absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Confused Democrat]

I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.

White women will be higher too no?

[Confused Democrat]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

IDK, probably they are, but it is certainly not what this picture tells us.

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

[Confused Democrat]

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

Lets turn it around. Whites is up by 5% points, while Others is down by the same amount.
Of course, it might be a realignment among Whites (more educated or more female etc), but generally the more Whites => the better Trump's doing.

If we stick with this logic, 53% of voters in FL are still breaking heavily for Clinton. That's not including her share of the white vote.

[Confused Democrat]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

IDK, probably they are, but it is certainly not what this picture tells us.

I doubt such a large increase in hispanic turnout is a good sign for Trump.

As a share of the electorate, 12% more Hispanics are voting, perhaps 70-30 in favour of Clinton. 14% fewer Blacks are voting, who usually go for the Democrat 90-10. Where's the "good news"? I mean, it's possible—even likely—that Clinton is winning more of the white vote, but at most these numbers make the situation just seem like a wash when compared to 2012...

Her margin might be even better than 70-30 with Hispanics.

[Confused Democrat]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

[Confused Democrat]

How is California looking?

Reps are giving Dems a run for their money in California. This state could turn blue with the way things are looking now. Hillary will be lucky to win there.

/s

[Confused Democrat]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

Wow, he pulled ahead in Colorado?!?!

Oh wait, Romney won EV in Colorado and still lost the state.

[Confused Democrat]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

Apples-to-apples, which I'll be able to do tomorrow, by your metric, Trump should be "ahead" by 5 or 6 points then in CO. Nevada has moved to the right with the early vote as compared to 2016.

And to you other folks "gleeful" right now about Nevada, Trump's not deviating 3,000 miles out of his way tomorrow to have a rally in Reno by accident. If it were "over" there as you claim it is, he would have picked Michigan or another closer East Coast state to campaign in.

I'm surprised you get internet reception in the bunker. Won't matter in a few days though. Your dear Führer is finished.

Such tolerant people on this website. 100% Grade A human beings, labeling someone a Nazi. Keep it classy.

That statement is pretty tame when you compare it to the drivel that has come out of your candidates mouth.

[Confused Democrat]

Ralston:

Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.

[Confused Democrat]

Delusional Trumpkins on Twitter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Confused Democrat]

schale just corrected the FL number...would have been strange otherwise.

dems lead pubs by about 25k.

Remember that there's still today and tomorrow left in early voting for the big D counties, which will shore up the margin more.

I'm pretty sure all of early voting ends today in FL.

[Confused Democrat]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

[Confused Democrat]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Very important detail. Let's see how much Dems expand their lead after todays early voting.

[Confused Democrat]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  5m5 minutes ago
On Florida early voting: "911,000 Hispanics have voted—more than a third of whom did not vote in 2012" http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html …

I wonder who they're turning out for?

/s