absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Xing]

Meanwhile, Democrats now lead Duval by over 800 votes. Should crack 1,000 today.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

I have been saying it for a couple of days. The electorate doesn't seem more non-white that 2012 in battleground states. Whites and Hispanics are up, Blacks are down.

Yeah,  gender will help Dems, but racial breakdown won't, if this pattern holds.

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

Yet what you say isn't how it works as well.  Just because you don't like Hillary doesn't mean you need to keep throwing sh**t all over this thread. 

According to polls, it is. ED will be less black than EV

[Speed of Sound]

Meanwhile, Democrats now lead Duval by over 800 votes. Should crack 1,000 today.

Going to be very hard for Trump to match Romney in Duval.

[Ebsy]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

Early voting in general is obviously becoming much more popular, but African American voters were already over-utilizing early voting in reference to their share of the population, so they were pretty much already maxed out in terms of early voting and thus couldn't really expand their number as more white voters took advantage. Considering the high number of white voters that have been "High propensity" and thus have voted in the past 3 elections, most of this expansion in white early voters has been people that used to vote on election day deciding to vote early.

[Maxwell]

I need to drop black turnout pretty low (45%) for it to start doing serious damage, according to 538's updated demographic model. And that's not including the surge of latinos, the revolt of college educated whites, and the jump in female turnout.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Is this legit?  If so, she would seem to be screwed in Florida and North Carolina.

It is from here https://electionbettingodds.com/earlyvoting.html

But I think, they got it a bit wrong? Or?

I need to drop black turnout pretty low (45%) for it to start doing serious damage, according to 538's updated demographic model. And that's not including the surge of latinos, the revolt of college educated whites, and the jump in female turnout.

We are talking about relative share. If both Whites and Hispanics surge, while Blacks are the same/slightly lower => their relative share might drop considerably.

[psychprofessor]

when looking at the white vote in NC, please use Nate Cohn's model to look at WHERE the white vote is increasing - for instance, the Unaffiliated white vote is disproportionately educated, urban and younger. Wholesale claims that higher white vote is bad for Clinton doesn't take into account the unprecedented swing in college educated whites for her. Look at today's NBC poll - Clinton wins educated whites by 10 - a demo that Romney won by 6. NC is increasingly more college educated and with the influx of non-NC born whites, this is a demo that she will do well with.

Further, NC was one state that severely limited early voting in disproportionate black counties. Will these people show up on election day? If the evidence from FL, GA and LA is transferable, then yes, they will. But I don't think she needs to rely as heavily on this turnout since the UA turnout has spiked and should provide her a nice cushion.

[psychprofessor]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

[psychprofessor]

we're a little past 12 pm EST and Broward County is almost at 20k early votes...SOULS TO THE POLLS

[Sigh144]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

[Dr. Arch]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

I have a feeling Iowa will be decided by a razor thin result (<0.5).

[psychprofessor]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

Not a lot of Latino's in Iowa

[GeorgiaModerate]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

[Ebsy]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

Not a lot of Latino's in Iowa

There are more than you might think but probably not enough turnout to actually impact a statewide race.

[Speed of Sound]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess there has been a major re-alignment in IA...raw numbers of party reg. would have suggested a dem victory of 3 points otherwise.

[Dr. Arch]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

Yep, about right. I'd modify NC to say more of the unknown indications look good for Clinton than for Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

I am not so sure about Florida. Yeah, more hispanics, but less black. We also don't know what type of Whites turnout. If it share of uneducated R & D whites is about the same or higher than 2012, it'd great news for Trump, if not, he'is done.

I base it on 2 polls from Upshot/Sienna and 1 from Selzer. Both use voter file. Trump was pretty strong among D whites.

Otherwise, I agree. More or less.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

As of this morning, turnout in Florida is up 29% from OVERALL early in-person and vote-by-mail ballots cast relative to Total 2012 early vote, that is...

[dspNY]

Broward on pace for a 40K turnout. As of 1:00 PM, 20,241 voters have cast ballots early in Broward

[Landslide Lyndon]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

I'd say you nailed it perfectly; what say the others?

Yep, about right. I'd modify NC to say more of the unknown indications look good for Clinton than for Trump.

Literally every poll showed Clinton dominating the North Carolina early vote.
Not really sure why suddenly everyone thinks the opposite.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

To prove my point about uneducated white voters (Reps and Dems) if Florida and other ~similar states. It is not completely off-topic here, since we were talking about Dixiecrats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html

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[Sigh144]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

[afleitch]

To prove my point about uneducated white voters (Reps and Dems) if Florida and other ~similar states. It is not completely off-topic here, since we were talking about Dixiecrats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html

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What looks like a 7 point drop for Clinton amongst those without a degree is amongst a group with a 55% turnout in 2012.

What looks like a 12 point jump in support for Clinton amongst those with a degree is amongst a group with a 78% turnout rate in 2012.

So for every vote lost (assuming no change in turnout correlation, even if white voters as a whole go up) through non college educated voters, she's picking up 2.4 amongst those who are college educated.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

Uuh, no. He's winning them by about 15 from how it looks