absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

This is absolutely bizarre from the original quoted article:

"Under state law, any voter can challenge another county resident's registration, resulting in a hearing at which the challenger presents evidence, according to a state legal filing. If local officials find probable cause, the challenged voter is given notice of a subsequent hearing. A voter who doesn't rebut the evidence can be removed."

How can be this legit, particularly in a former Jim Crow state that a voter can be removed from the rolls simply on the testimony of another resident of the county? Also this whole concept of "undeliverable ballots" is completely bizarre to me. In Oregon, we can track the status of our mail ballot and estimated postal delivery date, report lost/stolen ballots to obtain a replacement, and drop off our ballots in any mailbox or ballot drop box anywhere in the state regardless of county.

 

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

[dspNY]

Hillsborough County:

Dems win VBM by 270, win in-person early vote by 1506 for a total win of 1,776 votes. Lead is almost 22K

[Cashew]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

[NOVA Green]

When does early voting end in CO?

never, since it's mail-only.

How does their VbM work? Is it like Oregon where ballots need to be received in the mail by ED, or California where ballots need to be postmarked by ED?

Also, do they have ballot drop sites liberally distributed throughout every county, or do they need to be  mail or delivered to the county election office/courthouse?

[Speed of Sound]

@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY

Last two days of early voting in NC have been very good for Dems, per our estimates. Lots of irregular Clinton vt

[BlueSwan]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Exactly. I prefer voting in the booth. But obviously voter registration should be automatic, there should be plenty of chances of early voting in all states, there should not be a voter ID requirement unless voter ID's are issued automatically and there should be loads of polling places.

[NOVA Green]

The white vote is up in many states like AZ, NV, FL, NC, and TX.
Who are these white voters?
According to both sides, democrats are drawing new voters, republicans are drawing repeat voters somewhat. These less likely voters won't be picked up in the polls of likely voters.

The Washingtin post had an article on 10/27 entitled "How the
early vote is shaping up in Texas, Nevada, and Florida".
They cleary show in their charts that these new voters are coming from democratic TX and NV counties 2 to 1 suggesting Hillary voters maybe. But today they mention white vote surging in FL and make no mention of what counties these votes are coming from.
It would seem to me that if these white voters are likely decide this election, they should mention," Hey 60% are coming from democratic leaning counties or something". Doesn't  mean they will vote any which way but for the sake if transparency...

Welcome to the Forum Goldwater!

There are a lot of different items you mentioned in your post, but yeah unfortunately it gets frustrating for political geeks like all of us, in that each state has different reporting information, partisan identification, etc... so that's why many of us love Atlas is we can share the data that others have crunched, crunch the data we can that has not been crunched elsewhere, and debate about what it actually means all at the same time!

I'm not sure about your source on White voter turnout being higher, and obviously a major of Latinos identify as "White" for their race, and "Latino" for their ethnicity, so could be confusing right on that front.

I'm assuming you are talking about Anglos ("White" non-Latinos)? If so, obviously total turnout will be higher in fast growing areas of the Sunbelt for all populations that are expanding in population, but then the other metric to look at is percentage of increase of the voting population, compared to total amount of eligible voters is where we are seeing some interesting data this year regarding the "Latino Surge".

So yes--- best to just sift through the data we're seeing, take a look at US Census data, past county and precinct level elections returns etc... since the MSM doesn't always dig into an Uber level of geekdom since they are writing articles for a larger audience.

[NOVA Green]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

I don't want to clog up the thread on this topic, so maybe someone should open or bump another thread where we can discuss this further, but I guarantee that if this were an issue in the first 100% VbM state in the country, it would be all over as a topic of conversation.

I won't comment further on this particular thread on that topic, but the real issue here is that many of these 4,500 voters in North Carolina that are heavily African-American in the Eastern part of the state (Jesse Helms country) will likely have their right to vote reinstated, and if NC comes down to a few thousand vote difference (Think FL 2000) these early votes could actually have a real impact.

[Goldwater64]

Thanks.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Nearly 38K had voted in Clark by 5 PM. With locations staying open late, they may get to 50K, after all. Then we look at the margin....
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/with_replies?lang=de

[BoAtlantis]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

[NOVA Green]

@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY

Last two days of early voting in NC have been very good for Dems, per our estimates. Lots of irregular Clinton vt

So if I read this graph correctly, and it hurts my aging eyes...

Basically Nate Cohn is currently predicting an NC +6C win and that 55% of the electorate has already voted?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY

Last two days of early voting in NC have been very good for Dems, per our estimates. Lots of irregular Clinton vt

So if I read this graph correctly, and it hurts my aging eyes...

Basically Nate Cohn is currently predicting an NC +6C win and that 55% of the electorate has already voted?

Around that, yes.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

No, as I said many times (more then >3 times, for sure), this model is based on one poll only, but is using EV data as some kind of LV screen. So it is alread brought from +7 to +6. By 1%, which is (oh the irony) is a house effect of Sienna poll according to Nate Silver's model. And if the race have tightened (and it is indeed true), the estimation are wrong as well. But sigh...

#EducationInAmericaSucks
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794694744303632385

[JJC]

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/absentee-ballots/93284370/

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For those who don't know, both Oakland and Wayne were carried by Obama. But Oakland was much narrower, going 53% - 45%, whereas Wayne went 73% - 26%.

Obama's advantage in Wayne accounted for 382,032 votes, while Oakland accounted for 52,488. This represents nearly the entirety for his margin of victory of 449,313 votes in 2012.

Oakland: total - 645,516 (O:349,002) (R:296,514) 53% - 45%
Wayne: 809,660 (O:595,846) (R:213,814) 73% - 26%

Detroit EV (Wayne) is expected to amount to 65,000 votes. In 2012 they amounted to 81,000 votes. That's a -19.75% decrease. If Wayne county turnout is low then dems might be in trouble.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton      Trump         Clinton      Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/3
                       Clinton        Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted   1,235,000   1,003,000   52.8%   42.9% (9.9% gap)
Yet to vote           995,000   952,000      45.4%    43.5%
Total estimates   2,229,000   1,955,000   49.2%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/4
                          Clinton          Trump          Clinton    Trump
Already voted   1,353,000   1,117,000   52.4%   43.2% (9.2% gap)
Yet to vote           900,000      860,000       45.3%   43.2%
Total estimates   2,254,000   1,977,000   49.3%   43.2%

[PollsDontLie]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

[Crumpets]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

Yes, but in other states, there are 5+ hour lines, of course predominantly in minority areas and around universities.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Steve Schale

Keep getting asked about NPA versus FL electorate as a whole.
Its more diverse:
All voters:  68w - 12.2b - 14.4h
NPA: 64.2w - 6.3b - 19.9h

I checked the math, and that's essentially a wash as blacks are more monolithically Dem than Hispanics.

Yeah

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

Racism!
You are a rich straight angry White deplorable kid who don't undenstand how it feels like to be poor and vote being poor.

Hint: it is not easy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

[riceowl]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

Please do!

[ApatheticAustrian]

voting is reeeeeeeeally easy in some states and some states want it to be more difficult.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

Please do!

MI has extremely tight controls over absentee voting and does not have traditional early voting AT ALL.

[Speed of Sound]

No, as I said many times (more then >3 times, for sure), this model is based on one poll only, but is using EV data as some kind of LV screen. So it is alread brought from +7 to +6. By 1%, which is (oh the irony) is a house effect of Sienna poll according to Nate Silver's model. And if the race have tightened (and it is indeed true), the estimation are wrong as well. But sigh...

#EducationInAmericaSucks
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794694744303632385

It burns every part of my soul to say this, but LBP and me have indeed had to have this convo a few too many times. The entire projection is pegged to a single self run and oldish poll, which actually showed her one higher than voting is showing so far. Think of her as one back on polling....only if their poll hit their electorate and rates right. If that poll failed....this model is literally meaningless.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton      Trump         Clinton      Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/3
                       Clinton        Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted   1,235,000   1,003,000   52.8%   42.9% (9.9% gap)
Yet to vote           995,000   952,000      45.4%    43.5%
Total estimates   2,229,000   1,955,000   49.2%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/4
                          Clinton          Trump          Clinton    Trump
Already voted   1,353,000   1,117,000   52.4%   43.2% (9.2% gap)
Yet to vote           900,000      860,000       45.3%   43.2%
Total estimates   2,254,000   1,977,000   49.3%   43.2%

Damn....NC is gone for Trump.