absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Tender Branson]

Broward county also doing live updates...tremendous activity already - over 75K election day votes!

http://www.browardsoe.org/Voting-Methods/Early-Voting-Totals

Nice.

If the average keeps up, Broward will have 275K election day voters, for 905K in total.

[Gustaf]

Currently, turnout is up more in Broward than in Hillsborough. That's a good sign for Clinton no?

[Tender Branson]

Currently, turnout is up more in Broward than in Hillsborough. That's a good sign for Clinton no?

But not a whole lot:

Broward: 120% of 2012 turnout
Hillsborough: 119% of 2012 turnout

[Gustaf]

Currently, turnout is up more in Broward than in Hillsborough. That's a good sign for Clinton no?

But not a whole lot:

Broward: 120% of 2012 turnout
Hillsborough: 119% of 2012 turnout

Sure, but a quick glance indicates that the demographic difference is Broward exchanges a bunch of white people for black people. So this counters the black turnout collapse narrative a bit it'd seem.

[Donnie]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  3m3 minutes ago
As expected, Election Day turnout slightly more GOP than early vote (at least in Broward Co., FL):

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  3m3 minutes ago
As expected, Election Day turnout slightly more GOP than early vote (at least in Broward Co., FL):

Slightly? It is pretty big difference, but probably will change (like in Ohio? in 2012)

Rep share of Dem in VBM + EV = (48+86)/(105+239) = 39%
Rep share on election day         =  30/45 =                     66%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  3m3 minutes ago
As expected, Election Day turnout slightly more GOP than early vote (at least in Broward Co., FL):

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[HillOfANight]

Hope for Clinton in North Carolina. 21% of Republicans voted on election day, vs 17% of Democrats and 19% unaffiliated. Not a huge difference...

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/796052564466958336

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Hope for Clinton in North Carolina. 21% of Republicans voted on election day, vs 17% of Democrats and 19% unaffiliated. Not a huge difference...

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/796052564466958336

What do you mean not huge difference? It would better for Dems if it was as huge difference as possible? => bigger cannibalization...

[Panda Express]

Last Colorado Update


68% of ballots received


As of Monday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  753,052 (564,488)
Republicans  771,745 (693,983)
Independent 656,882 (491,591)

TOTAL 1,770,998 (2,215,258)

Dem turnout up 33%
Rethuglican turnout up 11%
Independent turnout up 44%

Total turnout up 25%

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update through 11/7/16.

Looking on track for record total voter turnout numbers, and even possibly a record total turnout percentage.

Total ballots returned 1,457,000 with the busiest return day (Election Day) not included:

(D)- 679k (46.6%)- (R) 499k (34.2%)- (I) 279k (19.1).

Republicans increased their party turnout level and total turnout now stands at 60.7%.

(D)- 68.8% turnout; (R) 69.7% turnout; (I) 40.9% turnout.

Key updates:

Democrats continue to hold a 1.5-2% turnout lead in the four counties of Metro-Portland (Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, and Yamhill, Appears to be a major enthusiasm gap for Republicans there. Indie turnout levels in Portland should be concerning for Republicans.

Republicans expanded the turnout gap in Marion and Linn counties, and took a narrow lead in heavily Democratic Lane County. Dem turnout numbers in Benton County are through the roof, in a heavily Democratic College community.

Democrats continue to lead in turnout in the Oregon Coastal counties, which does not appear to be a good sign for Trump's appeal to older WWC residents in a blue collar and retiree part of the state.

Southern Oregon numbers look good for Trump in heavily Republican Douglas and Josephine Counties, although Coos and Curry are looking like they might be closer than expected. Jackson County numbers are more mixed, and I expect to see a surge of same day voting from heavily Democratic Ashland (College town).

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Democratic turnout looking a bit depressed in Malheur and Umatilla, as is independent turnout. Although these are heavily Republican counties, they are on my radar because of the large Latino populations, as well as significant Mormon populations.

Deschutes County still looking like it will be close, and as a heavily college educated White county, this is a place where I would not be surprised to see flip this election (Although we might not know since it takes weeks to count the final votes in Oregon).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

Based upon the latest Oregon Secretary of State update, Oregon has a new record in total General Election Votes cast- 2,022,000 votes (The previous high was 1,845,251 in 2008) and an 11% increase over 2012 total turnout.

Although overall voter turnout percentages is lower than since any GE election since 1996, this is largely as a result of automatic DMV voter registration (With an opt out clause), so basically almost every Oregon adult US citizen that renews or requests a driver's license is automatically registered to vote....

Overall Voter registration surged from 2012 (2.2 Million) to almost (2.6 Million) as a direct result of the new law.

Turnout levels to date are at 78.9% of Registered Voters, which is a bit lower than I expected, but I had not adjusted for the impact of a ton of new registered voters  on the overall voter turnout percentages, although it does certainly account for at least 50% of the historic vote increase.

Meanwhile Statewide: Turnout levels by Party affilitation---

Democrats (86.6% turnout)- Republicans (88.1% turnout)- Independents (59.3% turnout).

Total vote turnout by the three major party registrations as a percentage of the total vote of these three registered categories ( I have not been including minor parties in these stats):

Democrats (45.2%)- Republicans (33.4%)- Independents (21.4%).

I'll probably shift over to the 2016 GE Results Page to go into more specifics of Oregon related election results and data, now that the GE is over, but still seemed relevant to post turnout related items on this thread.

Haven't looked at California yet, but that could be an interesting study in EV and turnout levels as well....

[amdcpus]

Oregon Update:

Based upon the latest Oregon Secretary of State update, Oregon has a new record in total General Election Votes cast- 2,022,000 votes (The previous high was 1,845,251 in 2008) and an 11% increase over 2012 total turnout.

Although overall voter turnout percentages is lower than since any GE election since 1996, this is largely as a result of automatic DMV voter registration (With an opt out clause), so basically almost every Oregon adult US citizen that renews or requests a driver's license is automatically registered to vote....

Overall Voter registration surged from 2012 (2.2 Million) to almost (2.6 Million) as a direct result of the new law.

Turnout levels to date are at 78.9% of Registered Voters, which is a bit lower than I expected, but I had not adjusted for the impact of a ton of new registered voters  on the overall voter turnout percentages, although it does certainly account for at least 50% of the historic vote increase.

Meanwhile Statewide: Turnout levels by Party affilitation---

Democrats (86.6% turnout)- Republicans (88.1% turnout)- Independents (59.3% turnout).

Total vote turnout by the three major party registrations as a percentage of the total vote of these three registered categories ( I have not been including minor parties in these stats):

Democrats (45.2%)- Republicans (33.4%)- Independents (21.4%).

I'll probably shift over to the 2016 GE Results Page to go into more specifics of Oregon related election results and data, now that the GE is over, but still seemed relevant to post turnout related items on this thread.

Haven't looked at California yet, but that could be an interesting study in EV and turnout levels as well....

You should. I enjoyed reading your posts and comparing your predictions. Seems Trump strongly exceeded expectations in the rural areas.