absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Classic Conservative]

Our great friend SouthernGothic a registered GA voter, voted for Trump/Pence today!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  39s39 seconds ago
23,500 had voted by 2 PM in Clark. Record turnout possible. 50,000?

YESYESYES

[ApatheticAustrian]

just forget nevada at this point.....

[Ozymandias]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

[ApatheticAustrian]

those people never vote.....

it'a a shame brewer's state is too safe R.

[Minnesota Mike]

Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

My guess by the time early voting is over Dems will have a 1-2% lead. Souls to the polls is this coming Sunday and while all the major Democratic leaning counties will be open for early voting Sunday most Republican leaning counties will be closed.  Also  with so many voters voting early election day voting is bound to be way down. Tougher to make up a deficit with fewer voters.

[The Other Castro]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

Wait what?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

Wait what?

Between the huge surge of women and latino's I'll put Florida in the likely column. The door is slamming shut on Trumps face.

[ApatheticAustrian]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

[Dr. Arch]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

Wait what?

Trump is gonna get schlonged in FL.

[Dr. Arch]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

Wonderful! Add several thousands to the D column.

[Xing]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

Fantastic news! Republicans can't continue to win elections by suppressing the vote!

[win win]

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

[The Other Castro]

Are you saying THE Jon Ralston is wrong? BLASPHEMY!!!

[28277Liberal]

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45.

Clinton leads 46-41 in Michigan, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Clinton's lead grows slightly to 50/44 in a head to head between her and Trump.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Virginia, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 1%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. Her leads grows slightly to 51/45 in a head to head between her and Trump.

NH +3
NEVADA +3
NC +2
PA +4
WI +7

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/11/clinton-leads-by-5-in-firewall-states.html

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  7m7 minutes ago
Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  2m2 minutes ago
In GOP Rep. Darrell Issa's #CA49, Dems have cut GOP voter registration lead from 48.3k in '12 to 25.5k now. Big reason why he's in danger.

[ApatheticAustrian]

ralston is nailing NV......everything makes sense if you follow him.

[Xing]

No, Ralston is right on the money. The fact that Trump has no ground game or appeal to voters who aren't uneducated white men is coming through very clearly in the early NV results.

[rafta_rafta]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

[ApatheticAustrian]

No, Ralston is right on the money. The fact that Trump has no ground game or appeal to voters who aren't uneducated white men is coming through very clearly in the early NV results.

in fact, lots of people in NV are uneducated white men but seemingly not enough.

[win win]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Well if it's a 10 point lead 55-45, that puts the current lead at less than 2.

I should add Ralston was at the DNC.

[RI]

Steve Schale

Keep getting asked about NPA versus FL electorate as a whole.
Its more diverse:
All voters:  68w - 12.2b - 14.4h
NPA: 64.2w - 6.3b - 19.9h

I checked the math, and that's essentially a wash as blacks are more monolithically Dem than Hispanics.

[rafta_rafta]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Well if it's a 10 point lead 55-45, that puts the current lead at less than 2.

I should add Ralston was at the DNC.

You are confusing partisanship with competence. Ralston *may* be wrong but there is  no historical indication that he is. Trump has a very poor ground game and Nevada is a notoriously hard state to poll given its high casino worker population who work irregular shifts.

[Ronnie]

First of all, self-identified unaffiliated voters are not the same thing as registered unaffiliated voters, who skew more Democratic.

Second of all, the CNN poll you're referencing has Trump leading by a point in Clark County, which is utterly absurd and not going to happen.

[Ricky1121]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?