absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[psychprofessor]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on Trump in NC

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97 T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

[psychprofessor]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

I don't think it's fair to say that.

[psychprofessor]

538 has her 0.2 up in polls-only. Hardly a big advantage, black turnout is down as well.

Trump hasn't led a live interview poll of North Carolina since September

[psychprofessor]

oh my...

Sam SteinVerified account
‏@samsteinhp
@rebeccagberg says trump paid a firm $750k to come in and help with door knocking in Florida because he lacked ground game there

[psychprofessor]

Looks like 31K in Broward early vote today plus another 18.5K vote by mail ballots that haven't been counted by the state's website yet but are on the county website.

Broward's VBM tally is 153,448. The state's VBM count for Broward is 134,982

And best EV day in Alachua - big DEM strong hold...you can tell Schale is starting to feel good about FLA

[psychprofessor]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

[psychprofessor]

gosh from steve schale's twitter feed it looks like a HUGE florida dem day

Palm Beach County, FL today -- almost 1500 more in-person votes than any other day this cycle.

I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

So they said the kids don't vote. Guess what just had its biggest EV day?  

Alachua County, home of East Florida Seminary! cc: @guycecil

Dems pushing 150k margin in Broward after 2nd biggest in-person EV day where they were ~ +14k voters & almost 11k NPA voted

[psychprofessor]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

[psychprofessor]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

[psychprofessor]

Hello Arizona...you know, yuge rallies and all
 
Matea GoldVerified account
‏@mateagold
Speaker at Clinton rally says there are 20,000 people gathered in Tempe to see her.

[psychprofessor]

Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

I certainly don't see it like that. NV is really close to literally over. This seems to be the kind of day that helps FL feel solidly lean-y. It's a big movement, but I at least still think there's a big gulf in odds between the two.

No, it shows that the Mook machine actually works. He saved her bacon in 2008 in the Nevada caucus and Ohio primary; he saved her again this year in the Iowa caucus and Nevada caucus..the guy knows how to organize.

[psychprofessor]

hello nasty women!

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  11m11 minutes ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted daniel a. smith
Seeing this is NC, too. Women engagement one of the under-reported stories of the election

daniel a. smith @electionsmith
Florida’s Gender Gap: Nearly 4.5 Million Floridians have voted. 55% are women… https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/floridas-gender-gap-nearly-4-5-million-floridians-have-voted-55-are-women …

[psychprofessor]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

Is Mook gay?

um yasss

[psychprofessor]

dem crush it in clark by nearly 5k today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sorceror43/status/794039503916822529

even ralston is impressed :-)

[psychprofessor]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

Nevada quickly moving out of play

CNN said Clark goes to Trump, though. What to believe, real votes tallied or a CNN poll with N/A listed for Hispanics in the cross-tabs?

[psychprofessor]

Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:

Metro PDX----

Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County)  is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)



Mid-Valley---

Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only  +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.

Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).

Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.

Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.

Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.

Coastal Oregon:

Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....

Southern Oregon

Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.

Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.

Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....

Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.

Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D.  Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...

Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...

What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....

Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.

I really like reading these...thanks for posting

[psychprofessor]

@LatinoDecisions prediction: Record Latino turnout with Clinton 79% to 18% for Trump. Would be historic.

[psychprofessor]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
Blog updated.
More than half vote in.
Trump/Heck math problem.
Next 2 days key.
GOP House seats, #nvleg may be gone.

[psychprofessor]

Clinton may win Duval County. That's great. This is in line with Quinnipiac and SurveyMonkey polls.

If Clinton wins Duval she will most assuredly win the state. Schale seemed to think if EV continues on the current trajectory, Florida should be called pretty early on Tuesday night.

[psychprofessor]

Ds overperform 2012 Firewall considerably above 60k.

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2016: Ds +5,794

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2012: Ds +5,673

I told you it looked a lot like 2012.

Well, if tomorrow is gonna look like 2012, we are in for about 50k early votes in Clark. On the last day of EV in Clark four years ago, 48,000 people showed up. Tomorrow could be a bonanza.

[psychprofessor]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.

The unaffiliated vote in NC is WAY up, which is heavy young, urban, and comprised of more women than men. That can only be a good sign.

As for the AA votes, they were posted on this thread earlier, I believe. They will be updated soon though.

Unaffiliated is up more than D's and R's comparable to 2012 in NC, and this is what Nate Cohn is finding:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  7h7 hours ago Washington, DC
@tylermacro10 @BowTiePolitics  in our data, clinton has a meaningful chunk of unaffiliated republican primary voters who have voted early

[psychprofessor]

Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who directed Obama's first successful Florida campaign in 2008, said the intensity of early voting, diversity of Florida's electorate, the fact that women are outvoting men by 55 percent to 45 percent and the Hispanic turnout in the I-4 corridor are all markers that point to a Clinton victory in Florida. In Jacksonville on Thursday, Schale had a private meeting with the president and told him Clinton will carry Florida, just as he correctly predicted an Obama win eight years ago.

[psychprofessor]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Indies lean D in NV, so he's pretty much toast. The Clark county firewall is huge right now too and Rs are not doing even close to well enough in Washoe.

Here's your answer for Nevada:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  2h2 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))
I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive.

[psychprofessor]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

My "indie" are UPA but not early voting number, just exit totals.  34% of the voters (in CNN exit - caveat there) were UNA. 43% BO, 50% MR, 7% other.

States Hillary never lost in 2008 and 2016: Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mook was her field guy in 2008 for Nevada and Ohio. Mook orchestrated her organization this year in the caucus. He knows Nevada...he knows Ohio...trust in the Mook machine

[psychprofessor]

Tom Bonier

"NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP)."

same thing is happening in florida..lower propensity dem voters are voting