible. 50,000?