absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  41m41 minutes ago
Yesterday EV in Florida really helped the overall diversity:
Friday:
White: 61.4%
Black: 14.9%
Hispanic: 16.8%
Other: 6.9%
1/2

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  39m39 minutes ago
Overall EV diversity in Florida through Friday:
White: 67.5%
Black: 12.4%
Hispanic: 14.6%

Definitely trending more diverse than 2012.
2/2

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  38m38 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Nate Cohn Retweeted Steve Schale
Florida electorate poised to be more diverse than our poll, or most of our September panelists

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  38m38 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Our final FL poll was 67.4 white, 12.7 black, 14 Hisp. (would have been lower if there hadn't been that hurricane, slowed final reg data)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

But in 2012 it was according to exit polls:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

White    67%
Black    13%
Latino   17%


Does latino vote usually increase during ED?
Or does exit-polls underestimate whites?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

But in 2012 it was according to exit polls:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

White    67%
Black    13%
Latino   17%


Does latino vote usually increase during ED?
Or does exit-polls underestimate whites?

This seems to have pushed "others". Many are likely black or Hispanics, and are included in reg data but not exit polls from the looks of it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

But in 2012 it was according to exit polls:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

White    67%
Black    13%
Latino   17%


Does latino vote usually increase during ED?
Or does exit-polls underestimate whites?

This seems to have pushed "others". Many are likely black or Hispanics, and are included in reg data but not exit polls from the looks of it.

The exit poll has asian and other at 2% each. So exit-poll 2012 was:

White:                    67%
African-american:   13%
Latino:                   17%
Asian:                     2%
Other:                     2%

RV from L2 voter file of active Florida voters:
White                      65%   
Black                      13%       
Hispanic                  15%   
Other                       5%

So maybe you're right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Dr. Arch]

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Keep that momentum going!

[Ebsy]

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But black people aren't voting! Ralstonsucks told me!

[dspNY]

Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern. That would be pretty astonishing because Duval is a lean GOP county

[win win]

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But black people aren't voting! Ralstonsucks told me!

Wow one county.

[Ebsy]

Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern

Woah if true.

[Speed of Sound]

Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern

Woah if true.

No kidding. If Dems win Duval even after the great Dixie purge....wow.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Early voting has surged among Hispanics in key swing states, new data show. It’s a possible sign of strength for Hillary Clinton.

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But

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So true

[dspNY]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

[Dr. Arch]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

[dspNY]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

I just had to make fun of the "African-Americans are not voting narrative." They weren't voting as much early but are making the charge late

[Landslide Lyndon]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

I think the most important consequence of that might be that on election day there won't be any more insanely long lines.

[BoAtlantis]

[Antonio the Sixth]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

I just had to make fun of the "African-Americans are not voting narrative." They weren't voting as much early but are making the charge late

Florida definitely is looking strong. It's NC I'm very much concerned about (and, no, I won't shut up about it).

[The Other Castro]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

[Sbane]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

[dspNY]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

This I could see in a worst-case scenario

[Lyin' Steve]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

This I could see in a worst-case scenario

Could be if more Hispanics registered Democratic this year.

[dspNY]

Interesting stats out of Georgia:

White: 59.9%
African-American: 27.8%
Hispanic: 1.5%
Other: 2.2%
Unknown: 8.7%

Who are the "unknown" demographically in Georgia? The known white vote is now a tick under 60%

[dspNY]

DUUUVAL

DEM: 114,778
GOP: 114,774
IND: 43,705

They might still be counting but the polls have closed there. I think anyone still in line there has to be allowed to vote today

[Speed of Sound]

Can someone summarize why everyone is so confident about the Florida early vote when it looks basically tied to me.

It's on the assumption that UFAs, since they experienced a huge surge in non-white and younger voters, will swing towards HRC. Two-party tie=HRC win in that scenario. Also, I wouldn't call it "so confident" (or, if some people are, they shouldn't be), but some of the excitement comes from the fact that it looked early like it was going the other way. To have it leaning HRC instead is a great turn around, and maybe a sign of the GOTV's strength in general.