absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

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You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Well if it's a 10 point lead 55-45, that puts the current lead at less than 2.

I should add Ralston was at the DNC.

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Dem early ballots down from 46% to 40% while R has stayed the same. Blamed on lower black turnouts.

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I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

you got it wrong
trump has it in the bags

Lets it play it this way:

2012 D 893
2016 D 887

2012 R 585
2016 R 644

Clinton is underperforming Obama in 2012 at this point in early voting by some 70,000 votes. FYI Obama lost NC.

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He is counting voter registration and making the wrong assumptions that a 6 point lead in voter registration means Clinton is leading by 6 points. In fact, many polls of Nevada do assume Hillary gets a big lead in sampled Democrats to sampled Republicans , but still showed the race to be extremely close.

2016 early votes
323466   0.42 D registered
277415   0.36 R registered
166532   0.22 I registered
767413   

and here is a scenario using this data where Trump can be LEADING at the moment
D registered (82% vote Hillary, 8.5% vote Trump)
R registered (6.5% vote Hillary, 85% vote Trump)
I registered (40% vote Hillary, 50% vote Trump) (Romney won by 7% in 2012)
Total H 349095   
Total T 349339 <-- Trump ahead at the moment

The assumptions of voting habits of D, R and I are based on the latest 4 polls in NV.
These polls in NV have consistently shown that D break for Trump more often than R for Hillary.
The four NV polls has Trump ahead in registered I by an average of 12 points.

The key takeaway is Trump needs some combination of 3.5% more crossover voters + 10% edge in Independents to be ahead in NV, based on early voting data.

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If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

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In reality, if only a small percentage of these D voters move to the Trump camp it will make a race very close.

For example, in Nevada there is a 6% difference between registered D votes and registered R votes.
If only 3% more of these D votes switch to Trump than registered R switch to Clinton, Trump will win, providing he does well with independents.

In fact, in the recent CNN poll in Nevada, there were 8% more registered D voters in this poll but Trump won by 6%.

 
Go to page 7 if you don't believe me:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

How do you or anyone know who these D, R and I registered voters are voting for?

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A really terrible CNN poll is not the solidest of evidence for your little theory here champ.

Every Nevada poll assumes there are more registered D voters than R voters. It's already baked in. I am simply pointing out, you cannot draw a conclusion from looking at the party registration.

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This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

http://static.lakana.com/nxsglobal/lasvegasnow/document_dev/2016/11/02/poll_12593657_ver1.0.pdf

Another poll showing 16% of D are cross voting for Trump, but only 11% of R are cross voting for Hillary.

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This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

http://static.lakana.com/nxsglobal/lasvegasnow/document_dev/2016/11/02/poll_12593657_ver1.0.pdf

Another poll showing 16% of D are cross voting for Trump, but only 11% of R are cross voting for Hillary.

In other words, public polling in NV is junk and we all have known this already. But if you want to die on this hill, by all means go for it.

Come Tuesday, Ralston and Co will be surprised when they find out how many D's crossed over to Trump. There is no 6% lead in Nevada. We will see.

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And why do you assume that unaffiliated voters will break for Trump, and that there won't be a decent number of R voters who don't vote for Trump? You can cherry-pick, and make assumptions which are likely erroneous until the cows come home (oops, sorry, I forgot that this phrase apparently isn't PC enough.) The data strongly suggests that Hillary is heavily favored in Nevada, and Trump winning it is less likely than Hillary winning it by double digits.

Every poll in Nevada this past month have had more D breaking for Trump than R breaking for Hillary. Every poll in Nevada had him winning I.

If he gets 3% more crossover votes than Hillary, and a 10% margin in I, the race is tied.

If you believe there is no crossover, and a split in I, yes it is over. But polls predicted that democratic voters will outnumber republican voters, but in the end Trump will get the more votes. It's a simple concept but hard for many to understand.

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GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

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GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

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GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

]

Say waht you will, Trump wins in CO if independents break for him by more than 10. You are telling me you know who the indys voted for this year?

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Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

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The low black turnout is going to make things easy for Trump in FL.

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Terrific news for the Trump!!!! A 33% decrease in absentee ballots in the city of Detroit!

"More than 1,247,000 Michigan voters have requested absentee ballots, an increase of more than 265,000 from four years ago; and 918,992 of those ballots have been returned, which is up more than 245,000 from this point in the 2012 election."

However for the city of Detroit, that is not the case.

“Absentee ballots are a little modest this year,” said Daniel Baxter, director of elections for the city of Detroit, noting  that 54,460 have been issued and  38,796 have been returned. That compares with 81,000 voters casting absentee ballots in 2012. This is a decrease of 33% from the 2012 total.

“The city of Detroit is predominantly African-American, and when President Obama ran in 2008 every person, every Detroiter, felt a need to go to the polls on Election Day,” Baxter said. “Then in 2012, we saw the same phenomenon. This election, I think that what we're seeing right now is a lack of enthusiasm as a result of President Obama not being on the ballot."

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/03/absentee-voting-michigan-detroit/93187540/

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The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

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But black people aren't voting! Ralstonsucks told me!

Wow one county.

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Ralston trolls so hard:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  5m5 minutes ago
I'll be on MSNBC at 6 PM PT with @chrislhayes talking about how I made a mistake in my math and Trump has Nevada locked. Or not.

Ironiclly, he did make a mistake in his math.

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http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

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http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

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Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

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http://www.l2political.com/blog/2016/11/07/early-voting-battleground-states-oh-az-nc-fl-wi-co-ga-nv-new-registrants-nationwide-mi/

I took their non partisan #s, did the math of the lean, and added it to the D/R #.

OH
Democrats: 50.3%, Republicans 49.5%

AZ
Democrats: 44%, Republicans 47%

NC
Democrats:51%  Republicans: 48%

FL
Democrats: 48% Republicans 52% (missing weekend data)

GA– my state
Republican 43.5% // Democrat 32.7% // 23.6% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 65.3% D // 34.6% R)
Gender 57.6% F // 42.3% M

Net GA Democrats 48% Republicans 52%

Clark County, NV – Early Voting Returned Ballots as of 11/4/16
Republican 33.0% // Democrat 45.9% // 16.0% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 39.2% D // 60.7% R)

Net Clark County Democrats 57% Republicans 43%

Where did you get those Nevada nonpartisan numbers? Are they for realz?

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Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

Wow. If I'm doing my math right, Trump would have to win ED vote 68-32 to pull even

Trump will need a 32% lead, if he really is losing by 10% right now. But turnout might be higher than this. Then he will need a smaller margin.

EDIT:
If EV is 68% of total as Ozymandias wrote, Trump will need a 21% points lead.

where did you get these numbers? link?

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NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.