absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

A tweetstorm by Nick Riccardi on the nature of the D advantage in CO starts here:

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/793840263089180672

Solid good news overall, and the fact that not even Emerson can show Trump leading here jives with the D strength this year.

[Dr. Arch]

According to MU-Law, Clinton is winning the EV in WI 65 to 25 (+40), which is a huge break of Is and Rs towards HRC because D's are near the mid-50s here in the EV currently.

[Dr. Arch]

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions
LD statistical model projecting voter turnout by Prof. @justinhgross forecasts 13.1-14.7 million Latino votes cast, up from 11.2M in 2012

Very spooky numbers for Trump, as expected.

[Dr. Arch]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

Its definitely not great in either, at the same time it isnt great for Trump.  And AA turnout is going up quite quickly with more voting places open. Its qutie clear a large chunk (though not all) of the turnout issue is the GOP slimy neo Jim Crow crackdown on voting

Note that Obama lost CO in the early vote by 2 and still scored a solid win.

[Dr. Arch]

Last week, I'd agree as of today I am much more conflicted as it seems to be increasing quite a bit atm. Will probably be somewhat lower but a major decline i do not think will occur as some on here are predicting.

This

[Dr. Arch]

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

Exactly. Hispanic voting %s are WAY up, so the share on other ends will also decrease subsequently even if their numbers go up too.

[Dr. Arch]

Also, interesting to note when Obama carried NC in 2008 after we were going through the worst recession in a long time and he was the FIRST AA candidate to be running from a major party in the general election:
                        Obama              McCain
Popular vote   2,142,651   2,128,474
Percentage    49.70%             49.38%

He carried the state by a mere 14,177 votes.

But yes HRC will outperform Obama and carry the state, really?

Trump is appealing to uneducated voters, which makes the bottom fall off from educated voters, give and take. NC has a huge share of educated voters who would be fine voting for Romney and McCain, but would never vote for Trump. It's really that simple.

[Dr. Arch]

Over 31 million votes have been cast per Elect Project.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure how many times I have to remind people that Rs =! votes for Trump in FL. Cuban R crossovers. We've seen it in Latino Decisions, early voting polls of FL, and so forth.

[Dr. Arch]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

Again, we're doing over 3 points better than Obama did.

[Dr. Arch]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

The poll was 9% hispanic.

Yea... Wasnt even 2014 like 14% hispanic?

this isn't the forum to debate a poll but c'mon, the pollster in the article explicitly stated he under-sampled latino's...is that not a red flag?

Why would they purposefully do that?

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

This may be the last day Rs lead in the early vote despite so many Dixiecrat switchers this year.

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

[Dr. Arch]

Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

I certainly don't see it like that. NV is really close to literally over. This seems to be the kind of day that helps FL feel solidly lean-y. It's a big movement, but I at least still think there's a big gulf in odds between the two.

No, it shows that the Mook machine actually works. He saved her bacon in 2008 in the Nevada caucus and Ohio primary; he saved her again this year in the Iowa caucus and Nevada caucus..the guy knows how to organize.

In no way am I saying FL wont' end up in her column, or even that it won't look very very very good by the end of the week. But it's wrong, it's factually and plainly wrong, to say that evidence points to NV and FL looking equally likely.

Yeah, you're right. Nevada is practically sealed.

[Dr. Arch]

hello nasty women!

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  11m11 minutes ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted daniel a. smith
Seeing this is NC, too. Women engagement one of the under-reported stories of the election

daniel a. smith @electionsmith
Florida’s Gender Gap: Nearly 4.5 Million Floridians have voted. 55% are women… https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/floridas-gender-gap-nearly-4-5-million-floridians-have-voted-55-are-women …

Beautiful

[Dr. Arch]

not EV but......arizona.....wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/HillaryforAZ/status/793984222339874816/video/1

that just shows you how many trump dems there are bro

That's some great energy coming from AZ!

[Dr. Arch]

Are FL Puerto Ricans voting?  Yes.

% of EV Hispanics with no previous voting history:

Statewide: 23%
Polk: 32%
Osceola: 31%
Orange: 29%

Told ya

[Dr. Arch]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

Is Mook gay?

First openly gay major campaign manager

[Dr. Arch]

I will take my accolades on Tuesday.

[Dr. Arch]

This could be a decisive number re: Puerto Rican turnout

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794018888581312512

Does anybody have a rough estimate of what that translates to in raw votes?

Hundreds of thousands.

This could be a decisive number re: Puerto Rican turnout

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794018888581312512

Does anybody have a rough estimate of what that translates to in raw votes?

I don't, but Steve sure does!

@steveschale  14m14 minutes ago


@ElectProject about 612K Hispanics through Tue, 143K with no previous voting history. 290K with 0 or 1 of 3 history.

Yep. Puerto Rico is extremely populous despite its size, and all that movement out of the island was bound to put the finger on the scale, so to speak, in places like FL, GA, NY, and TX.

[Dr. Arch]

Dang, if those numbers are accurate, could Polk flip?

Depends on how far the population sprawl has gone and, of course, turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

(Apologies if this has already been posted)

Florida in-person EV stats by county:

http://brianamos.com/maps/flearlyvote.html

You can isolate individual dates or look at cumulative trends. 

Very nice. You can see Ds picking up momentum in that last couple of days.

[Dr. Arch]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

[Dr. Arch]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

Looking good! The fact that there has been a huge spike of unaffiliateds, and they are majority women is a really good sign.