absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[PresidentTRUMP]

In 2012 Dems were +3 in total EV.

Romney won election day by 2.1%

Which resulted in a Obama win in the state by 0.9%.

Do we have the percent that Clinton won EV in FL by yet?

[Speed of Sound]

Do we have the percent that Clinton won EV in FL by yet?

Ignoring all of your #analysis, no we don't know anything about candidate %s since they won't release any vote information until the polls close.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.com/

Total Ballots cast:   6,419,154
Total Vote By Mail:  2,549,633 (41.5%)
Total Early Vote:  3,869,521 (58.5%)

Democrats:  2,558.072 (39.85%)
Republicans: 2,470,823 (38.49%)
NPA: 1,390,259 (21.66%)

Total Margin: DEM +1.36%

How big is the final weekend for Dems?

Friday: Dems +0.13 (+7K)
Saturday: Dems +0.59 (+32K)
Sunday: Dems +1.36 (+87K)

And when you add Sunday, here is how the NPA tracked over the last week
After Sunday: 21.66%
After Sat: 21.35%
After Fri: 20.55%
After Thurs: 20.2%
After Wed: 19.8%

South Florida

It was like Miami had LeBron back yesterday, joined by Jordan in his prime.  
Over 100,000 people voted in just Broward and Dade yesterday.  In other words, 40% of yesterday came from the two biggest Democratic counties in Florida.  Anyone care to write the “lack of enthusiasm” story today.
After Sunday: 19.3%

Duuuuuuval

The Obama effect:
D’s were down 3,000 when he got there.
They finish early voting up 4,248

#ThanksObama

Will Dems win Duval?  Hell no.  Will Trump win it by the Bush 04 margins he needs to make up from the Dade County wave?  Absolutely not.

[afleitch]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

[Dr. Arch]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

That 2% decrease in the White share is super spoopy.

[Speed of Sound]

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

There's Steve's magic number, right on time.

[Person Man]

The question then becomes is if there are enough famous Florida Neocons (that will still hold their nose over Trump) and single issue antiabortionists amongst the Hispanics to give Trump the state.

[Virginiá]

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Maybe, but I'm inclined to believe not so much - at least over the next generation. If this was a viable possibility for the GOP, wouldn't it happen with 2nd/3rd+ generation Hispanics? It's going to take a long time for the numbers to be there where they can begin to turn the tide on this part of the electorate. And that's if they can even do it in any significant way.

Personally I see no reason to give the GOP the benefit of the doubt. Not with the current direction their party is headed in.

[Dr. Arch]

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Maybe, but I'm inclined to believe not so much - at least over the next generation. If this was a viable possibility for the GOP, wouldn't it happen with 2nd/3rd+ generation Hispanics? It's going to take a long time for the numbers to be there where they can begin to turn the tide on this part of the electorate. And that's if they can even do it in any significant way.

Personally I see no reason to give the GOP the benefit of the doubt. Not with the current direction their party is headed in.

If anything, this cycle has done the exact opposite of assimilation.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

[Person Man]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

I generally thought of them as multi-racial people who grew up in a Romance-language speaking household so that you could include Brazilians.

I mean, are Spanish people Hispanic? Are Italians, Quebecios, and Portuguese Latino?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Not sure why D's are so excited about FL:

2012 EV

Obama +3

2012 ED

Romney +2.1%

Result

Obama +0.9%

2016 EV

Clinton +1%

2016 ED

Lets cut the Romney number to 0.6% and say Trump +1.5% election day. I would argue Trump will do even better election day in FL than Romney did but this is just to show why Trump is in great position to take FL.

Result:

Trump wins FL by 0.5%

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure why D's are so excited about FL:

2012 EV

Obama +3

2012 ED

Romney +2.1%

Result

Obama +0.9%

2016 EV

Clinton +1%

2016 ED

Lets cut the Romney number to 0.6% and say Trump +1.5% election day. I would argue Trump will do even better election day in FL than Romney did but this is just to show why Trump is in great position to take FL.

Result:

Trump wins FL by 0.5%

When you start sounding like StatesPoll, you know you're gone.

[ag]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

He's never even visited Sweden, I bet.

[Yank2133]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

AA hit the 13% threshold.

[Holmes]

Well, if there are long lines of older or middle-aged white people on CNN tomorrow it should be good news for Trump.

If not, good news for Hillary.

Depends on the time of day? People have work and class tomorrow, unfortunately.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

I generally thought of them as multi-racial people who grew up in a Romance-language speaking household so that you could include Brazilians.

I mean, are Spanish people Hispanic? Are Italians, Quebecios, and Portuguese Latino?

I use term Hispanics/Latinos = people from Latin America. And I think Latinos are much more quickly and easily to become a part of "western cultural society". One of the reason is that they want to, IMHO.

[Donerail]

Not sure why D's are so excited about FL:

2012 EV

Obama +3

2012 ED

Romney +2.1%

Result

Obama +0.9%

2016 EV

Clinton +1%

2016 ED

Lets cut the Romney number to 0.6% and say Trump +1.5% election day. I would argue Trump will do even better election day in FL than Romney did but this is just to show why Trump is in great position to take FL.

Result:

Trump wins FL by 0.5%

You're conflating "Democrat" with "Obama" here. The EV edge for Democrats in 2012 was built in part on turnout among Democrats who did not vote for Obama. Democrats won the early vote in Liberty County with over 70% of the vote, but the majority of those Democrats ain't voting like it. After accounting for registration shifts since 2012, Democrats are in a better position now than they were at this point last cycle.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/795653581206618113

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This makes me feel a little bit better.

[The Other Castro]

Dave Sund
‏@davesund
Douglas County #NE02
Returned Ballots/Early Votes 11/6:
D 33,994 46.1%
R 26,700 36.2%
I  12,555  17.0%
Total 73,753

[ApatheticAustrian]

how many votes are therw in NE2?

[Iosif]

So is this election more like Sweden or Austria?

I personally see more parallels to the 1973 West Bromwich by-election. Enoch Powell's refusal to back the Tory is Romney refusing to endorse Trump and the 16% the National Front got is like the Johnson/Stein protest vote.

I know this sounds like irrelevant nonsense but as a provincial little Englander I am incapable of understanding international elections without somehow relating it to my country. Foreign concepts are hard.

[Person Man]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

I generally thought of them as multi-racial people who grew up in a Romance-language speaking household so that you could include Brazilians.

I mean, are Spanish people Hispanic? Are Italians, Quebecios, and Portuguese Latino?

I use term Hispanics/Latinos = people from Latin America. And I think Latinos are much more quickly and easily to become a part of "western cultural society". One of the reason is that they want to, IMHO.

Maybe. I think the big thing for some populations is that it wasn't really their choice to be here or not and now they are here and have no other place to go. That is something that we all have to respect, IMHO.