absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

Well, they always say that California is the state that sets national trends, and we've seen what has happened there since Prop 187 in 1994. Certainly at least a possibility something similar happens nationwide.

[TarHeelDem]

I think the election of the first Latina Senator (fingers crossed) will count for something.

[NOVA Green]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

Well, they always say that California is the state that sets national trends, and we've seen what has happened there since Prop 187 in 1994. Certainly at least a possibility something similar happens nationwide.

THIS.... been saying it four years, and it appears this year we are not only seeing it in Nevada, but also even in Arizona and Texas.

Florida is its own bag because of the historical dominance of the Cuban-American community, and the extremely recent explosion of Puerto Rican Americans leaving the Island as a result of the extreme negligence of the Federal Government over decades, combined with an increased Afro-Carribbean community hasn't gotten any love or respect from Florida Republicans ever, in what used to be the Right Southern anchor of the sunbelt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

Oh, thank God.

[JimSharp]

Can't the Pennsylvania legislature call an emergency session and legislate them back to work? Surely the transit union isn't so tone deaf they're willing to risk turning the Oval Office to that pervert?

Pennsy legislature is Rep. They would love nothing more than the strike to shut Philly down completely. If they could legislate an early snow storm they'd do that too.

Will the union shoot itself in the foot? Having grown up in Philly, you can't ever underestimate how silly things can get. Better for all of us if FLA just gets it done.

[IceSpear]

The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

Oh, thank God.

For the last time, this would've had a negligible effect anyway. But at least all the bedwetting will stop now.

[Xing]

We can't completely rule out a Trump win in Florida, but unless the data we have is missing something absolutely massive, Clinton is definitely favored to win it, and thus the election.

[Speed of Sound]

The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

Oh, thank God.

For the last time, this would've had a negligible effect anyway. But at least all the bedwetting will stop now.

And, as I noted often:

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As I mentioned in the early vote thread, anyone who thinks that the Democratic bigwigs and the union bigwigs in PA won't strike a deal to protect the election outcome knows nothing about PA politics.

Like the Philly union thugs will let this give the election to Trump lmao

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Seriously. I know PA quite well. Union leaders and Dems aint gonna let that happen. If she loses PA, unions wont be the problem.

[BlueSwan]

One thing that makes me sceptical of the seemingly good EV results for dems in NV, FL and CO, is that you would think that this would be reflected in polls. If lots of low propensity voters were showing up for Clinton, that should make polls move rather dramatically in Clintons direction because pollsters usually ask people if they have already voted. Instead, what the polls seem to be saying is that Clinton has a huge advantage with early voters, but that this is countered by an equally big Trump advantage amongst expected election day voters.

I guess I am just very cautious about concluding anything based on what we have seen so far. The only thing I think I will conclude is that we are not in for a Trump landslide, but that has been clear since the beginning.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing that makes me sceptical of the seemingly good EV results for dems in NV, FL and CO, is that you would think that this would be reflected in polls. If lots of low propensity voters were showing up for Clinton, that should make polls move rather dramatically in Clintons direction because pollsters usually ask people if they have already voted. Instead, what the polls seem to be saying is that Clinton has a huge advantage with early voters, but that this is countered by an equally big Trump advantage amongst expected election day voters.

I guess I am just very cautious about concluding anything based on what we have seen so far. The only thing I think I will conclude is that we are not in for a Trump landslide, but that has been clear since the beginning.

Better than your usual outright doom and gloom. You're missing a few key points...

[BlueSwan]

One thing that makes me sceptical of the seemingly good EV results for dems in NV, FL and CO, is that you would think that this would be reflected in polls. If lots of low propensity voters were showing up for Clinton, that should make polls move rather dramatically in Clintons direction because pollsters usually ask people if they have already voted. Instead, what the polls seem to be saying is that Clinton has a huge advantage with early voters, but that this is countered by an equally big Trump advantage amongst expected election day voters.

I guess I am just very cautious about concluding anything based on what we have seen so far. The only thing I think I will conclude is that we are not in for a Trump landslide, but that has been clear since the beginning.

Better than your usual outright doom and gloom. You're missing a few key points...

Well, I currently have Clinton as a 70% favourite to win - just wrote a long Facebook post in danish explaining my overall takeaways from early voting - so I am not THAT pessimistic. But yeah, I'm scared of Trump and the uneducated white vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not in a premature celebratory mode, far from that.
But seriously, when was the last time Democrats lost an election because of too high turnout?

[Tender Branson]

Well, if there are long lines of older or middle-aged white people on CNN tomorrow it should be good news for Trump.

If not, good news for Hillary.

[Iosif]

Well, if there are long lines of older or middle-aged white people on CNN tomorrow it should be good news for Trump.

If not, good news for Hillary.

Is that what happened in Austria?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well, if there are long lines of older or middle-aged white people on CNN tomorrow it should be good news for Trump.

If not, good news for Hillary.

I imagine seeing long lines of old white people in Little Havana would be of concern.

[Panda Express]

Normally I would be willing to call Florida for Hillary but with that transit strike in Philadelphia, Trump can still win the Sunshine State

[Iosif]

Normally I would be willing to call Florida for Hillary but with that transit strike in Philadelphia, Trump can still win the Sunshine State

My feeling is the Hurricane Matthew will flip Wisconsin for Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

Just so we have the figures readily available to compare when yesterday's in-person partisan breakdowns are finally published:

Miami-Dade (in-person through Saturday)
D: 194,777 (46.1%)
R: 113,386 (26.8%)
NPA: 108,797 (25.7%)
Other: 5,783 (1.4%)

Miami-Dade (mail through Sunday)
D: 116,819 (41.0%)
R: 97,921 (34.3%)
NPA: 66,757 (23.4%)
Other: 3,640 (1.3%)

[mark_twain]

Just so we have the figures readily available to compare when yesterday's in-person partisan breakdowns are finally published:

Miami-Dade (in-person through Saturday)
D: 194,777 (46.1%)
R: 113,386 (26.8%)
NPA: 108,797 (25.7%)
Other: 5,783 (1.4%)

Miami-Dade (mail through Sunday)
D: 116,819 (41.0%)
R: 97,921 (34.3%)
NPA: 66,757 (23.4%)
Other: 3,640 (1.3%)

Great numbers for Clinton!

[Adam Griffin]

Miami-Dade In-Person (Sunday)
D: 23,847 (44.9%)
R: 11,916 (22.4%)
NPA: 16,584 (31.2%)
Other: 748 (1.5%)

With Sunday's vote now in, Republicans sink to third place in Miami-Dade in in-person voting, behind NPA.

Miami-Dade (in-person through Sunday)
D: 218,624 (46.0%)
NPA: 125,381 (26.3%)
R: 125,302 (26.3%)
Other: 6,531 (1.4%)

Miami-Dade (mail through Sunday)
D: 116,819 (41.0%)
R: 97,921 (34.3%)
NPA: 66,757 (23.4%)
Other: 3,640 (1.3%)

Miami-Dade Total (through Sunday)
D: 335,443 (44.1%)
R: 223,223 (29.3%)
NPA: 192,138 (25.2%)
Other: 10,171 (1.4%)

Miami-Dade early vote as a share of 2012 total vote: 86.6%


Florida early vote as a share of 2012 total vote: 75.6%

[fldemfunds]

Dems doubled republicans up yesterday in florida ev

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/795617730443542531

Nc among those who have voted, c+12
Fl, c+4

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
CORREX - Dems beat GOP in FL on Sunday by 54K voters, not over 40K.
#NeverMathBeforeCoffee

[Virginiá]

THIS.... been saying it four years, and it appears this year we are not only seeing it in Nevada, but also even in Arizona and Texas.

Florida is its own bag because of the historical dominance of the Cuban-American community, and the extremely recent explosion of Puerto Rican Americans leaving the Island as a result of the extreme negligence of the Federal Government over decades, combined with an increased Afro-Carribbean community hasn't gotten any love or respect from Florida Republicans ever, in what used to be the Right Southern anchor of the sunbelt.

The main benefit from Prop 187 actually seems to be that Democrats locked in >72% of the Hispanic vote, up from low-60s before the proposition. That is way more beneficial towards PV margins than a marginal uptick in turnout.

It does look like there was a surge in turnout, and it would make sense for it to maintain itself for at least a couple cycles, but one also has to remember that Hispanic population growth exploded in California in the 90s/2000s. I'm not entirely sure turnout was permanently affected. Though, CA Hispanic turnout rates since the 90s to compare so I can't say for sure.

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Updated FL #earlyvote numbers: Dems +88,012 (+1.4 points) vs Reps. Could still see further updates, although I think this is all for today