absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[bilaps]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

[bilaps]

In FL if i added correctly, last update has R+1530 votes. Day before yesterday was R + 7008

It's more like R+ 17,456

It's total advantage. I was talking about last update, last day.

[bilaps]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

[bilaps]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

Why the hell would people lie to pollsters? This secret Trump voter argument doesn't make sense, because there is no reason for people to hide their intentions.

I am sorry, this just reeks of desperation.

people lie all the time

upshot/nyt said that 16% of the people who SAID they ALREADY voted, actualy didn't. so i don't know why but obviously they lied and 16% is a huuuge number

[bilaps]

you can find it it nate cohn's tweets, from few days ago. i don't have time for now to look for it.

[bilaps]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

For NC they release all data on early/absentee balots.

[bilaps]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

[bilaps]

Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

yeah, because one guy is having an erection on twitter, florida is good as gone. you people are amazing.

[bilaps]

Soooo after that guy on twitter had an erection followed by multipleones here, new FL data still shows Republicans ahead. In NC black early vote is now under 22%, 21.9% to be exact and even though Dems are picking up 2012 pace, it's share of EV is constantly down. Today is 0,3% down from yesterday, Reps are 0,1% up from yesterday. So far i see good numbers still in Nevada, but let's see will mr Ralston have not pleasant surprise when "cows come home" and independents break heavily towards Trump. Not saying it will just it could be. People don't get it that IF this race is really 1-3 pts nationaly for Clinton, NOBODY knows how map will look like on tuesday.

[bilaps]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

[bilaps]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

Yes, Republicans have been gaining constantly -- but that's to be expected. Registration is even in CO and Republicans led in returned ballots in 2012. D lead of 3~ points wasn't sustainable. Numbers are still good for Clinton obviously.  

The people who "know" CO have guessed that Trump needs to hit R+7 to be competitive.

As I said it before I don't buy that. This election is like no other and people are wrong when thinking everything will be like before. What i'm trying to say is IF Trump wins CO and some other battlegrounds than he will have a big lead among U's, indies or whatever you call them and in midwest among democrats.

Having said that, NV looks safe D. What was 2012 D over R percentage in EV? I always forget that number. There was some tightening in week 2 in NV but after yesterday Dems are again plus 6,2% if i added correctly.

[bilaps]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
Important for understanding voter reg trends: Clinton has a 42-21 lead among new unaffiliated voters in PA/FL/NC: https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL

That was according to his polls.

[bilaps]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

[bilaps]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

[bilaps]

Ralston and Schale are political hacks. Doesn't mean they are wrong, just saying.

[bilaps]

I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.