absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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I really don't think black turnout will be anywhere near the levels of 2008/2012 with Obama not on the ballot. An old white woman just isn't going to get them out like Obama.

I expect Hispanics will be higher given the things Trump has said about them.

btw....AAs are voting at normal levels, not low ones.

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A tweetstorm by Nick Riccardi on the nature of the D advantage in CO starts here:

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/793840263089180672

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Ye old bait-and-switch post by Michael McDonald: all is well in CO so far.

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Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/8714/7689/5921/NALEO_Latino_Battleground_States_Toplines.pdf

63 - 23 Clinton, but with a relatively long time in the field.

I suppose you can pick whichever in this case, but LD has been pretty accurate in the past and the TargetSmart poll would lend credence to this defection.

Reading these posts online here of all liberals you would think trump was down with hispanics by 40-50% in FLorida, not the case obviously.

I'd say there is plenty of evidence to support both conclusions. You can assert that "no way he's down by 40 with FL latinos" if you want, but you are by no means on solid ground when you say that, and you should at least acknowledge that.

LD overestimated Obama's margin both times IIRC. (Not 100% sure)

TargetSmart, well...

Looks like they were a little bit Obama-friendly in '12. Couldn't find '08, though I didn't look hard.

LD 2012 final proj: 75-23
2012 Exit poll final: 71-27

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

That's what I wanna hear. Make NH+ME-02 disappear from the math.

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Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

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Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democrat. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant in the early vote. Rs won the early vote by 500 votes in 2012. If Dems even break even in Washoe EV, Nevada's way over (which we already know from Clark).

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@steveschale  57s58 seconds ago

Let's look at the Orange numbers another way.

Dem + NPA = 72% of today's votes.

And among NPA reg voters in Orange, 58% are non-white.

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Not sure how one comes to be worried about CO. EVs (which are....real votes) look absolutely fantastic and make up almost all votes in CO and no poll has shown a number like that ever in CO, either. How does one argue for worry?

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didn't want to debate that at length...but the pollster has been ciruli associates ...afaik an A pollster on 538.

When the internal numbers have obvious problems AND you're an outlier, Nate giving you an A doesn't mean everything you publish must be right.

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Schale thought this day was likely....but you could tell he was getting nervous. He will (and should) stay nervous to see it keep happening, but you can tell he's a happy man tonight.

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Schale is spending his night posting .gifs of Joe Biden after days of shouting about voting in all caps. He likes tonight a whole lot.

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Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

I certainly don't see it like that. NV is really close to literally over. This seems to be the kind of day that helps FL feel solidly lean-y. It's a big movement, but I at least still think there's a big gulf in odds between the two.

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Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

yeah, because one guy is having an erection on twitter, florida is good as gone. you people are amazing.

>one person asks a legit question, gets an immediate, reasonable answer in the negative

>"YOOOUUU PPPEEEOOOPPPLEEEEEE"

Yeah okay bud. Take aspirin, your heart's gonna explode.

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Is Florida close to as good for Clinton as Nevada is with this surge of democratic support?

I certainly don't see it like that. NV is really close to literally over. This seems to be the kind of day that helps FL feel solidly lean-y. It's a big movement, but I at least still think there's a big gulf in odds between the two.

No, it shows that the Mook machine actually works. He saved her bacon in 2008 in the Nevada caucus and Ohio primary; he saved her again this year in the Iowa caucus and Nevada caucus..the guy knows how to organize.

In no way am I saying FL wont' end up in her column, or even that it won't look very very very good by the end of the week. But it's wrong, it's factually and plainly wrong, to say that evidence points to NV and FL looking equally likely.

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Florida is a much bigger state than Nevada, so it can't be as accurately gauged by a Jon Ralston-type figure. There's only one Jon Ralston.

You're completely right, of course, but quickly shifting political ID and a much closer race in-state also make FL way harder to call than NV, where the polls and EV have never been that close.

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Wow, just.......wow!

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not EV but......arizona.....wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/HillaryforAZ/status/793984222339874816/video/1

If Clinton can outdo Trump and turn more than 15 of those into real votes, that's great indeed.

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This could be a decisive number re: Puerto Rican turnout

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794018888581312512

Does anybody have a rough estimate of what that translates to in raw votes?

I don't, but Steve sure does!

@steveschale  14m14 minutes ago


@ElectProject about 612K Hispanics through Tue, 143K with no previous voting history. 290K with 0 or 1 of 3 history.

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Any raw numbers out of Texas?

I don't follow a reporter that covers it close. The SoS will put the #s up here:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

But they don't have today's yet, apparently.

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And we already knew this, but Nate Cohn is impressed with early indications in NC. In the immortal words of Ice Cube, today was a goooooood day.

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794042342646943744

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GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794041861258166272

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GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

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Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.
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You're right to point that out. The fact that Trump's rally yielded basically no change at all, however, does give some sense of GOTV differences (differences which are likely to keep playing out this week).

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The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

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The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

Oh, good to know. I'm holding out hope!

Given the Guilford #s and Nate Cohn's hint that the early #s he saw from today were very good, we should definitely see something noticeable. But, of course, good to wait for the charts.