absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Crumpets]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

You have to declare the colour of your skin to register to vote? Stunning, in 2016.

There's nothing nefarious about it, and I say that as someone who vigorously opposes racial profiling. Consider France's recent law to prevent keeping track of racial statistics pertaining to crime. All evidence points to increased bias against minorities since the bill was passed as law enforcement now feels less incentive to stop/arrest/charge/convict people in a racially blind way.

In the US, especially in the South, it is imperative to know the racial statistics of who is voting to ensure congressional delegations don't under-represent minorities (under the Voting Rights Act) and that minority neighborhoods get the same number/quality of polling stations as white neighborhoods. Of course, this is all de jure. De facto, minority voters assuredly get the short end of the stick when it comes to election day.

[Crumpets]

Here's a map of the total vote so far (Atlas color scale):



A couple observations:

- The upper Midwest has returned relatively few ballots, meaning if Trump has a late surge, this might be a good place for him, along with PA and NH.

- States like Arizona will have their October vote be roughly half of their total vote, a time when Clinton was doing pretty darn well. This means if Trump wants to even get the numbers he's currently polling at, they average November vote for him will have to be twice as favorable to him compared to October numbers. So, for example, if Clinton was up by 1 in Arizona on average in October and Trump is currently up 4, he has to hope to be up 9 by the end of the election to average +4 overall. And it really doesn't matter if the early vote or the election-day vote skews left or right compared to the populace as a whole as long as there's a steady stream of swing voters throughout the voting process.

[Crumpets]

Mark Murray and Dave Wasserman discuss the possibility of Election Day EV cannibalization by Republicans in Florida:

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Top FL early vote increases vs. '12 *totals:*
1. Lee (R) +42%
2. Manatee (R) +40%
3. Sumter (R) +22%
4. Baker (R) +21%
5. Hernando (R) +15%

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
In Sumter, FL (The Villages), early ballots cast so far are already at 88% of the *entire* number of votes cast there in 2012 (67% Romney).

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Some of that is pop growth. But for comparison, FL's statewide early ballots at 52% of '12 total votes cast. Miami-Dade at 57%, Leon 39%.

Mark Murray‏ @mmurraypolitics Mark Murray Retweeted Dave Wasserman
With those kinds of increases from places like The Villages (Sumter), how much GOP vote will be left on Elex Day?

I've said this a couple of times, but I don't think Democrats should worry too much about cannibalizing election day vote in states like FL, NC, and OH. They can't afford to have the hideous lines from 2012 if they want turnout to be as high as they're hoping.

[Crumpets]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

I think Clinton is up 2-3 but it is still winnable for the Republicans

With the number of votes that have been cast already, Trump needs to take a clear lead statewide, like right now if he wants to win in the end.

[Crumpets]

oh my...

Sam SteinVerified account
‏@samsteinhp
@rebeccagberg says trump paid a firm $750k to come in and help with door knocking in Florida because he lacked ground game there

Heck, if that's all that costs, Hillary should buy out every firm that does this across the country from now until election day.

[Crumpets]

This could be a decisive number re: Puerto Rican turnout

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794018888581312512

Does anybody have a rough estimate of what that translates to in raw votes?

[Crumpets]

On Upshot's NC vote tracker, they have over half the total vote as in, and Hillary winning already-submitted votes by 10. That means Trump has to win remaining votes by at least 10 to carry the state. Not to mention 4 more days of early voting at current support numbers (roughly 50/50, if we're being conservative). That means Trump would have to win the election day vote pretty overwhelmingly unless things shift his way in the state ight now. So, even if that Trump +7 poll was accurate and that's how people vote for the remainder of the election, he'd still lose the state overall.

Somebody please double-check my math, because it sounds a bit Karl Rovey when I read it back to myself.

[Crumpets]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

[Crumpets]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/794334686206169093

'splain

Higher turnout in Democratic areas pretty much always leads to a greater Democratic advantage. Greater turnout in Republican areas could go either way. Not to mention the fact that Fairfax has many more voters than any other county and can outweigh any other changes.

[Crumpets]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Cool! I did some math, assuming no third parties, and that with that scenario, if Clinton is

up 5 (52-47), she can win with 45% of election day.
Up 10, win with 38%.
Up 15, win with 34%.

She's up 17 in early voting per TargetSmart, 9 per InsiderAdvantage, 6 per Quinnipiac. It seems the early vote keeps getting more diverse, so I assume the lead is growing.

Do you know what the election day vote was in 2012?

[Crumpets]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

Yes, but in other states, there are 5+ hour lines, of course predominantly in minority areas and around universities.

[Crumpets]

@Taniel
Early voting in Durham, NC grew by 17% from 2012 to 2016. It had grown by 4% from '08/'12. County is 40% black; 76% Obama. h/t @LaurenHorsch

@Taniel
Same story in Wake Co (Raleigh, another part of NC's Triangle): early turnout grew 16% from 2012 to 2016. Had grown 4% from 2008 to 2012.

‏@Taniel
And finally: in Orange County (Chapel Hill, the 3rd part of NC's Triangle), early voting turnout grew by 19% from 2012 to 2016.

Makes sense after the NC State Government made it clear they had no interest whatsoever in students voting on election day.

[Crumpets]

I'm still hopeful about NC.

Most polls consistently show her the slight favorite to win NC.
Mook is going after low propensity voters.
Black voters are down but unaffiliated, educated whites will break for her.

Me as well. I have to imagine that the kind of low-propensity white voters that are showing up aren't overwhelmingly pro-Trump enough to counter the educated whites and Latinos who are turning out for Hillary.

[Crumpets]

Using the data from this website, here's a map of Florida early vote turnout compared to 2012 final vote. This doesn't show changes from today - it's basically from this morning.

The most striking thing to me is the relatively low turnout of the Gulf Coast, particularly Pinellas County, which as of this morning was only at 14.6% of total 2012 turnout.

[Crumpets]

Using the data from this website, here's a map of Florida early vote turnout compared to 2012 final vote. This doesn't show changes from today - it's basically from this morning.

The most striking thing to me is the relatively low turnout of the Gulf Coast, particularly Pinellas County, which as of this morning was only at 14.6% of total 2012 turnout.

I presume this is only early vote and not vote-by-mail as well?

Yes, I think so.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.

[Crumpets]

Wisconsin looks pretty good. Can't find too much either way from the Ohio map.

[Crumpets]

Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even