absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[swf541]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Go away troll.

I'm a troll becuz wrote the facts? amazing red avatar!

I feel sad for the country knowing that some people believe the crap you post.

100% agreed

[swf541]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Statespoll, Thank you for your contributions!! All we ever see is Liberals posting on this forum and posting whatever someone is stating in their favor. They tell you to go away because your posting facts they dont like, I LOVE IT. Please keep me up to date with these EV states! I appreciate your efforts!

thx you! you are welcome.

in here red avatars are biased too much.
Early Voting in North Carolina, Black voter turnouts decreased by about 20~23%.
But Red Avatars are keep saying NC=lean Hillary lol

and i see your analysis is still moronic as ever and doesnt remotely include age, unaffiliated or education potential swings.

[swf541]

Jeremy Bird ‏@jeremybird 24m24 minutes ago
More NC EV: Over past 3 days, 110K African Americans have voted in-person. 10% more than equivalent period in '12. #TurnNCBlue

So AA turnout is increasing....

[swf541]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

Its definitely not great in either, at the same time it isnt great for Trump.  And AA turnout is going up quite quickly with more voting places open. Its qutie clear a large chunk (though not all) of the turnout issue is the GOP slimy neo Jim Crow crackdown on voting

[swf541]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

[swf541]

Last week, I'd agree as of today I am much more conflicted as it seems to be increasing quite a bit atm. Will probably be somewhat lower but a major decline i do not think will occur as some on here are predicting.

[swf541]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

The nc shift has little to do with african americans but is connected to the educated white swing and swing among white females

[swf541]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

[swf541]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

Yea, do we have any new early voter data on Arizona?  I havent seen much discussion on it lately

[swf541]

I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.

The cows joke isnt an insult to rural people, you offend way too easily if you found that of all things to be offensive.

[swf541]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

Wouldnt call it safe trump but IA is lean trump ohio will be very close reverse of florida with a small lean r, Arizona i think will go Trump.

[swf541]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

I dont see PA, MI seems likelier than PA imo.

On a similar note, anyone think that in PA-09 Halvorson may unseat Shuster its getting extremely nasty on the ground?

[swf541]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.

what about YouGov Elecion Model?
11/3/2016
Wisconsin: Hillary 46.9% | TRUMP 45.0% | Johnson 3.3% | Stein 2.6%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Wisconsin

I think Michigan is the state Trump has the best chance of stealing from the D's over WI, Minn and PA.

Let's not forget the "polls" all had clinton beating sanders in the primary by 20+ points some even had 30+....she lost by a point. Michigan is def in play.

Wouldnt call it in play, but can see it being a completely random or bizarre result

[swf541]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

I agree

[swf541]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

[swf541]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

[swf541]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

!!!!

That sounds really bad for the GOP no?  If NPA is that close to GOP voters?

If (Iiiffffff) UFAs are doing what we think they are, Orange could be a real killing with those numbers.

Had similar thoughts, tuesday is going to be really interesting in the county maps.

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Huh, so he needs to outperform Romney then not just match his performance....

[swf541]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Yes, that was my initial point

[swf541]

I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

[swf541]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

That looks pretty great

[swf541]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

I actually agree, I dont think Florida is anything better than lean D.

[swf541]

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

this site claims pubs have a lead of about 2k votes since this afternoon ...

http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-ballots-returned-reports/?utm_content=buffer26329&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

but i am not sure if this is reliable information.

Well considering its Magellan.... I dont know it seems like it could be misleading