absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

I hope this reasoning is right. African American voters have been disproportionately likely to vote early, so if this is just other voters catching up, then there is less to worry about.

I'm still going to feel queasy until all the votes are counted, given all that is at stake.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

Not a lot of Latino's in Iowa

There are more than you might think but probably not enough turnout to actually impact a statewide race.

Enough to piss off Steve King.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795411822769766406

That's expected. What's surprising is he's seeing 60/40 for Clinton/Trump among Cuban Republicans. That's scary. Southern Florida will be a bloodbath for Trump on Tuesday.

Trump isn't even going to win the Republican-friendly Cuban-American vote in Florida and yet the LA Times poll thinks he's at 42%% with Latinos nationally. Lol.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

Well, they always say that California is the state that sets national trends, and we've seen what has happened there since Prop 187 in 1994. Certainly at least a possibility something similar happens nationwide.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

now the NC GOP adds insult to injury and brags about their suppression victory.


https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/795669824135430145



record numbers in MN

http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/07/wowsa-a-record-busting-568196-ballots-already-accepted-in-minnesota/

Yup, Trump takes NC because R's suppressed early voting for AA. Was a must win state for Trump. Looking good there.

Disgusting and un-American. You should be ashamed of yourself. Don't worry. The educated vote will swing and AAs will turn out on ED. You will lose the state despite your nasty celebration.

I'm saving my ire for the conservatives on the Supreme Court who gutted the Voting Rights Act.