absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

I'm skeptical that NC will be a 6-point win for Hillary (unless the polls are off and we have a landslide on our hands), but the early vote is looking good so far.

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What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...

Ground game is important, and there are enormous efforts to turn out new and/or "unlikely" voters in these states. It might not be enough to flip them, but if there was one thing to take away from the Obama elections, it was that organization matters.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

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Unless the early voting numbers are missing some kind of huge Trump surge (or he's taking a large number of Democratic voters or winning NPAs by a wide margin), it looks like Hillary's in very good shape in NV, CO, and WI, meaning that unless Trump can pull a Hail Mary in PA on election day, he's cooked.

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Florida has to be getting close to exceeding its 2012 numbers, by this point.

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Dang, if those numbers are accurate, could Polk flip?

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If people think that NV isn't gone for Trump, but that IA is gone for Hillary, they're clearly choosing to ignore what the EV so far is implying.

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If Trump loses Florida, he's completely cooked, so I'm liking those EV numbers so far.

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we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

Fantastic news! Republicans can't continue to win elections by suppressing the vote!

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No, Ralston is right on the money. The fact that Trump has no ground game or appeal to voters who aren't uneducated white men is coming through very clearly in the early NV results.

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(ignore the "Democratic caucuses" part)

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You are in for a very rough election night if you think Trump has states like NC in the bag.

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Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Are those statewide statistics?

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We won't be getting Clark numbers tonight, per Ralston. Wonder if we'll get anything from Washoe.

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Wow, it's like Ralston read my mind.

Funny, I was told that Washoe was Trump territory and NV was a Toss-Up because muh WCWs. Trump is going to get cooked in NV.

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I love how Trumpsters are assuming that NC is good for Trump because the party ID numbers look slightly better for Republicans than they did in 2012, but then don't bother comparing CO's current numbers to 2012, and just say that Republicans ahead = good for Trump. Cherry picking is fun, wheeeeee!

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There might be a chance, a Jim Carrey chance, that is, that Ralston is wrong. However, I don't think there's any better source on Nevada than him. Not surprised to see a whiny Trump supporter say that Ralston has to be wrong and sucks (because he doesn't like the conclusion Ralston reached while looking at DATA, REAL DATA.) Barring a massive surprise, Hillary will win Nevada easily, and I'll be accepting some accolades on November 9th.

Anyway, let's not let a salty Trumpster derail a thread with his #analysis. Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

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Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

Thanks.

Looks like the Democratic advantage is remaining steady at a bit over 40,000. That probably means Iowa is set to be very close.

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And why do you assume that unaffiliated voters will break for Trump, and that there won't be a decent number of R voters who don't vote for Trump? You can cherry-pick, and make assumptions which are likely erroneous until the cows come home (oops, sorry, I forgot that this phrase apparently isn't PC enough.) The data strongly suggests that Hillary is heavily favored in Nevada, and Trump winning it is less likely than Hillary winning it by double digits.

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If Duval ends up being that tight, it's probably lights out for Trump in Florida.

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https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795001664340107264

More early votes so far in Florida than total votes in Pennsylvania in 2012.

So much of the damage to Trump is already done in Florida. Nighty night, Donny.

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Democrats are leading the in-person voting in Duval by over 7,000. Republicans have almost the exact same margin in VbM.

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daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

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Meanwhile, Democrats now lead Duval by over 800 votes. Should crack 1,000 today.

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Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472