absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Mallow]

What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...

Huh? The people talking about AZ, at least, are basing it on more than just a single (outlier) poll.

[Mallow]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

 and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

Not to mention voting against one of the most openly misogynistic (amongst so many other "isms") candidates in recent memory.

[Mallow]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

The numbers you reference ("8%" vs. "3.5%") are 1. off--it's 7.19% to 3.49%, you can't round one up to 8% and the other to 3.5%, that makes no sense (EDIT: Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying... I don't understand what you mean by shaving a point off week 1 in 2012 when you're also mentioning "erasing" a lead from 2012 to 2016, which doesn't make sense to me)--2. they don't include Absentee/Mail-In ballots which, when added in, change the leads to 5.6% for 2012 (42.2% and 36.6%) and 3.3% for 2016 (40.1% and 36.8%)--3. they don't include today's results, so cannot be compared directly to 2012--and 4. and most importantly, a drop from 2012 by even the 4.5% you quote, let alone the more realistic 2.3% including all the data, wouldn't be enough to flip NV, which was won by Obama with a margin of 6.7% in 2012. So... I don't understand your point.

[Mallow]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

The numbers you reference ("8%" vs. "3.5%") are 1. off--it's 7.19% to 3.49%, you can't round one up to 8% and the other to 3.5%, that makes no sense (EDIT: Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're saying... I don't understand what you mean by shaving a point off week 1 in 2012 when you're also mentioning "erasing" a lead from 2012 to 2016, which doesn't make sense to me)--2. they don't include Absentee/Mail-In ballots which, when added in, change the leads to 5.6% for 2012 (42.2% and 36.6%) and 3.3% for 2016 (40.1% and 36.8%)--3. they don't include today's results, so cannot be compared directly to 2012--and 4. and most importantly, a drop from 2012 by even the 4.5% you quote, let alone the more realistic 2.3% including all the data, wouldn't be enough to flip NV, which was won by Obama with a margin of 6.7% in 2012. So... I don't understand your point.

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

They updated the official numbers at NV SOS:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics

So now with (most) of week 2's final day's totals in, the week 2 numbers are as follows (including absent/mailing)...
2012: D+5.6% ( 42.2/36.6/21.2 )
2016: D+5.0% ( 40.6/35.6/23.8 ) [2016 not including yesterday was only D+3.3%!]

The Democrats' margin lead is only 0.6% lower in week 2 of this week than it was in the same week in 2012. And in 2012, Obama won Nevada by 6.7%. It's going to take a lot more than a 0.6% improvement amongst Republicans to make up that difference. Would require a huge shift in the preference of the "Other" voters.

[Mallow]

So now with (most) of week 2's final day's totals in, the week 2 numbers are as follows (including absent/mailing)...
2012: D+5.6% ( 42.2/36.6/21.2 )
2016: D+5.0% ( 40.6/35.6/23.8 ) [2016 not including yesterday was only D+3.3%!]

The Democrats' margin lead is only 0.6% lower in week 2 of this week than it was in the same week in 2012. And in 2012, Obama won Nevada by 6.7%. It's going to take a lot more than a 0.6% improvement amongst Republicans to make up that difference. Would require a huge shift in the preference of the "Other" voters.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501
If we include week 1 + week 2 numbers, we get the following...
2012 D/R/O: 308,828/260,066/135,622 for a D margin of +6.9% (final margin was Obama +6.7%)
2016 D/R/O: 323,466/277,417/166,532 for a D margin of +6.1%

One could argue that R's have improved over 2012, but the improvement is marginal at best. These are still very bad numbers for Trump.

[Mallow]

So now with (most) of week 2's final day's totals in, the week 2 numbers are as follows (including absent/mailing)...
2012: D+5.6% ( 42.2/36.6/21.2 )
2016: D+5.0% ( 40.6/35.6/23.8 ) [2016 not including yesterday was only D+3.3%!]

The Democrats' margin lead is only 0.6% lower in week 2 of this week than it was in the same week in 2012. And in 2012, Obama won Nevada by 6.7%. It's going to take a lot more than a 0.6% improvement amongst Republicans to make up that difference. Would require a huge shift in the preference of the "Other" voters.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501
If we include week 1 + week 2 numbers, we get the following...
2012 D/R/O: 308,828/260,066/135,622 for a D margin of +6.9% (final margin was Obama +6.7%)
2016 D/R/O: 323,466/277,417/166,532 for a D margin of +6.1%

One could argue that R's have improved over 2012, but the improvement is marginal at best. These are still very bad numbers for Trump.

That of course assumes that the O voters aren't breaking more one way than the other.

For sure, and that seems to be the R's only hope at this time. It would take a mighty big shift in Other voters' preferences, though (was something like Obama+3 for Others in 2012, whereas from the current early voting numbers, Others would need to break something like Trump+28 in 2016 to tie it up)

[Mallow]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

This narrative is based on your incorrect assumption that Romney won the Others' category by 7 in 2012, so a Trump +10 with Others wouldn't be surprising. That is simply not true. You're comparing apples to oranges. Independent self-identification is not equivalent to Other party registration in NV.

If we assume D's voted for Obama in 2012 at about an equal rate as R's voted for Romney, the Others category would actually have voted Obama in NV in 2012, not Romney by 7. Even with your extremely low Democratic Clinton support, Trump winning Others by 40/50 when Romney lost them would be an extreme swing.

For reference, the numbers in 2012 were as follows...
Total votes: 1,016,664
D: 430,186 (42.3%)
R: 370,265 (36.4%)
O: 216,213 (21.3%)

Obama got 531,373 votes, and Romney got 463,567 votes. If we assume something like 90/8/2 for crossover votes of each party (Romney/Obama/Other for R's or Obama/Romney/Other for D's), we get 416,789 votes for Obama from D's and R's, and 367,654 votes for Romney from D's and R's, leaving Others at 114,584 for Obama (53% of Others' votes), and 95,913 for Romney (44% of Others' votes). Are Others really going to swing from something like Obama+9 to Trump+10?


EDIT: If you change the math enough to make it to where Others DID vote for Romney in 2012 (i.e. significantly reduce either or both of the Republican or Democratic margins for Romney, say R 84/18/2) then all you're doing is changing which demographic has to swing hugely (now instead of Others having to swing 20 points towards Trump, they only have to swing 10 points, but Republicans have to swing almost 10 points towards Trump, too!).

[Mallow]

270 To Win has great shading. For what it's worth, here's mine...

Mine is pretty damn close to yours:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Le16A

[Mallow]

Based on these numbers from all states, it looks like overall turnout will likely be the same as 2012 (+/- 3%).

But Ljube told me it's a "low turnout election," so Trump should win easily.

[Mallow]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

[Mallow]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

There are substantial increases in the early turnout of ultra-GOP suburbs like Collin as well. But Travis is notable.

Ya, I guess my point was that numbers are up all around, but El Paso doesn't strike me as underperforming compared to 2012.

[Mallow]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Would you mind providing the source for this? The only one I have is the one below and it's not showing that yet and I'd like to check on my county - St. Johns.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2016-General-Voter-Turnout

Looks like it's up to a 3,500 advantage now, less than an hour later.

[Mallow]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Would you mind providing the source for this? The only one I have is the one below and it's not showing that yet and I'd like to check on my county - St. Johns.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2016-General-Voter-Turnout

Looks like it's up to a 3,500 advantage now, less than an hour later.

You're right! It keeps growing.

There were about 410,000 total votes in Duval County in 2012 (Romney had about 212,000 votes, Obama had about 197,000 votes). So far, Duval County has over 295,000 votes in this year. Even accounting for some growth/higher turnout, that's still over 50% of the total vote in already... probably closer to 70%.

[Mallow]

Democrats just need about 70 more votes in Duval to have a 4k advantage.

Aaaaand there we have it...
REP: 122,267
DEM: 126,275

And the Democratic advantage in Duval just hit 4k!

You beat me to it! I'm guessing your F5 key is getting as much of a workout as mine today

[Mallow]

Nothing say Atlas poster more than refreshing the Duval election board website every 10 minutes on a Sunday afternoon.

Bahaha, if only my friends new the levels of my nerditude. Oh wait, they do

[Mallow]

Oregon Update:

Major dump of EVs basically covering weekend ballots received, so our SoS site lags by one day.

1.3 Million Ballots received  (50.3% turnout) with 227k returned over the weekend alone, and Oregon looks to have a record turnout level with Monday and Tuesday numbers to be counted.

Breakdown (47D-35R-18I) and turnout levels of RV/EV (58.0D-58.1R-32.2I.)

Turnout gap continues to be an issue with Reps, although they had a significant improvement and now Dems only exceed Rep turnout percentages in 13/22 counties on my watch list.

Main story is a dramatic increase in Indy RV turnout from 17.3% on Fri to 32.2% as of Mon AM. Dems increased their turnout levels +10.2% RV/EV vs Republicans +13.3% RV/EV.

Good news for Reps is that they increased turnout levels beyond Dem turnout levels in 17/22 counties on my watch list.

Bad news: indy voter turnout is increasingly dramatically and heavily Dem in many counties  at a GE level.

Metro-PDX:

Multnomah County--- Dem turnout 57% vs Rep 55% to date.... (+122kD EV). Indie turnout is now 33% and typically breaks 2:1 (D) in Presidential Elections. Dem turnout from Friday to Monday actually exceeded Rep turnout, and look for the margins to be racked up further tomorrow.

Clackamas Co.---  Dem turnout (59%) vs Rep (58%) (+10kD EV). Reps are starting to finally catchup to Dem turnout levels in a key upper-income / rural "swing county" in statewide elections, that is actually traditionally competitive for moderate Reps in a Presidential Election. (TO RV/EV #s vs Friday numbers (+14.7%D- +17.3%R- +10.7%I).

Washington Co--- Turnout (56.7%D-54.5%R-33%I). (+28kD EV). Indies swing heavily (D) in this multi-ethnic suburban PDX county.... Still predicting this county might actually vote 2:1 Democrat for an historic number.

Yamhill Co--- Dems still hold a turnout lead in one of the historically Rep Counties here.. (Turnout RV/EV (55.7D- 52.1R-29.7I). These are insane numbers.... and representative of the rapidly growing Latino population (16% of the county) as well as a mix of educated Anglos from the college kids of McMinville, not to mention adults that have kids in public schools with Latino friends and neighbors. Still consider Yamhill to be a (D) flip for the first time in decades...


Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion Co--- (Turnout RV/EV (55D-56R-27I). Reps have now taken a narrow lead in EV numbers by 200 votes in a county where Dems lead by 600 RV. It is a traditional "swing county" in statewide elections, but also a county with an extremely large Latino population (26%) with many voters registered as Independent, and also as a predominately working-class county, voters tend to turn in their ballots only a day or two before Election Day. Definitely a county to watch on Election Day.

Polk Co.---- (Turnout RV/EV (56D-54R-30I). Dems are still holding onto a significant turnout lead in a traditionally Republican leaning county. Just like neighboring Yamhill Co, Republicans had a minimal turnout increase vs Dems. Again, this is a county where the "Latino Surge" will likely create a county flip, not necessarily as much as a result of the Latino population, but instead as a mix of swings in West Salem, combined with college students in Monmouth-Independence and educated Anglos, combined with working-class Anglos.

Linn Co---- (Turnout RV/LV) (58D-59R-32I). This *should* be natural Trump country as a heavily blue-collar county that is heavily "White Working Class" and lower rates of college education than many other parts of the state. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will win Albany (54-46) and keep it close in Lebanon (47-53) and lose the county by +12 based on heavily rural parts of the county. Personal disclosure, I have several grandkids going to Pre-K and Elementary Schools in Albany, as well as friends that worked in the freeze-dried food processing plants out there, and again this is an (18%) Latino county where all of our kids and grandkids go to the same schools and anti-Latino racism is becoming so 1980s...

Benton Co--- (Turnout RV/LV) (61D-56R-37I).

This is one of the most interesting numbers in all of Oregon. It is not only a heavily Millennial County, but additionally has one of the highest rates of college degrees of any counties in the state.

Obama actually lost support significantly between '08 and '12, and it appears that EV numbers will likely have much higher turnout levels than in '08 as a result of a Republican who is the worst match for college educated Anglos in history in an overwhelmingly Anglo County, although it does have one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans (6%) in Oregon outside of a few other places like Washington County.

Still thinking that this could be a 3:1 Clinton County once the final numbers are in considering that this is ground zero for Republican defections and a massive Indie swing (Typically 60-40D).

Lane Co--- Turnout still lagging well below statewide averages (57D-56R- 31I). Indies typically break 2:1 (D) here, but there is a potential Trump effect with disaffected ancestral WWC Dems in Timber country, and a county where to this day there are a significant amount of jobs directly and indirectly related to the logging industry. This will be an interesting county to watch on election night to see if Trump is able to outperform previous Republican nominees, especially in places like rural & small town Eastern, Southern, and Western Lane Co.

Coastal Oregon---

One would imagine this would be a part of the state that would swing hard towards Trump, since it is overwhelmingly WWC voters and an extremely high percentage of retirees.

Columbia Co--- Ground zero of the "Reagan Democrats" has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the state to date (44% ballots cast). Dems are actually holding a (46D-35R-19I) lead to date and still in terms of enthusiasm/turnout levels (52D-50R-27I). Not a good sign for Trump's chances in OR/WA and somehow bringing back WWC Union Voters into the Republican coalition. Current turnout numbers are (46D-35R-19I).

Clatsop Co--- RV/EV turnout levels (59D-55R-33I). Dems currently lead by +16% in EVs  Indie numbers are starting to move off the charts in a rural fishing-loggining-retiree county, but also home to a large chunk of Millennial voters attending Clatsop Community College.

Tillamook Co--- RV/EV Turnout (65D-62R-32I). This should be a classic Trump flip county with a ton of WWCs, as well as many working/middle class retirees. Went for Obama twice after going Republican for George W. twice.... One could make an argument that this is still a home of fictional Reagan Democrats, and demographically it should fit the Trump base. Current EV turnout (46D-38R-17I).

Lincoln Co--- RV/EV TO (68D-70R-39I). Home to one of the highest percentages of retirees on the Oregon Coast, but has become a heavily Democratic County over the years. Current EV (49D-31R-20I)  and the indies typically swing heavily (D) in a county home to one of the largest fishing centers of the Oregon Coast, as well as a major timber mill down the Bay in Toledo, and also Lincoln City that is heavily based upon tourism with a large 1st Nation Casino (Chinook Winds).

Southern Oregon

This should be ultimate Trump county, being not only heavily White Working Class, with an extremely small percentage of ethnic minorities, as well as a statewide Republican stronghold since the days of the Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Douglas Co---- RV/EV (62D-62*R-32I). Early returns (31D-52R-17I). Not anywhere close to a flip county, despite Dukakis winning 46% back in '88, but the weekend numbers show an interesting result where in an overwhelming Republican, older county, heavily Vietnam era vets, Dems are actually outpacing Rep turnout levels after the busiest day to date in terms of Oregon ballot returns.

Coos Co---RV/EV (62D-61R-33I). Early returns (7.9kD-8,3kR-3.7I). Still thinking Coos will stay (R) for Trump, it is interesting that in a New Deal solid Union county, Trump is not cleaning the clock, even with Republicans. I'm actually starting to wonder if Clinton will significantly outperform Obama/Kerry/Gore numbers in certain parts of Southern Oregon where Bill Clinton is still extremely popular on economic issues, as well as picking "Option Nine" when it came to the settlement of the Oregon Timber Wars, that provided all types of economic revitalization for depressed timber communities in Oregon.

Curry Co- RV/EV (67D-67*R-37I). EVs are (35D-46R-19I). Home to the greatest percentage of retirees in Oregon (32% 65+) but still a county with a relatively high rate of college-educated retirees, although the overall flavor of the county is still definitely blue.

Josephine Co--- RV/EV (67D-63R-31I). EVs are (31D-51R-18I). Am a bit confused on this one honestly, even though my wife grew up down here. One of the few counties where Dem turnout surged over the weekend (+16D- +9%R- +5% I) in what is essentially the stronghold of the Republican Party in Southern Oregon.... I'm assuming it's a vote gap and the numbers will readjust tomorrow, but if Republican turnout lags Dem turnout when we get to Election Day, it's a major sign that OR-02 CD is in jeopardy in 2018/2020.

Jackson Co--- RV/EV (56D-55R-28I). EVs are (41D-43R-17I). This is an Obama '08/Romney '12 county that I think will become a Clinton '16 County. It is a mixture of an overwhelmingly college/artist town (Ashland) thrown in with a mix of Middle-Class Cali retirees (Medford) that vote Republican and then throw in rural areas including heavily Republican farming/logging areas with some smaller areas of "getting back to the land", and then some heavily historically mill towns with a ton of old timers, and it is not a natural recipe for Clinton. Still, see my other comments about Southern Oregon counties above and either Trump's message doesn't really play down South, or there are a ton of Sanders/Trump cross-over votes, OR indies tend to swing a bit Rep in Douglas, Coos, Josephine and slightly (D) in Jackson.


Eastern/Central Oregon:

Deschutes Co--- RV/EV (66D-66R-40I). Reps narrowly take the lead on partisan turnout. Indies tend to be a bit flip-floppy in both National and statewide elections, but a ton of college educated Anglo retirees and Cali expats chilling out there.  Still on my Clinton '16 flip list.

Wasco Co--- RV/EV (58D-60R-30I). Total EV (42D-39R-19I).

Umatilla & Malheur- The question is not if they will flip, but what the final margins will be in two counties that (24% and 33% Latino respectively) and also about 10% Mormon.

Still feeling pretty good about my Oregon county map: