absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Classic Conservative]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

It's more like R+ 17,456

[Classic Conservative]

any links?

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Classic Conservative]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

I know about the referendum, I was just wondering if it was just due to that or if the rules have been loosened.

It used to only be, excuse-required absentee. Now anybody can vote without a reason. That is why it is 262% of 2012

[Classic Conservative]

Great registration numbers, but the early voting is almost over and it doesn't look great.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
2016 early vote (2014 early vote since I couldn't find 2012)

White 60.8% (58.1%)
Black 27.7% (30.8%)
Hispanic 1.3% (0.5%)
Other 2% (1%)
Unknown 8.1% (9.6%)

I'm still waiting to see what Election Day looks like before rendering any verdicts. 2014 had phenomenal black early voter turnout in GA - to the extent that if it had tracked with election day and early vote in previous years, it would have been something like a 32% black electorate - but those numbers absolutely collapsed in the Election Day vote.

I'm increasingly thinking that early voting numbers are serving as indicators for enthusiasm. We've known for a long time that black voters are nowhere nearly as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 & 2012, but enthusiasm doesn't necessarily matter among reliable voters. I've seen reports that there are a substantial number of likely black voters nationally who have yet to cast ballots - likely being based off of pre-2008 participation. We may just be seeing a return to the mean in terms of voting patterns; that the cannibalization of previous ED vote is reverting back to normal among black voters who a) no longer are voting early because the enthusiasm for Obama is no longer applicable and b) the particulars of this election/the candidates. It really makes no sense for the black share of the electorate to be less than it was in 2010 & 2014, two midterm years where Obama was also not on the ballot.

Also, I'm wondering how they've sourced the 2014 data by race. I had access in '14 to the statewide Democratic voter file, and it showed a substantially larger black electorate in early voting (something like 34% at the end of early voting if I recall correctly).

I wonder if the GA Democrats, had the early voting electorate at 34% black because of the 'unknown'. That could be plausible.

[Classic Conservative]

Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  8m8 minutes ago Denver, CO
One thing I've been watching carefully in CO early vote: Age. Young CO voters cast ballots late. A lot still to come #copolitics



Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  9m9 minutes ago Denver, CO
This is from the invaluable @MagellanStrat breakdown of Colorado early votes

Who knows, if they will vote though. My cousin goes UC Boulder for graduate school and she was a Bernie fan but her and her boyfriend aren't voting this year, because Bernie isn't on the ballot.

[Classic Conservative]

Malik Obama has voted:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ObamaMalik/status/794192790125248512

[Classic Conservative]

Our great friend SouthernGothic a registered GA voter, voted for Trump/Pence today!

[Classic Conservative]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

[Classic Conservative]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

No, he has always been consistent.

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Poll? Or early voting so far?

Early voting

[Classic Conservative]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

[Classic Conservative]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568