absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, I don't get why everyone is so excited about racial breakdown in FL and NC.

Even right now the electorate is about the same as 2012 total in FL and NC. But we know (if polls are right) that Trump will be doing much better on the Election Day, which sort of implies that ED electorate will be much whiter& probably males. So the total electorate will be also slightly whiter, but probably more female that 2012.

Or?

[Dr. Arch]

BTW, I don't get why everyone is so excited about racial breakdown in FL and NC.

Even right now the electorate is about the same as 2012 total in FL and NC. But we know (if polls are right) that Trump will be doing much better on the Election Day, which sort of implies that ED electorate will be much whiter& probably males. So the total electorate will be also slightly whiter, but probably more female that 2012.

Or?

That's not how it works. Also, the final Hispanic share of the electorate will absolutely be larger this year.

[Speed of Sound]

As of 11:00 AM, 13,149 voters in Broward County have voted. We could be headed for a massive Sunday there

Wow.......!

[BoAtlantis]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

[Devout Centrist]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

And this is what's terrifying for Trump: He's got not GOTV and working class White turnout isn't exactly stellar as it stands.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, I don't get why everyone is so excited about racial breakdown in FL and NC.

Even right now the electorate is about the same as 2012 total in FL and NC. But we know (if polls are right) that Trump will be doing much better on the Election Day, which sort of implies that ED electorate will be much whiter& probably males. So the total electorate will be also slightly whiter, but probably more female that 2012.

Or?

That's not how it works. Also, the final Hispanic share of the electorate will absolutely be larger this year.

So how does it work, if polls are right?

[ApatheticAustrian]

as i said...won't make any NC/FL projections....too volatile and too.many unknown factors.

[Absolution9]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

8% third party???

[Tender Branson]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (the leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

[Dr. Arch]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, about Dixiecrats.

If this site is right, so we have following stats: https://electionbettingodds.com/earlyvoting.html

So increase of Reps in NC and FL is much lower than decrease of Dems. So it is not only about Dixiecrats.

And I doubt that "new" UFA:s will vote more democratic that "gone" Dems. No?

Specially when we know, that Blacks (90% for Hillary) has decreased their share.

Austria =! U.S.

Hillary =! Obama

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the general turnout is high, big cities are favored.

brexit was low turnout in remain-areas as everyone knows.

[Devout Centrist]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (the leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Please stop comparing the US to Austria.

I hate it when people try to compare America to Denmark, I don't like the reverse either.

[Tender Branson]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

Obviously. Yes.

But it could mirror the Austrian Presidential election this time, just on a 40x bigger scale.

Also the candidates are roughly comparable (VdB more so with Hillary, just without her email scandal and secrecy issues and Hofer being way more likeable than asshole Trump).

[Dr. Arch]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

Obviously. Yes.

But it could mirror the Austrian Presidential election this time, just on a 40x bigger scale.

Also the candidates are roughly comparable (VdB more so with Hillary, just without her email scandal and secrecy issues and Hofer being way more likeable than asshole Trump).

This post shows a serious lack of understanding of different political landscapes.

[Brittain33]

Also the candidates are roughly comparable

Hillary Clinton is a major party candidate; Austria's major parties have been eclipsed by splinter groups. No comparison.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

8% third party???

May include those who refused to say who they voted for.

[ApatheticAustrian]

tender has a point even while he makes it in a really unconvincing way, imho.

less about austria than about countries feeling the wave of new big-gov right-wing-populism, killing the old conservative parties.

even while i would suggest, demographics and economy of the US makes it more robust against crypto-fascism than europe.

[Tender Branson]

There's also another similarity between the Austrian and the coming US election that you cannot deny:

Hofer (who's actually the far-right candidate) did very well in rural, formerly heavy industrial/mining Social-Democratic voting areas. Much like Trump does in former heavily Democratic-voting states, such as WV/KY/TN/AR and the likes.

VdB on the other hand won some rural areas that voted heavily Conservative in the 1980s, much like some US conservatives are now abandoning Trump in states like UT, VA, CO etc.

[Devout Centrist]

There's also another similarity between the Austrian and the coming US election that you cannot deny:

Hofer (who's actually the far-right candidate) did very well in rural, formerly heavy industrial/mining Social-Democratic voting areas. Much like Trump does in former heavily Democratic-voting states, such as WV/KY/TN/AR and the likes.

VdB on the other hand won some rural areas that voted heavily Conservative in the 1980s, much like some US conservatives are now abandoning Trump in states like UT, VA, CO etc.

This trend has been going on for over 20 years and isn't exactly new or recent.

[Ozymandias]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

8% third party???

May include those who refused to say who they voted for.

What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected.  Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots?  I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%.  This isn't the first poll that has shown this.

I don't think the missing 8% is all 3rd party vote-- what I've noticed while compiling all the early voting poll results is that very often a few percent won't say who they voted for (listed as "unsure", "none", etc.)

Now why these early voting non-respondents are still kept in the poll instead of being thrown out, I have no idea...

[ApatheticAustrian]

final post on that matter....if austria is a sign, HRC would kill it in CO/NC/GA.

[Brittain33]

tender has a point even while he makes it in a really unconvincing way, imho.

less about austria than about countries feeling the wave of new big-gov right-wing-populism, killing the old conservative parties.

even while i would suggest, demographics and economy of the US makes it more robust against crypto-fascism than europe.

There is certainly an analogy between the Trump phenomenon and right-wing politics all over Europe. It is a powerful force.

But each election has two sides, and there is no comparison between a Democratic candidate with a reasonably united and very strong campaign apparatus and a Green Party gadfly who mainly benefited from being a vessel for anti-fascist votes. Whatever your personal view of Hillary Clinton—and Tender has not been shy in expressing his disgust—she is a strong candidate among a large share of the Democratic coalition.

[Tender Branson]

final post on that matter....if austria is a sign, HRC would kill it in CO/NC/GA.

(--- almost the final post ---)

Why ?

Vorarlberg = UT

Tyrol = CO

But what is NC and GA ?

Upper Austria or Lower Austria. Hard to tell. Or: if Austria is any sign then it's that Trump and Hillary will split the major battleground states in an overall very tight election. Hofer won the battleground state of Lower Austria, while VdB won the battleground state of Upper Austria (which always votes extremely close to Austria as a whole).

[Tender Branson]

The final puzzle in the Austria vs. US comparison will be the early vote vs. election day vote:

Like in Austria, the early vote in the US is heavily Dem/left (almost identical according to polls: 60-65%) - and the election day vote was heavily Hofer (52-48).

It remains to be seen if Trump can mobilize as much as Hofer did with the election day folk.