absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nc is s curious place.

i predict...either trump is stronger in CO/VA/NC (all 3 states) than projected or in none of them.

[Maxwell]

nc is s curious place.

i predict...either trump is stronger in CO/VA/NC (all 3 states) than projected or in none of them.

Trump is going to lose Colorado and Virginia by quite a bit more than Romney lost them.

[win win]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

2012 -> 2016
Dem share 47 -> 41
Republican share unchanged
White share, 67 -> 71
Black share, 27 -> 22

Romney won the state in 2012 and Clinton needs to improve on 2012 to win here. But every thing suggests Trump is outperforming Romney. Oh and the majority of the votes have been cast already.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

2012 -> 2016
Dem share 47 -> 41
Republican share unchanged
White share, 67 -> 71
Black share, 27 -> 22

Romney won the state in 2012 and Clinton needs to improve on 2012 to win here. But every thing suggests Trump is outperforming Romney.

I'm tired of trying to explain it to you just to have you come back 12 hours later repeating the same drivel. I won't type any new answers to you on this anymore.

[win win]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

HRC is going to win NC. There you go.

2012 -> 2016
Dem share 47 -> 41
Republican share unchanged
White share, 67 -> 71
Black share, 27 -> 22

Romney won the state in 2012 and Clinton needs to improve on 2012 to win here. But every thing suggests Trump is outperforming Romney.

I'm tired of trying to explain it to you just to have you come back 12 hours later repeating the same drivel. I won't type any new answers to you on this anymore.

Even the Clinton News network says she is losing here. She must be down bigly.

[Virginiá]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

Hillary has been doing much better among white college educated voters (at the expense of WCWs), particularly white women grads, and part of the reason North Carolina has even become competitive is because of the rise of college grads in NC and the decline of working class whites. States with larger amounts of white college grads makes them stronger for Hillary, like Colorado/Virginia. It also makes her weaker in places like Ohio and Iowa.

So yes, the demographic numbers at face value are worrying, but knowing how she performs among certain white voters makes it perfectly possible for her to win the state.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

Hillary has been doing much better among white college educated voters, particularly white women grads, and part of the reason North Carolina has even become competitive is because of the rise of college grads in NC and the decline of working class whites. States with larger amounts of white college grads makes them stronger for Hillary, like Colorado/Virginia. It also makes her weaker in places like Ohio and Iowa.

So yes, the demographic numbers at face value are worrying, but knowing how she performs among certain white voters makes it perfectly possible for her to win the state.

You're wasting your time on this. Trust me, I've tried.

[Virginiá]

You're wasting your time on this. Trust me, I've tried.

Oh I know, but I thought if someone else was curious I could kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

[ApatheticAustrian]

as i said since days...

if trump wins then cause of mind-changing college-educated whites in swing states.

[win win]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Latino surge or not, look at this chart and tell me with a straight face hillary is going to win NC.

Hillary has been doing much better among white college educated voters (at the expense of WCWs), particularly white women grads, and part of the reason North Carolina has even become competitive is because of the rise of college grads in NC and the decline of working class whites. States with larger amounts of white college grads makes them stronger for Hillary, like Colorado/Virginia. It also makes her weaker in places like Ohio and Iowa.

So yes, the demographic numbers at face value are worrying, but knowing how she performs among certain white voters makes it perfectly possible for her to win the state.

It's a myth that educated whites are voting D this election.
Republicans haven't lost the educated white vote in forty years.
He is going to win both educated and uneducated whites.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Someone who goes by the name "RalstonSucks" has shtty #analysis.  Who knew.

Anyway
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

[win win]

Someone who goes by the name "RalstonSucks" has shtty #analysis.  Who knew.

Anyway
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

A false NY times article as usual. You take Romney's 2% lead here, add in a 2% drop in blacks, add a 6% drop in registered dem votes. She is down 10 already in early voting compared to 2012. Maybe she gains a few points because of demographic change, but she isn't winning here.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Someone who goes by the name "RalstonSucks" has shtty #analysis.  Who knew.

Anyway
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

A false NY times article as usual. You take Romney's 2% lead here, add in a 2% drop in blacks, add a 6% drop in registered dem votes. She is down 10 already in early voting compared to 2012. Maybe she gains a few points because of demographic change, but she isn't winning here.

That's some creative numbers you got there.

Were you born retarded, or did your retarded mother drop you on your head?

[ApatheticAustrian]

if we can project that a drop of registration means a loss of obama-voting dems, why exactly hasn't O cleaned romney's clock in NC in 2012?

[Yank2133]

if we can project that a drop of registration means a loss of obama-voting dems, why exactly hasn't O cleaned romney's clock in NC in 2012?

College educated whites.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

Major dump of EVs basically covering weekend ballots received, so our SoS site lags by one day.

1.3 Million Ballots received  (50.3% turnout) with 227k returned over the weekend alone, and Oregon looks to have a record turnout level with Monday and Tuesday numbers to be counted.

Breakdown (47D-35R-18I) and turnout levels of RV/EV (58.0D-58.1R-32.2I.)

Turnout gap continues to be an issue with Reps, although they had a significant improvement and now Dems only exceed Rep turnout percentages in 13/22 counties on my watch list.

Main story is a dramatic increase in Indy RV turnout from 17.3% on Fri to 32.2% as of Mon AM. Dems increased their turnout levels +10.2% RV/EV vs Republicans +13.3% RV/EV.

Good news for Reps is that they increased turnout levels beyond Dem turnout levels in 17/22 counties on my watch list.

Bad news: indy voter turnout is increasingly dramatically and heavily Dem in many counties  at a GE level.

Metro-PDX:

Multnomah County--- Dem turnout 57% vs Rep 55% to date.... (+122kD EV). Indie turnout is now 33% and typically breaks 2:1 (D) in Presidential Elections. Dem turnout from Friday to Monday actually exceeded Rep turnout, and look for the margins to be racked up further tomorrow.

Clackamas Co.---  Dem turnout (59%) vs Rep (58%) (+10kD EV). Reps are starting to finally catchup to Dem turnout levels in a key upper-income / rural "swing county" in statewide elections, that is actually traditionally competitive for moderate Reps in a Presidential Election. (TO RV/EV #s vs Friday numbers (+14.7%D- +17.3%R- +10.7%I).

Washington Co--- Turnout (56.7%D-54.5%R-33%I). (+28kD EV). Indies swing heavily (D) in this multi-ethnic suburban PDX county.... Still predicting this county might actually vote 2:1 Democrat for an historic number.

Yamhill Co--- Dems still hold a turnout lead in one of the historically Rep Counties here.. (Turnout RV/EV (55.7D- 52.1R-29.7I). These are insane numbers.... and representative of the rapidly growing Latino population (16% of the county) as well as a mix of educated Anglos from the college kids of McMinville, not to mention adults that have kids in public schools with Latino friends and neighbors. Still consider Yamhill to be a (D) flip for the first time in decades...


Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion Co--- (Turnout RV/EV (55D-56R-27I). Reps have now taken a narrow lead in EV numbers by 200 votes in a county where Dems lead by 600 RV. It is a traditional "swing county" in statewide elections, but also a county with an extremely large Latino population (26%) with many voters registered as Independent, and also as a predominately working-class county, voters tend to turn in their ballots only a day or two before Election Day. Definitely a county to watch on Election Day.

Polk Co.---- (Turnout RV/EV (56D-54R-30I). Dems are still holding onto a significant turnout lead in a traditionally Republican leaning county. Just like neighboring Yamhill Co, Republicans had a minimal turnout increase vs Dems. Again, this is a county where the "Latino Surge" will likely create a county flip, not necessarily as much as a result of the Latino population, but instead as a mix of swings in West Salem, combined with college students in Monmouth-Independence and educated Anglos, combined with working-class Anglos.

Linn Co---- (Turnout RV/LV) (58D-59R-32I). This *should* be natural Trump country as a heavily blue-collar county that is heavily "White Working Class" and lower rates of college education than many other parts of the state. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will win Albany (54-46) and keep it close in Lebanon (47-53) and lose the county by +12 based on heavily rural parts of the county. Personal disclosure, I have several grandkids going to Pre-K and Elementary Schools in Albany, as well as friends that worked in the freeze-dried food processing plants out there, and again this is an (18%) Latino county where all of our kids and grandkids go to the same schools and anti-Latino racism is becoming so 1980s...

Benton Co--- (Turnout RV/LV) (61D-56R-37I).

This is one of the most interesting numbers in all of Oregon. It is not only a heavily Millennial County, but additionally has one of the highest rates of college degrees of any counties in the state.

Obama actually lost support significantly between '08 and '12, and it appears that EV numbers will likely have much higher turnout levels than in '08 as a result of a Republican who is the worst match for college educated Anglos in history in an overwhelmingly Anglo County, although it does have one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans (6%) in Oregon outside of a few other places like Washington County.

Still thinking that this could be a 3:1 Clinton County once the final numbers are in considering that this is ground zero for Republican defections and a massive Indie swing (Typically 60-40D).

Lane Co--- Turnout still lagging well below statewide averages (57D-56R- 31I). Indies typically break 2:1 (D) here, but there is a potential Trump effect with disaffected ancestral WWC Dems in Timber country, and a county where to this day there are a significant amount of jobs directly and indirectly related to the logging industry. This will be an interesting county to watch on election night to see if Trump is able to outperform previous Republican nominees, especially in places like rural & small town Eastern, Southern, and Western Lane Co.

Coastal Oregon---

One would imagine this would be a part of the state that would swing hard towards Trump, since it is overwhelmingly WWC voters and an extremely high percentage of retirees.

Columbia Co--- Ground zero of the "Reagan Democrats" has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the state to date (44% ballots cast). Dems are actually holding a (46D-35R-19I) lead to date and still in terms of enthusiasm/turnout levels (52D-50R-27I). Not a good sign for Trump's chances in OR/WA and somehow bringing back WWC Union Voters into the Republican coalition. Current turnout numbers are (46D-35R-19I).

Clatsop Co--- RV/EV turnout levels (59D-55R-33I). Dems currently lead by +16% in EVs  Indie numbers are starting to move off the charts in a rural fishing-loggining-retiree county, but also home to a large chunk of Millennial voters attending Clatsop Community College.

Tillamook Co--- RV/EV Turnout (65D-62R-32I). This should be a classic Trump flip county with a ton of WWCs, as well as many working/middle class retirees. Went for Obama twice after going Republican for George W. twice.... One could make an argument that this is still a home of fictional Reagan Democrats, and demographically it should fit the Trump base. Current EV turnout (46D-38R-17I).

Lincoln Co--- RV/EV TO (68D-70R-39I). Home to one of the highest percentages of retirees on the Oregon Coast, but has become a heavily Democratic County over the years. Current EV (49D-31R-20I)  and the indies typically swing heavily (D) in a county home to one of the largest fishing centers of the Oregon Coast, as well as a major timber mill down the Bay in Toledo, and also Lincoln City that is heavily based upon tourism with a large 1st Nation Casino (Chinook Winds).

Southern Oregon

This should be ultimate Trump county, being not only heavily White Working Class, with an extremely small percentage of ethnic minorities, as well as a statewide Republican stronghold since the days of the Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Douglas Co---- RV/EV (62D-62*R-32I). Early returns (31D-52R-17I). Not anywhere close to a flip county, despite Dukakis winning 46% back in '88, but the weekend numbers show an interesting result where in an overwhelming Republican, older county, heavily Vietnam era vets, Dems are actually outpacing Rep turnout levels after the busiest day to date in terms of Oregon ballot returns.

Coos Co---RV/EV (62D-61R-33I). Early returns (7.9kD-8,3kR-3.7I). Still thinking Coos will stay (R) for Trump, it is interesting that in a New Deal solid Union county, Trump is not cleaning the clock, even with Republicans. I'm actually starting to wonder if Clinton will significantly outperform Obama/Kerry/Gore numbers in certain parts of Southern Oregon where Bill Clinton is still extremely popular on economic issues, as well as picking "Option Nine" when it came to the settlement of the Oregon Timber Wars, that provided all types of economic revitalization for depressed timber communities in Oregon.

Curry Co- RV/EV (67D-67*R-37I). EVs are (35D-46R-19I). Home to the greatest percentage of retirees in Oregon (32% 65+) but still a county with a relatively high rate of college-educated retirees, although the overall flavor of the county is still definitely blue.

Josephine Co--- RV/EV (67D-63R-31I). EVs are (31D-51R-18I). Am a bit confused on this one honestly, even though my wife grew up down here. One of the few counties where Dem turnout surged over the weekend (+16D- +9%R- +5% I) in what is essentially the stronghold of the Republican Party in Southern Oregon.... I'm assuming it's a vote gap and the numbers will readjust tomorrow, but if Republican turnout lags Dem turnout when we get to Election Day, it's a major sign that OR-02 CD is in jeopardy in 2018/2020.

Jackson Co--- RV/EV (56D-55R-28I). EVs are (41D-43R-17I). This is an Obama '08/Romney '12 county that I think will become a Clinton '16 County. It is a mixture of an overwhelmingly college/artist town (Ashland) thrown in with a mix of Middle-Class Cali retirees (Medford) that vote Republican and then throw in rural areas including heavily Republican farming/logging areas with some smaller areas of "getting back to the land", and then some heavily historically mill towns with a ton of old timers, and it is not a natural recipe for Clinton. Still, see my other comments about Southern Oregon counties above and either Trump's message doesn't really play down South, or there are a ton of Sanders/Trump cross-over votes, OR indies tend to swing a bit Rep in Douglas, Coos, Josephine and slightly (D) in Jackson.


Eastern/Central Oregon:

Deschutes Co--- RV/EV (66D-66R-40I). Reps narrowly take the lead on partisan turnout. Indies tend to be a bit flip-floppy in both National and statewide elections, but a ton of college educated Anglo retirees and Cali expats chilling out there.  Still on my Clinton '16 flip list.

Wasco Co--- RV/EV (58D-60R-30I). Total EV (42D-39R-19I).

Umatilla & Malheus- The question is not if they will flip, but what the final margins will be in two counties that (24% and 33% Latino respectively) and also about 10% Mormon.

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

PPP: 73% (514 EV)-- Clinton +11 (52-41)

Keating: 68% (414 EV)-- Clinton +4 (44-40)

Magellan: 64% (322 EV)-- Clinton +6 (46-40)

Denver Post: 54% (300 EV)-- Clinton +17 (53-36)

YouGov: 28% (279 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)


There's a lot more variance in Clinton's polled EV leads in Colorado (though note that Trump's share is always between 36-41), but I think it's reasonable to assume that Clinton has at least a 6-pt lead among the 77% of the voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote).

[Ozymandias]

IOWA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Emerson: 37% (262 EV)-- Clinton +23 (57-34)

Selzer: 34% (272 EV)-- Clinton +22 (53-31)

Loras: 26% (131 EV)-- Clinton +28 (57-29)

Quinnipiac: 21% (166 EV)-- Clinton +34 (61-27)


So even though Democratic early vote share is down vs. 2012, and Clinton is behind in most Iowa polls, she actually appears to have at least a 20% lead among the 40% of voters who have already voted  (based on total 2012 vote).

[Mallow]

Oregon Update:

Major dump of EVs basically covering weekend ballots received, so our SoS site lags by one day.

1.3 Million Ballots received  (50.3% turnout) with 227k returned over the weekend alone, and Oregon looks to have a record turnout level with Monday and Tuesday numbers to be counted.

Breakdown (47D-35R-18I) and turnout levels of RV/EV (58.0D-58.1R-32.2I.)

Turnout gap continues to be an issue with Reps, although they had a significant improvement and now Dems only exceed Rep turnout percentages in 13/22 counties on my watch list.

Main story is a dramatic increase in Indy RV turnout from 17.3% on Fri to 32.2% as of Mon AM. Dems increased their turnout levels +10.2% RV/EV vs Republicans +13.3% RV/EV.

Good news for Reps is that they increased turnout levels beyond Dem turnout levels in 17/22 counties on my watch list.

Bad news: indy voter turnout is increasingly dramatically and heavily Dem in many counties  at a GE level.

Metro-PDX:

Multnomah County--- Dem turnout 57% vs Rep 55% to date.... (+122kD EV). Indie turnout is now 33% and typically breaks 2:1 (D) in Presidential Elections. Dem turnout from Friday to Monday actually exceeded Rep turnout, and look for the margins to be racked up further tomorrow.

Clackamas Co.---  Dem turnout (59%) vs Rep (58%) (+10kD EV). Reps are starting to finally catchup to Dem turnout levels in a key upper-income / rural "swing county" in statewide elections, that is actually traditionally competitive for moderate Reps in a Presidential Election. (TO RV/EV #s vs Friday numbers (+14.7%D- +17.3%R- +10.7%I).

Washington Co--- Turnout (56.7%D-54.5%R-33%I). (+28kD EV). Indies swing heavily (D) in this multi-ethnic suburban PDX county.... Still predicting this county might actually vote 2:1 Democrat for an historic number.

Yamhill Co--- Dems still hold a turnout lead in one of the historically Rep Counties here.. (Turnout RV/EV (55.7D- 52.1R-29.7I). These are insane numbers.... and representative of the rapidly growing Latino population (16% of the county) as well as a mix of educated Anglos from the college kids of McMinville, not to mention adults that have kids in public schools with Latino friends and neighbors. Still consider Yamhill to be a (D) flip for the first time in decades...


Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion Co--- (Turnout RV/EV (55D-56R-27I). Reps have now taken a narrow lead in EV numbers by 200 votes in a county where Dems lead by 600 RV. It is a traditional "swing county" in statewide elections, but also a county with an extremely large Latino population (26%) with many voters registered as Independent, and also as a predominately working-class county, voters tend to turn in their ballots only a day or two before Election Day. Definitely a county to watch on Election Day.

Polk Co.---- (Turnout RV/EV (56D-54R-30I). Dems are still holding onto a significant turnout lead in a traditionally Republican leaning county. Just like neighboring Yamhill Co, Republicans had a minimal turnout increase vs Dems. Again, this is a county where the "Latino Surge" will likely create a county flip, not necessarily as much as a result of the Latino population, but instead as a mix of swings in West Salem, combined with college students in Monmouth-Independence and educated Anglos, combined with working-class Anglos.

Linn Co---- (Turnout RV/LV) (58D-59R-32I). This *should* be natural Trump country as a heavily blue-collar county that is heavily "White Working Class" and lower rates of college education than many other parts of the state. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will win Albany (54-46) and keep it close in Lebanon (47-53) and lose the county by +12 based on heavily rural parts of the county. Personal disclosure, I have several grandkids going to Pre-K and Elementary Schools in Albany, as well as friends that worked in the freeze-dried food processing plants out there, and again this is an (18%) Latino county where all of our kids and grandkids go to the same schools and anti-Latino racism is becoming so 1980s...

Benton Co--- (Turnout RV/LV) (61D-56R-37I).

This is one of the most interesting numbers in all of Oregon. It is not only a heavily Millennial County, but additionally has one of the highest rates of college degrees of any counties in the state.

Obama actually lost support significantly between '08 and '12, and it appears that EV numbers will likely have much higher turnout levels than in '08 as a result of a Republican who is the worst match for college educated Anglos in history in an overwhelmingly Anglo County, although it does have one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans (6%) in Oregon outside of a few other places like Washington County.

Still thinking that this could be a 3:1 Clinton County once the final numbers are in considering that this is ground zero for Republican defections and a massive Indie swing (Typically 60-40D).

Lane Co--- Turnout still lagging well below statewide averages (57D-56R- 31I). Indies typically break 2:1 (D) here, but there is a potential Trump effect with disaffected ancestral WWC Dems in Timber country, and a county where to this day there are a significant amount of jobs directly and indirectly related to the logging industry. This will be an interesting county to watch on election night to see if Trump is able to outperform previous Republican nominees, especially in places like rural & small town Eastern, Southern, and Western Lane Co.

Coastal Oregon---

One would imagine this would be a part of the state that would swing hard towards Trump, since it is overwhelmingly WWC voters and an extremely high percentage of retirees.

Columbia Co--- Ground zero of the "Reagan Democrats" has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the state to date (44% ballots cast). Dems are actually holding a (46D-35R-19I) lead to date and still in terms of enthusiasm/turnout levels (52D-50R-27I). Not a good sign for Trump's chances in OR/WA and somehow bringing back WWC Union Voters into the Republican coalition. Current turnout numbers are (46D-35R-19I).

Clatsop Co--- RV/EV turnout levels (59D-55R-33I). Dems currently lead by +16% in EVs  Indie numbers are starting to move off the charts in a rural fishing-loggining-retiree county, but also home to a large chunk of Millennial voters attending Clatsop Community College.

Tillamook Co--- RV/EV Turnout (65D-62R-32I). This should be a classic Trump flip county with a ton of WWCs, as well as many working/middle class retirees. Went for Obama twice after going Republican for George W. twice.... One could make an argument that this is still a home of fictional Reagan Democrats, and demographically it should fit the Trump base. Current EV turnout (46D-38R-17I).

Lincoln Co--- RV/EV TO (68D-70R-39I). Home to one of the highest percentages of retirees on the Oregon Coast, but has become a heavily Democratic County over the years. Current EV (49D-31R-20I)  and the indies typically swing heavily (D) in a county home to one of the largest fishing centers of the Oregon Coast, as well as a major timber mill down the Bay in Toledo, and also Lincoln City that is heavily based upon tourism with a large 1st Nation Casino (Chinook Winds).

Southern Oregon

This should be ultimate Trump county, being not only heavily White Working Class, with an extremely small percentage of ethnic minorities, as well as a statewide Republican stronghold since the days of the Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Douglas Co---- RV/EV (62D-62*R-32I). Early returns (31D-52R-17I). Not anywhere close to a flip county, despite Dukakis winning 46% back in '88, but the weekend numbers show an interesting result where in an overwhelming Republican, older county, heavily Vietnam era vets, Dems are actually outpacing Rep turnout levels after the busiest day to date in terms of Oregon ballot returns.

Coos Co---RV/EV (62D-61R-33I). Early returns (7.9kD-8,3kR-3.7I). Still thinking Coos will stay (R) for Trump, it is interesting that in a New Deal solid Union county, Trump is not cleaning the clock, even with Republicans. I'm actually starting to wonder if Clinton will significantly outperform Obama/Kerry/Gore numbers in certain parts of Southern Oregon where Bill Clinton is still extremely popular on economic issues, as well as picking "Option Nine" when it came to the settlement of the Oregon Timber Wars, that provided all types of economic revitalization for depressed timber communities in Oregon.

Curry Co- RV/EV (67D-67*R-37I). EVs are (35D-46R-19I). Home to the greatest percentage of retirees in Oregon (32% 65+) but still a county with a relatively high rate of college-educated retirees, although the overall flavor of the county is still definitely blue.

Josephine Co--- RV/EV (67D-63R-31I). EVs are (31D-51R-18I). Am a bit confused on this one honestly, even though my wife grew up down here. One of the few counties where Dem turnout surged over the weekend (+16D- +9%R- +5% I) in what is essentially the stronghold of the Republican Party in Southern Oregon.... I'm assuming it's a vote gap and the numbers will readjust tomorrow, but if Republican turnout lags Dem turnout when we get to Election Day, it's a major sign that OR-02 CD is in jeopardy in 2018/2020.

Jackson Co--- RV/EV (56D-55R-28I). EVs are (41D-43R-17I). This is an Obama '08/Romney '12 county that I think will become a Clinton '16 County. It is a mixture of an overwhelmingly college/artist town (Ashland) thrown in with a mix of Middle-Class Cali retirees (Medford) that vote Republican and then throw in rural areas including heavily Republican farming/logging areas with some smaller areas of "getting back to the land", and then some heavily historically mill towns with a ton of old timers, and it is not a natural recipe for Clinton. Still, see my other comments about Southern Oregon counties above and either Trump's message doesn't really play down South, or there are a ton of Sanders/Trump cross-over votes, OR indies tend to swing a bit Rep in Douglas, Coos, Josephine and slightly (D) in Jackson.


Eastern/Central Oregon:

Deschutes Co--- RV/EV (66D-66R-40I). Reps narrowly take the lead on partisan turnout. Indies tend to be a bit flip-floppy in both National and statewide elections, but a ton of college educated Anglo retirees and Cali expats chilling out there.  Still on my Clinton '16 flip list.

Wasco Co--- RV/EV (58D-60R-30I). Total EV (42D-39R-19I).

Umatilla & Malheur- The question is not if they will flip, but what the final margins will be in two counties that (24% and 33% Latino respectively) and also about 10% Mormon.

Still feeling pretty good about my Oregon county map:

[Dan the Roman]

Final update from Florida brings the total to over 6.5 million, and the Democratic lead to 91K. Ballots will still keep arriving but I don't think there will be any more updates before election day.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Person Man]

Final update from Florida brings the total to over 6.5 million, and the Democratic lead to 91K. Ballots will still keep arriving but I don't think there will be any more updates before election day.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

The partisan voting count should be close enough to be overcome by the crossover vote and Hispanic surge?

[Gustaf]

Hillsborough is doing live update: http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Hills/ElectionDayPartyTurnout.html

[Dr. Arch]

Hillsborough is doing live update: http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Hills/ElectionDayPartyTurnout.html

Thanks for that link.

It looks like Democrats won the early vote by about 28,000 in that swing county.  Will be interesting to see if they can hold onto the lead through today.  So far Republicans cutting it by 2,000.

Ds turn out more later in the day.

[psychprofessor]

Broward county also doing live updates...tremendous activity already - over 75K election day votes!

http://www.browardsoe.org/Voting-Methods/Early-Voting-Totals