absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Marc Caputo ‏@MarcACaputo  9m9 minutes ago
A number that should scare Trump in re: early/absentee FL vote: 54.6%. That's % of WOMEN who have voted. Women break strongly for Hillary

51% of the entire 2012 vote is already in with the early vote...Women are voting big time for Hillary...I think we can assume that Florida is strongly leaning Hillary right now.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

     Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 34,351,774 votes making up 74.3% of the entire 2012 early vote.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

I'll be super surprised if Hillary loses Florida. Democrats are doing very well.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

Florida = leaning Clinton
NC = toss up
Co = Leaning Clinton


Hopefully, Washoe county Nv has a democrat win tonight. fingers crossed!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

What are the final numbers for Clark tonight?

They come out around 10:30pm pst.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

The states I am worried about are Pa and NH. I don't like the way the polls are looking...Is this justified?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

colorado's liberal marijuana policies were a mistake.

I don't think so..Better then throwing millions of people in prison like we currently are....

It is called freedom.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

Wait what?

Between the huge surge of women and latino's I'll put Florida in the likely column. The door is slamming shut on Trumps face.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hit the turning point in CO. No way Rs match 2012 with time left.

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When does early voting end in CO?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

Wow

I can't see how Florida isn't in the bag for Hillary with data like. 29 more electorals will go along ways to making sure Donald Trump never sets foot into the white house.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Also, I'd rather be the person worrying about people leaving lines during early voting because so many supporters are turning out rather than a person worrying about smooth sailing because no one is voting at all.

Maybe they could mail them in instead?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I hope she makes a stop in PA, Michigan and Co.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

What's even better news is compared to 2012 hispanics voted republican like 39/60 in Florida, but this year it will be much lower. I've seen polls showing Trump in the mid 20's in hispanic support in this state.

Higher turn out(larger share of the electorate) + more favorable for the democratic candidate = winning.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

How is hispanic turnout in Colorado? If it is anything like Florida and Nevada = Gone.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Add on top of that Hispanics are probably also coming out big time in Colorado! Republican Hispanics included!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Who else thinks that the Latino electorate will be around 14%+ this election? I sure do...Heck, if they come out like African Americans did last year = 16-17%. There's never going to be a better reason to vote against a republican!

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

Can we say that the fat lady is warming up?

Between being ahead of 2012s early vote by 286k and the reality that this county is mostly hispanic that hate Trump far more then they disliked Romney. you'd think.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I am calling florida, Virginia, and Nevada as safe clinton....

Trump will need to take Michigan or Pa to stay in the game.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/latino-early-vot-surges-from-florida-to-nevada

If they're coming out like nevada in colorado...well, tuesday is looking like a very exciting day.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Republicans hate democracy and anything that doesn't send America back to 1790. They must all be defeated...Every freaking one.